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Irvin Mermelstein

Joined: 23/03/20


Comments by Irvin Mermelstein
Is This Month's 80% Surge In Boeing Shares Justified? Jun 11, 2020 1:15AM ET
Short. Long way down to March low.
Stock Market Confusion Jun 10, 2020 7:22PM ET
Tim, I'm right there with you. The market has become the political tool you suggest, but I think the situation is abnormal and all traders can readily see that. Technical analysis does not work when the Fed chair's purpose is to undermine the natural workings of the market. One of the new stock geniuses responded to a comment about manipulating the market by saying I did not understand the new world of "unlimited liquidity" ushered in by the Fed. You're making a lot of sense, so keep writing.
The Unfolding Soft Patch In S&P 500 Jun 10, 2020 6:52PM ET
Roger that
The Unfolding Soft Patch In S&P 500 Jun 10, 2020 6:51PM ET
Shorted all day. When your investing strategy is "the Fed will provide," you shouldn't be investing in this market.
Fed eases terms of Main Street loans, says registration will begin soon Jun 08, 2020 7:32PM ET
Landlords are going to want their rent for July, including malls. I dummy really think as a lawyer that governors have the right to suspend a landlord's right to evict a tenant for non-payment. This has been more like forbearance. People are getting letters from Bill collectors. There was a buying frenzy between March and September 2929, after a mini-crash. Dow hit a top at 350, then fell until July 1932 to a bottom 89.5% off the high. Parallels today, including cheap money and the need for additions ro market liquidity, are notable.
Fed eases terms of Main Street loans, says registration will begin soon Jun 08, 2020 7:12PM ET
Interest rates are still high. 5 year note is still too short. The last thing business need that are near bankruptcy is more debt.
Fed eases terms of Main Street loans, says registration will begin soon Jun 08, 2020 4:07PM ET
Now Powell is going to fi ance the entire economy. Zombie companies like Hertz, in bankruptcy, will be getting their revenue from the Fed rather than by doing business.
Powell spoke almost daily with Mnuchin in April Jun 06, 2020 3:38PM ET
Worst fed chair ever.
Fed's Powell scheduled for congressional appearances June 16-17 Jun 06, 2020 3:36PM ET
Powell has done incredible harm to the markets and the Fed. He talks too ****much. Another Trump weasle.
Nasdaq Jumps as Job Gains Firm Up Bets on Economic Rebound Jun 06, 2020 2:02PM ET
Blue smoke and mirrors.
Nasdaq Jumps as Job Gains Firm Up Bets on Economic Rebound Jun 06, 2020 2:01PM ET
Did you read the jobs report? Did you not see the note at the end of the Report, as reported in the Washington Post? "When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate. "The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May." So, unemployment was up, not down, yet the Market will believe any *****Trump announces. The amount of market capitalization added on Friday by the 800+ point gain in the Dow was entirely fictional. Get your facts straight.
Global shares hit 3-month highs on economic recovery hopes Jun 03, 2020 1:21AM ET
This isn't a healthy market. In March 1929, the market experienced a serious correction because of liquidity problems. Investment bankers (like JP Morgan) propped up the market by large infusions of additiona liquidity. This worked. The Dow rallied hugely for the next six months, as investors thought the bull market was permanent. The Dow topped at 440 in late September, followed by the Great Crash of 1929. While there were rallies, from 1929 to 1932 the market continued to fall, hitting bottom in July 1932, 89% off the 440 top.Once the market stops pricing in all the happy talk by the federal government, it will fall. The Bear Market of 1929-1932 is the only precedent for market price action at 25% unemployment.
Stocks - U.S. Futures Point to Lower Open; Dow Set to Drop 150 Points May 22, 2020 12:11AM ET
Trump had warnings about a US pandemic of the virus in Wuhan starting December 2019. This is happening on his watch. The world notices when almost 100,000 die in the US, home of the CDC, when Greece 🇬🇷 locked down in early March and has had less than 500 dead.
Stocks - U.S. Futures Point to Lower Open; Dow Set to Drop 150 Points May 22, 2020 12:06AM ET
Columbia University modeling shows that strict lockdowns one week earlier would have saved 36,000 lives.
Tech Stocks Hitting Lifetime Highs May 22, 2020 12:02AM ET
S&P under 2950. Futures under 2920. VIX is up and has been several days this week. Bears in charge tonight. Covid 19 cases rising faster than expected after reopenings. Michigan is at 22% unemployment. No bull market has ever survived with 14.9% unemployment, and rising. Market priced in a decline in cases and a V shaped recovery. Not happening.
Sell In May – Except When This Happens May 18, 2020 8:20PM ET
I doubt it, Tim. Why pick pr3sidential election years? Pretty random. What you leave out is the market between 1929 and 1932, when the Dow went from 350 to 50. That's this market. There was a mini-crash in March 1929, followed by liquidity support, which sen the market higher fir six months. Until the support for the rising market stopped, bring on the Great Crash of September 1929. Your 50.3 level for the Dow came after almost a 3 year bear market. In July 1932, the Dow finally bottomed 89.6% down from the 9/29 high.Other than that, there is no precedent for this market. The S&P for those years will tell you the same story.Given that Jay Powell is an equity capital guy estimated to be worth $119 million. I can see why he wants to prop up the market. We don't even expect government officials to separate their private interests from their public duties anymore.The market in 1929-1932 did what ours will do: crash under the weight of 24% unemployment.
Day Ahead: Top 3 Things to Watch for May 14 May 13, 2020 9:36PM ET
Jay Powell didn't he memo. Republicans in Congress are raising deficit issues arising from all the stimulus and monetary issues about unlimited QE. What the market priced in from Powell is old news. The market has priced in a V shape recovery and return of 75% of unemployed workers to their old jobs. All wishful thinking.
Is Disney Stock A Bet Worth Making Now? May 13, 2020 6:10PM ET
As a short, yes. It's long way down to March 23 low.
S&P 500 May 12, 2020 5:51PM ET
About time. VIX up 18%. Balance of power favored bears most of the day. Wiley Coyote, it's a long way down.
Week Ahead: Optimism On Reopening To Drive Risk Sentiment Despite Bleak Data May 11, 2020 12:59AM ET
Every stock market since 1929 has followed employment up and down. This one will too. All the partying is based on federal government pronouncements that the coronavirus pandemic is basically over. The virus is already proving that to be false. New outbreaks of cases reported this weekend in China, including Wuhan City and South Korea, the latter now reconsidering relaxing lockdowns. "Opening up" means more case clusters. It promotes the pandemic. NY has fewer cases; the rest of the country, sans NY, is steadily rising. The market has priced in a bad flu; covid 19, we now know, attacks the linings of our arteries, veins and capillaries, starting in the lungs. It attacks every major organ system in the body. What we don't have priced in is the fear by all individuals of getting the virus themselves and dying or being left disabled by the disease.
U.S. Stock Prices Are Ignoring The Economic Meltdown May 11, 2020 12:30AM ET
The market has priced in a scientifically bankrupt model of the coronavirus premised on the utter falsehood that the "worst is over." The virus will prove that untrue, and quickly. This virus doesn't care if investors don't believe in it or underestimate its destructive nature. FEMA told the WH last week that by June 1--three weeks away-- we will have 200,000 new cases PER DAY, a rate that will then start doubling. We have a 6% rate of death for positive cases. So, that's 6 million new cases already expected in June, and over 300,000 deaths. The virus is going nowhere, so over the course of the next 90 days or less, we should see the death count go over 1 million. That's based on FEMA's numbers. The market appears to have priced in a return of 75% of the unemployed to their previous jobs. That's Tulip Bubble kind of thinking. All sentiment; no data. Every market before this has followed employment up and down. So will this one.
U.S. Stock Prices Are Ignoring The Economic Meltdown May 11, 2020 12:10AM ET
Excellent, clear thinking. I suggest the market is having a difficult time translating information into stock valuations because so much of the information flowing into the market is false. This market looks like Wiley Coyote just after he overshoots the cliff, looks down and finds no support. The impacts of the coronavirus on public health are barely first being felt, yet the market seems to be pricing in the end of the pandemic. As you say, I'm not chasing this market.
Northeast China hit by coronavirus infections, Wuhan reports new case May 10, 2020 3:39AM ET
This is a pandemic that was not contained in China. It has infected a percentage of the Chinese population. There is no proof that the people who became infected "recovered" became immune or no longer contagious. Officials do not really know who is "asymptomatic" because a person can be infected, contagious and quite sick without any outward respiratory symptoms or fever. China opened up its manufacturing in the face of a virus that thrives in closed spaces where people are in proximity. All the optimism in the market this week about "opening up" was completely misplaced. The virus will prove that with new cases and deaths in China and here. There will continue to be new outbreaks until there is a vaccine. Herd immunity from coronaviruses is not proven. There is no vaccine for the common cold or HIV AIDS; flu vaccines are only short term.
Northeast China hit by coronavirus infections, Wuhan reports new case May 10, 2020 3:22AM ET
This market isn't giving the novel coronavirus any respect. It is giving off signals to the public that the worst is over. The market is also having a "garbage in, garbage out" problem because it is subject to the same propaganda campaign from the White House that the virus is not real. The market is not being efficient at pricing data into stock valuations because the data it absorbs is false, conflicting and unreconcilable. If the market believes that "all those jobs are coming back" in 2020, then it's no wonder the market looks irrational.
Gaethje upsets Ferguson to win UFC interim lightweight title May 10, 2020 3:09AM ET
Definitely "essential" business.