Alfonso Peccatiello

The Fed understands that banking stress is ultimately disinflationary as the flow of credit to the real economy slows down and so does economic activity, and inflation with it. Markets are now busy...

Market pressures on U.S. banks are now spreading to Europe, where the already troubled Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) asked the Swiss government for help and got a liquidity boost. Investors are asking the...

If a couple of regional banks were so bad at managing their interest rate risk and deposit outflow risk to blow up in a few hours, how can we really be sure other banks won’t face similar...

Silicon Valley Bank went belly up in about 30 hours. And no, it’s not the Fed’s fault. It’s the result of a very concentrated funding base, embarrassingly bad market risk management,...

There have been some positive surprises in economic data recently, and markets are busy trying to digest what this means for the Fed. Terminal rates are now priced at over 5% in the US and around 4%...

Most macro commentary focuses on the US. But over the last few months, the real golden kid has been Europe. Recently, the euro has appreciated 10%+ against the US Dollar, macro data seems to suggest a...

There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing. As inflation skyrocketed and the Fed turned hawkish, bonds were kryptonite for investors for most of 2022: it was time to be...

The YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd is back with a vengeance. Over the last month, we have seen nearly bankrupt companies rallying 100%+ in a single day, and companies reporting awful earnings staging...

Our base case remains negative EPS growth and a higher unemployment rate from May/June 2023. In other words: a recession. But what if we are wrong?Labor HoardingDuring the pandemic, companies...

Last week, FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) became the prevailing market narrative. As data seemed to further validate the soft landing narrative and central bankers became ‘’data...