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Canis Lupus

Joined: 03/03/20

Comments by Canis Lupus
S&P 500 Apr 29, 2020 9:24AM ET
well, it's been for a month now and still going strong. Eventually, the numbers will be less bad, and if bad still goes up, just think how more up less bad will go.
S&P 500 Apr 29, 2020 9:12AM ET
Ok, the market opens in about 20 minutes. I probably won't report much today since the writing is on the wall. There is no good data for the bears. The only chance is if the Fed says something to hurt the market, which is pretty much no chance. I was very tempted to add short yesterday, but decided to wait to see if the setups were confirmed. It's very doubtful they will be confirmed today, so I'm glad I was patient.
S&P 500 Apr 29, 2020 8:59AM ET
Everything continues to deteriorate for the bears. Sorry guys, but it looks like another missed opportunity. The scam is just too strong. Now, if the Fed say later they still support the market with all means possible, it's lights out and we pary like it's 2019.
S&P 500 Apr 29, 2020 8:43AM ET
Now the 10Y is moving up, 0.599, and dollar still down. Looks like the kins on Robinhood are in control once again.
S&P 500 Apr 29, 2020 8:41AM ET
lol they report more Gilead positive data at the same moment as bad GDP. How do they always manage to time it like that?
S&P 500 Apr 29, 2020 8:31AM ET
Dollar index is down some, but just under 100. 10Y fell below 0.6. They are mixed, as to be expected with the news today. However, I put most weight in the 10Y. So, I'm not seeing a lot if confidence by smart money and the up in futures are more likely just the children on Robinhood. We shall see.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 5:33PM ET
I agree with you 100%. Even if everything goes perfect, jobs will not come back like they were. Consumer Confidence will not just pick up where it left off. We are 70% consumer driven, without consumers we will struggle.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 5:06PM ET
nice! Facebook should take a hit then. This is a good precursor for that.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 5:01PM ET
Earnings are great an all, but what really matter is Consumer Confidence and what the Fed says. Consumer Confidence came in worse than expected. The Fed is a complete toss up. As far as I'm concerned, even if they do nothing, if they just say "we continue to support the market by any means", then the bears are screwed. If they say the economy is in a long road to recovery and they are stepping back to see how it all plays out, then the bulls are probably screwed. The 10Y and dollar index will be important tomorrow to see if risk is on or off and gage how the big money interprets what the Fed says.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 4:55PM ET
*I don't think earnings will mean much
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 4:54PM ET
yes, but that's not unexpected. Next quarter will be worse for everything. I don't think earnings won't mean much until Q4. The problem is the market is going up with expectations that Q4 will show we are back in business. I think it will be better, but not showing strength that many seem to think it will.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 4:33PM ET
yes they beat on revenue. I don't expect any of the MAGA stocks to do too bad. They all have multiple firms of revenue that may not be affected so much by all of this. I only point out the ad revenue because that is what will affect Facebook the most. Also, these are Q1 results for all of them. I'm sure they all had solid January and February meeting numbers to offset March. it's Q2 where you will see a bigger affect from the shut down.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 4:25PM ET
If Google saw slowing ad growth, that's probably going to be bad for Facebook too. Except Google has other forms of revenue. Ad revenue is Facebook's bread and butter.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 4:05PM ET
The day ended with a nice reversal setup on the VIX. Nice lower wick. If tomorrow the VIX closes over the high of today, 35.39, that will be confirmation of the reversal and time to add shorts. The ADX on the VIX and SPX are still below 25, meaning there is no trend, but nudged back up toward it.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 3:56PM ET
Headed into the close, the dollar index is just a hair away from reclaiming 100. VIX is at the highs if the day, 10Y is a hair away from going back under 0.6 and bank index is up, but we'll off it's highs. That's a solid day for the bears as risk is being turned off and money flows back to defence.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 1:04PM ET
 I'm sure I should do a lot of things that I don't. We all have our methods. I'm not going to go searching around trying to find the one that tells me what I want to hear, then change to another when I don't like what it tells me anymore. I remain consistent in good news and bad. I'm sure I should do a lot of things that I don't. We all have our methods. I'm not going to go searching around trying to find the one that tells me what I want to hear, then change to another when I don't like what it tells me anymore. I remain consistent in good news and bad.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 1:00PM ET
Victory? No victory, just a change in control for the moment. I have no idea who wins in the end, but I thought the bulls were going to put the final ******to the bears, but they fought back. I'm just stating facts and how I see interpret the numbers.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 12:49PM ET
The bears looked like they were on #9 in a 10 count to a KO this morning. This is a scene right out of Rocky. MAGA is getting hit pretty hard. VIX is back green and holding it. 10Y is back down. Dollar Index has been rising back, but needs to get back over 100. The bears are is control now. Haven't seen that in a while.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 10:52AM ET
10Y down almost 6% now. it's on a steady decline.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 10:50AM ET
Granted, we have more than half the day to go and things can change in a dime, but as of this moment, that VIX is forming one heck of a reversal setup on the daily. If you look at the VIX on the daily and go back 5 days from today, that was one heck of a reversal candle with that long upper wick that has lead us to today's lows. If it holds, today's reversal setup with confirmation tomorrow could lead back to that high. Or, anywhere higher than where we are now. I'm not calling it yet, just pointing out the possibility.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 10:42AM ET
VIX went red to green. 10Y is down almost 5%. Yet, read the headlines and nothing but good news about openings. Why the sudden rising in fear?
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 10:19AM ET
10Y is down over 4% now. The Fed has been easing their buying, so it's less to do with that. It's starting to look like risk on is turning to risk off. If big money is starting to move back to bonds, that will leave the FOMO retail without a floor. It's too early to say, but if that yield keeps dropping and the VIX keeps rising, that smells like fear resurfacing.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 10:14AM ET
I'm just sitting here waiting to see a bottom in the VIX. If a reversal candle ends the day on the daily then it confirms the next, I am adding to my short.
S&P 500 Apr 28, 2020 10:11AM ET
lol as if I weren't confused enough already. Now I have bears telling me to buy and astronauts telling me to suit up. WHAT'S HAPPENING!?!?!? lol