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gary leibowitz

Joined: 09/01/17

Comments by gary leibowitz
S&P 500 May 18, 2017 2:39PM ET
Emotional betting is clouding your perspective. One sided view never wins. Economic indication of a worldwide resurgence. Short term corrections can't be ruled out nor can you predict timing.. . I have for the last few months been anticipating a correction but will not predict the start. You keep fining excuses to bet one way. In a powerful historic bull run like this it's just a throw of the dart to get it right on any reversals. throw away..
S&P 500 May 09, 2017 3:22PM ET
Looks like the dollar is about to breakout. Should be a fast move from 100 to 105, within months.. Equities should not experience any correction greater than 3 to 5 percent till 105 is hit. Only a strong dollar will shake the stock market.
Dollar Index Futures May 09, 2017 3:20PM ET
Dollar about to breakout. Environment is pretty convincing for a sharp upside move. Should see 105 in next few months. that alone will cause concern for stock market. till then its upside for both dollar and stocks. Any correction here will be mild for both the dollar and stocks. . . 105 should trigger a decent pullback in both.
S&P 500 May 08, 2017 4:02PM ET
The first vote was close. It helped that they have already experienced the benefit of open borders, especially the young people. If economies start sliding again don't be surprised if they place blame where it isn't warranted.
S&P 500 May 08, 2017 12:36PM ET
The dollar and SP seems to be consolidating. I suspect they will go the same direction for a tip off on future trend. I always look at the dollar for guidance. Since we are around 100 the move off that mark should not adversely affect the stock market until it hits more critical zone. I suspect the dollar will breakout soon. A move above 105 or below 95 will cause trouble.
S&P 500 May 04, 2017 10:56AM ET
It is virtually a zero chance that we don't continue this long bull cycle for another year or two. I don't understand your assumption. Business cycles are pretty constant. The world crash and debt implosion 8 years ago created an environment that stretched the normal cycles from boom to bust. We are in the latter stages but after valuations get in balance we should actually see the largest and fastest move up from this whole cycle. In other words the best is yet to come.. . I can only agree that we should see a decent correction, one that is overdue. I don't see anything more than the 20 percent variety. It might not even get that low. . . Business cycles seem to be intact and with it the assumption that both accelerated earnings and growth coincide. The tax cuts are a given despite it's rather ill advised long term outcome. Waiting for GODOT! Correction here? Maybe. Seasonality on your side.
S&P 500 May 03, 2017 2:20PM ET
Heard the same for 8 years now. Companies know how to make money and they are good at it in all economic conditions. Ludicrous to declare the end is here when we are going to see double digit profits. The street DID get it right all these years. low inflation, low growth environment certainly didn't ********the economy or the market. Stretched valuations for sure but forward looking numbers are still in line with this bull run.. . Universe is not built on generalities. You can say with certainty that the SUN will explode one day. Not many are concerned. Timing is everything. Understand why there is a disconnect between economic growth and corporate profits. In fact the worse scenario is an accelerated economy where wage pressure starts creeping in to everything. so far not happening.
S&P 500 May 01, 2017 12:13PM ET
With economic activity, jobs growth, business spending, rate cut looming? Not likely. A correction is due soon but it will only result in another buying opportunity. you don't fight the market here. Earnings, earnings, earnings. The big jump in earnings is baked in and so far the results are better than expected. Political missteps will most likely be the cause of next drop.
S&P 500 Apr 27, 2017 3:44PM ET
Clearly in a strong long term uptrend still. Short or intermediate term could be seeing a decent drop soon.. The tax cuts and infrastructure is what everyone wants and a political win for all. When and how it gets structured is anyone's guess. I find it ludicrous to complain we need a cut when we are in the best shape of the last 8 years. Debt saturation is a non-issue till something causes credit to tighten. The rate hikes need to be over 200 basis points for there to be any constraint.
Dollar Index Futures Apr 25, 2017 10:44PM ET
Inflation doesn't ***the dollar, only economic weakness as a result. I see the exact opposite. Still very tame inflation but surging economic forward looking data. Too much of a good thing? Yes I believe it is. equities should fall (IF) the powers that be can't hold down the dollar.
Dollar Index Futures Apr 25, 2017 10:41PM ET
US dollar about to take off. just normal consolidation. given the economic picture it is hard to imagine it drops from here. Not only should it go up but it should breakout in a big way. this sucker will not stop till 113 at a minimum.
S&P 500 Apr 21, 2017 2:37PM ET
Not breaking above downtrend yet. if it can't get beyond minimum move of 2363 than I would expect the down move to continue. Market action not indicative of any sort of momentum higher.. Not telegraphing any decisive drop but the struggle suggests downside is more likely.
S&P 500 Apr 20, 2017 2:40PM ET
Still in a holding pattern. No breakout or breakdown. The decisive move should be soon. Earnings and strong economic numbers are the catalyst today. Without political solutions the market can't keep discounting the future. Trump is already a lame duck president. All about valuations and tolerance for sustained high values in near future. If earnings do as expected that alone should keep the market from breaking down. . . The baked in future double digit gains however will never be met without Congress giving a boost in spending or tax cuts. I don't see that happening for many months going forward. the stall should have a BIG affect on market. When? My best guess is within the next 3 to 4 weeks.
S&P 500 Mar 30, 2017 6:58PM ET
Not so fast! It is about to get hit with a 20 percent correction. The TRUMP era is gone! The 3rd graders attempt at cover up went as well as a 3rd grader can. Nunes will be gone along with Trump for being as stupid. My suspicions were corroborated today. FLYNN got immunity for testimony. If he has the goods it directly links Trump and Russia in collusion. that means folks he is a goner. that means no more Repuks agenda for a while which translates into a correction.. . I hope the nut case Flynn has real verifiable goods on Trump. if so the house of cards gets blown away.
S&P 500 Mar 27, 2017 10:32AM ET
Odds of a 20 percent correction jumped big time. Health care debacle has HUGE ramifications for tax cut. Seems they relied on the huge savings from TRUMPCARE to pay for cuts for the very wealthy. make no mistake, everything the Repuks pass is exclusively for that elite group. The health care would have saving multi-millions just to that small elite group. Huge deficit spending planned, a pretend conservative Republican base, infrastructure, the wall, military. Golly gee how in the world can they do any of this and not break out laughing when it comes to fiscal responsibility?. . Lame Duck Presidency right here and now. Amazing that in order for any program to move forward he must make nice to Dems. Looks like the Russia connection is heating up. The Repuks have to wait for Pence to take charge. Pence is their man!
S&P 500 Mar 23, 2017 3:39PM ET
Never pass the Senate. This bill is a joke. A total repeal would mean MORE people would have insurance than if they passed this *** Imagine allowing people to opt out totally, choose the minimum coverage, and still guarantee that older or unhealthy individuals would pay thru the teeth to be covered. Stop pretending a replacement is needed. Trump already passed on his promise of same coverage as today but cheaper. not happening and if this dog does get passed by both houses all the RED states that voted REPUKS and TRUMP will kick all them out ASAP.
S&P 500 Mar 20, 2017 3:04PM ET
Same forecast from 5 years ago. macro view unchanged. In a transition period where corporate costs will cause earnings pressure. Economically speaking we will see acceleration in next 6 months but earnings are lagging and expectations way too high. Consumers will do well in next 2 to 3 years. Expecting, but not necessarily going to happen, a 20 percent correction this year. A shoe in for a BIG move after, assuming we get that correction. 2019/2020 end of MEGA BULL. Current action: Need to see a break above 2405 in next week or so. if not we could be seeing the start of 6 month correction.
S&P 500 Mar 16, 2017 12:17PM ET
Seriously? We always go thru this and it's posturing. We always run past deadline. The debt will be raised. We have great housing data, jobs data, consumer optimism, spending holding up, and low costs. In fact the JOLTS report surged to a 2 year high suggesting we can't currently fill these positions. . . You can stay biased with blinders on or use real analytical processes to determine the state of our economy. Debt is not something that can be used to determine a crash. we need constraint on that debt. Not there. But don't worry because before TRUMP leaves office he would have created the largest disparity between the haves and have nots EVER! The reverse robin hood of our time. Give to the rich and ******the poor while the middle struggles to make ends meet. How his base didn't see this is amazing. BUT the economy should experience a 20 percent correction starting soon followed by the last hurrah.
S&P 500 Mar 15, 2017 1:14PM ET
There goes another crash theory that a rate hike combined with debt ceiling day will tank market. i do believe the opposite is happening. we need to see SPX over last high of 1405. if it happens we have another 6 to 8 percent upside before any correction.
S&P 500 Mar 14, 2017 3:23PM ET
He can control the market as well as anyone can, NOT! Market doesn't even care what happens to him as long as policy is in place. That will happen no matter who runs country.
S&P 500 Mar 14, 2017 12:46PM ET
No issue whether he stays or not. Policy is the important determinant. Pence will give the Republicans ever more than they are getting with Trump. Tax cuts and infrastructure, not to mention the wall and defense. Spend baby spend and at the same time give tax cuts. if that isn't al long term splurge I don't know what is.
S&P 500 Mar 13, 2017 12:32PM ET
Not based on rate hike nor the debt ceiling. both are know factors and outcomes. Both will be raised. You can't have a bloated health care NEW program, billions on infrastructure and THE WALL, and a tax cut for the wealthy of this magnitude without expecting to surge the debt to new unheard of heights. How the REPUKS can claim fiscal responsibility and get away with it simply amazes me. they did so with BUSH and will do so on steroids with Trump.. . We are in a long upside wave with a real 20 percent correction due soon. I believe we may still have enough juice left for yet higher highs first.
S&P 500 Mar 12, 2017 2:28PM ET
Emotional plea is counter productive for investing. Cold rational decisions. Momentum indicators point to a much higher move. I also see major divergences like new highs and lows but we are talking about timing. Momentum for me is a good starting place. Unless we see a special event occur I would not rule out such a move. Seasonality also has a good track record. I only see a normal correction of some 20 percent lasting 6 months or so. Events change and so too does forecasts but for now it looks more likely we see a decent recharge needed for the next big phase up.
S&P 500 Mar 07, 2017 3:46PM ET
Looks to be normal retrace here. This suggests weeks more upside. My target is over 100 SPX points higher.
S&P 500 Mar 02, 2017 11:48AM ET
Not able to respond. if this gets thru use search engine with word SESSIONS Attorney General.. next resignation soon.