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Alfonso Peccatiello

Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Opinion

Alfonso Peccatiello's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

If you have been around for the last 10 years as a global macro investor you have experienced a situation where the US stock market was pretty much the only game in town.Since 2010 US stock markets...
Animal spirits are running loose. Bitcoin just hit all-time highs; NFTs of penguins and monkeys selling for over $500k; Virtually bankrupt stocks like Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) rallying to the...
In the podcast, we covered several global macro themes and investment opportunities.Macro is back, and it’s impacting markets everywhere you look. We discussed the chart above: it shows the...
People handle money every day.But they barely understand how our monetary system really works. Universities, economists and mainstream media keep perpetrating false myths: ''Central Banks print money...
Keynes once said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.I love this quote because it speaks about the power of narratives, and my humble adaption of that would...
This week is huge: revisions to 2023 CPI, US labor market print, the Fed, and, most importantly, the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) everyone talks about.So I thought I’d share an initial...
The Fed has been running QT for a while and yet there is still abundant liquidity in the financial system.Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.3 trillion from their peak (due to QT), yet only half of...
Macro investing without deeply understanding bond markets is like eating soup with a fork.You can still somehow make it, but it’s cumbersome and unproductive. We are at a crucial juncture for...
Let me get straight to the point: our models show inflation is on its way to undershoot (!) Central Banks targets in 2024. Inflation is often a monetary phenomenon: print real-economy money too...
We just got our January 2019 moment: the Powell dovish pivot is here.Contrary to popular belief, a dovish pivot doesn’t mean the Fed is already cutting rates. Instead, it means the necessary...