Adem Tumerkan

There’s an old saying in economics: “Demographics are destiny.”Why? Because a young and dynamic population is what carries everything – from spending and productivity...

China’s economy continues to struggle 15 months after “reopening” from their COVID lockdowns (December 2022).Now, back then, many media pundits expected a booming Chinese recovery as...

Last year – around April – I wrote to you about the mounting fragility in the commercial real estate sector. And specifically how exposed the smaller-medium banks were.High vacancy rates,...

Last spring, I wrote about the fragility in the auto lending market.And since then, it appears that the auto market is showing increased signs of stress. Especially so for the subprime area. Thus, I...

China’s economy has officially fallen into deflation – for the first time in two years.The consumer price index (CPI) dipped -0.30% year-over-year in July. The producer inflation index...

Over the last month, it appears that the crowd has now taken full swing from the economic ‘hard’ landing view to the ‘soft’ landing view.Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) came in...

Back in March, I wrote about the pandemic-era savings glut and why it was premature to discuss an impending recession as long as it remained.But have no doubt, that massive $2.1-to-2.3 trillion...

While many media pundits focus on the conflicting jobs data and equity markets, there’s something else sending out warning signs.Something that’s been grossly ignored. I’m talking...

One of my favorite economic thinkers is Michael Mauboussin.His book – More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places – and various other ‘white papers’...

China’s economy is seemingly stuck. And it shouldn’t come as a surprise.The Chinese consumer is anemic. Debt has soared. Deflation mounts. Private business investment is eroding. Youth...