in reality it is not me that say that, if you read every report from different sources (usda, conab, rabo ecc) you can verify that. for your info instead there is no evidence up today
He was comparing to december 2021 that export was 3.9 M. Today certified is around 2.8 M. So more or less he is right if is not 1 M will be around 800k. And that is a fact, about stock hidden in brazil everthing is possible, a friend of mine saw a donkey flying!!!
So there is a start of short covering from not commercial, to be cecked if confirmed next week, there is a confirmation of coffee deficit in 2022 and some worries on future crop, there is a slow down of december export ( ti be checked at end of the month) and an increase of stocks( Ice &GCA).