Michael Lebowitz

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different? Have the forty-year pre-pandemic economic...

GDP growth fell markedly over the last 30 years while corporate profit growth rose slightly. Lower interest and tax rates and increased leverage greatly benefited corporate net...

The market has underestimated the Fed every time it cuts or hikes rates meaningfully. The Fed Funds futures market and the Federal Reserve believe rates will stay around current levels for almost a...

Yield curve inversions, as we currently have, portend recessions. Banks use time and credit arbitrage to make profits. Our proxy for lending profitability is at 25-year lows, resulting in tightening...

The absolute performance of a pair of stocks, sectors, or factors can be deceiving. The relative performance of the same two securities can vastly differ from their absolute performance. We will use...

Fractional Reserve banking allows for economic growth but does have its risks. Heightened surveillance and traceability of CBDC are highly concerning. But, CBDC gives the Fed even more power. The...

The Fed seriously erred in 2021, focusing too much on supply and not enough on demand. The Fed can slow velocity but requires job losses and/or eroding consumer confidence. Forecasting the money...

We have been vocal that long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment at current yield levels. However, timing the purchase of bonds will prove difficult as numerous headwinds may temporarily...

Today an investor can earn a 4%+ return with zero risk. For the last 15 years, such would be called a pipe dream. Today it’s reality. Consequently, investors face a risk-free rate not far from...

Bank stocks have underperformed conservative sectors and the broader S&P 500. Banks typically only have an approximate 10% equity cushion supporting their assets. Such leverage creates bankruptcy...