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gary leibowitz

Joined: 09/01/17

Comments by gary leibowitz
S&P 500 Jul 03, 2017 12:11PM ET
Absolutely text book last wave surge should occur (IF) we do get the correction starting this month. In fact if the correction does occur this year the setup for last wave surge is classic and predictable. Please look at discretionary spending and the wage to spending component on a monthly basis. The fact that we live in a zero inflation environment means we magnify the affect of disposable income. These last 8 years was no manipulation in the pure sense. Historically we are following a path already proven. if you want in include political actions and FED stimulus to the manipulation camp it has been going on for over 50 years. Absolutely text book last wave surge should occur (IF) we do get the correction starting this month. In fact if the correction does occur this year the setup for last wave surge is classic and predictable. Please look at discretionary spending and the wage to spending component on a monthly basis. The fact that we live in a zero inflation environment means we magnify the affect of disposable income. These last 8 years was no manipulation in the pure sense. Historically we are following a path already proven. if you want in include political actions and FED stimulus to the manipulation camp it has been going on for over 50 years.
S&P 500 Jun 30, 2017 2:20PM ET
Still waiting for the short position to develop. There is still a possibility of marginally new highs but it should develop this month. Would be very surprised if the top is not in within next 2 weeks.r. r. r. r. 20 percent drop expected after that.
S&P 500 Jun 29, 2017 1:31PM ET
Todays move is pretty darn convincing that the correction is upon us. I expected a continued rise so I am willing to switch position on a dime. Any rally from these levels should be shorted. Looks like imploding of TRUMP with his explosive erratic tweets that have topped all his others. His frustration is finally showing on Wall Street. No health care bill and doubtful they get anything passed soon.r. r. r. r. Summer thru November will be shorted on any decent rebounds.
S&P 500 Jun 28, 2017 6:50PM ET
We should see new highs before the deeper correction. The dollar 's slow slide has helped pull stocks higher.r. r. I believe both will reverse soon, but not before we have one more new high scenario in stocks. Timing is pretty good here since a summer peak and drop is consistent with prior patterns. July seem logical to assume such a reversal takes place. Waiting for that new high. One to two weeks should do it. Waited many months on sideline for a decent betting opportunity. Normal corrections of some 20 percent should last 5 months. r. r. July peak to November lows? We shall soon see.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 26, 2017 12:14PM ET
Looking at it in complete opposite fashion. Gold already broke support. Dollar's decline is well contained in a long and strong uptrend. Always assume long term support until it fails. no where near failure. People use any technical or fundamental analysis to FIT their assumptions instead of PRE-DEFINING their parameters. When you already have a fixed marker you can't hide from it's conclusions. Never ever "look" for reasons to be betting. Gold failed uptrend and Dollar consolidation after huge run is normal, so far.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 23, 2017 11:34AM ET
With extremely tight labor market, housing near its upper range, inflation still below normal, it begs the question why the dollar hasn't taken off. the short answer is relative to its peers. The world economies will not out do ours in the next few years. in fact we should see a slowdown much worse overseas than here. the technical move so far has not broken the long up trend. in fact the stubborn stall here is indicative of yet another big surge due. Odds have upside breakout soon. 3 to 1 odds.
S&P 500 Jun 23, 2017 11:28AM ET
You have been at a total loss for a long while now. I suggest you try and allow the technical and fundamentals take over. historically a very low inflation period required small incentives to boost profits. that means a sub par GDP. Proof is in the past. Explain away the last 8 years but corporate profits have delivered, even at a time when people were hurting badly. The excuse for BEARS were constant, refusal to accept historic norms. All YOU have to do is look back all these years, read your own statements and see where YOU went wrong. Once you admit the mistake you can adjust your formula. To pretend the trillion dollar market is capricious is only hurting yourself. With an extremely TIGHT labor market, housing near its upper range, and wages equaling or beating inflation your argument for a dire end stretches reality.
S&P 500 Jun 23, 2017 11:16AM ET
Sticking to failed bias is disastrous for your pocketbook. Emotional assumptions have no place in gambling. The reasons for this mega bull market has already answered any questions as to why. if you can't see the past you will not see the future. We are over extended here based on market expectations. The political atmosphere is such that expected spending and cuts will be delayed. How long or how deep the change is unanswerable. What we do know is that either party will revamp the economy (IF) they see it falling back into a recession. This is why I still expect a sizeable correction this year followed by a 12 to 18 month surge. Historically we have not seen the type of spurt and frenzy nearing the top, which suggests we are not there yet. it also suggests any correction will be followed by the strongest move yet.. . Timing the next drop is difficult but considering the extended move this year it seems logical to assume it should start very soon.
S&P 500 Jun 19, 2017 2:15PM ET
Manipulated for 8 years? now that's an achievement. Just the normal bull cycle after the devastated drop. Why people expect bad things and when it happens it's never bad enough.. . After the next correction watch the last great move. In other words you haven't seen nothing yet.. . Getting ahead of myself but we should have a decent correction this year of 15 to 20 percent. if we do load up on the bull train.
S&P 500 Jun 15, 2017 2:01PM ET
We should be basing near a bottom of this wave either today or tomorrow. it should hold wave structure an see yet another move higher. We should see 5th wave up from 4/13 low right after this current drop is over. Pattern suggests another month to go before complete. Dollar should also strengthen from here. Economic indicators are such that it will not cause problems for stocks. In fact the opposite might be true. Businesses are happy and so are consumers based on data. Earnings will continue to be stretched against expectations. that will be only cause for next decent 15 to 20 percent correction. not there yet.
S&P 500 Jun 09, 2017 10:51AM ET
Implied risk? The big moves like today has got to hurt. no such thing as a free lunch. When do you buy the option back?
Dollar Index Futures Jun 07, 2017 1:45PM ET
Short term is anyone's guess. Longer term is pretty defined. based on charts and economic data we are in a strong trend. Doubt it but when the market action supports the move stand aside or get on board. we have been on a long uptrend and this last correction should not breach that uptrend. There is nothing to indicate otherwise. Play what is given, not what you hope or wish for. gift given right here for this drawn out drop. 113 is in the cards before we see major resistance.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 04, 2017 12:51PM ET
We are in a long term US DOLLAR bull market. We should hit 113 before this is done. Anyone suggesting our economy is weakening should look at the unemployment rate, JOLTS report, consumer confidence, small business confidence, spending habits etc... In fact there is a huge shortage of qualified workers. JOBS report will continue to under perform because of this. It will also force wages to rise higher than otherwise intended. Too much of a good thing is where we are. Anyone betting against the US economy in next few years is betting for some external event to derail this trend. Screaming BUY long term. If we hit 94 that would be a screaming buy short term. Have to connect the dots and realize the US economy is tied into the dollars health.
S&P 500 Jun 04, 2017 12:44PM ET
Ridiculous statement not backed by facts. Rate hikes and reductions have the exact same long term affect, to try and reduce excesses. Rate hikes at these levels is mandatory and does not hurt economy. Leaving it below normal will hurt economy. Capitalism is not a simple easy formula and needs governments to control free markets excesses.
S&P 500 Jun 04, 2017 12:38PM ET
Rate hikes help banks and allow them to free up cash by lending at a decent rate. it also shifts riskier bets back towards bonds. Shifts the riskier bets back to bonds and makes it more competitive against stocks. Brings rates close to normal range where the FED can once again use rate reduction as a tool to fight economic distress.
S&P 500 Jun 02, 2017 12:49PM ET
Really? 16 year low unemployment and you say what? It's called shortage of qualified workers. not exactly a slowing economy is it? I love how people can ignore such very long trending outcomes. in fact the expectation for a slowing employment was over a year ago. the JOLTS repots keep showing that there is a HUGE number of positions that can't be filled. unqualified. I guess the market once again got it wrong? Maybe you did.
S&P 500 May 30, 2017 6:18PM ET
OVER? Please look over your calls and grade the outcome. Stubborn traits is not a good one in investing. Flexible and willing to reverse course leaving behind ego. money is made by ignoring emotional spikes and willingness to admit assumptions were incorrect. move on! Classic wave structure that suggests a long way before a major reversal is due. Corrections yes, trend change no.
S&P 500 May 30, 2017 6:15PM ET
Not according to real economic data. Income and outlays went up 4/10ths as expected. Home prices are still rising. Consumer confidence and investor confidence levels are way up there.. There is nothing to suggest a slow down. Nada. You either haven't followed the data points or believe something out of the ordinary is going to cause a sudden drop. Rates will continue to rise to a point where we "normalize" it. Not there yet and the FED is determined to get there. earnings, spending, low inflation, jobs, wages, etc... See nothing on the horizon to change this dynamics. Even the dollar has stalled here.
S&P 500 May 26, 2017 11:58AM ET
Most likely another 5 percent move higher before any decent drawback. This move is classic trend bound.. When this corrects is anyone's guess and mine has already come and gone. Make no mistake, this is a bull run and the next drop should only be a correction. By definition a minimum 10 percent drop from it's highs is classified as a correction. Still feel strongly it happens this year.
S&P 500 May 19, 2017 3:19PM ET
DEBT BOMB? You aint seen nothin yet! Wait till the tax cuts for the very wealthy take affect.. Hard to have a debt bomb when this current debt is showing small business optimism not seen in decades. Sorry but debt saturation implies spending is done.. . You are setting an arbitrary barrier. No one knows where that ceiling is.
S&P 500 May 19, 2017 1:43PM ET
BTW, the dollars stall here is great for equities. The dollar can be the ********of bull moves. I suspect the dollar like equities is still in a long bull run.
S&P 500 May 19, 2017 1:42PM ET
How many years have you been predicting a big bad bear market. Missed the huge run. Can't stick with a proposition when playing the market. let the market tell you how it feels. so far it's doing a great job. No such thing as missing the market reversal. if it was to reverse and have a deep drop the technical and perhaps fundamentals will telegraph this. Best to be late to the party then to come on the wrong day.
Dollar Index Futures May 19, 2017 12:39PM ET
Going to get caught on the wrong side soon. the long term trend is clearly up. the slow grind down is indicative of consolidation. Trump's ineptitude is stalling the dollars advance. The macro move however will not be stopped. Watch a fast and sustained recovery soon. 113 is my target.
Dollar Index Futures May 18, 2017 4:32PM ET
Dollar and equities will go higher. Chart still intact on upside. Trump, Pence take your pick.. Repuks in charge and full steam ahead. Debt levels will double from here.
Dollar Index Futures May 18, 2017 4:29PM ET
Fake news, fake dollar, fake stock market. Real trump. Dollar is about to take off...... Logical to assume the repuks economy is geared for a jolly good ride. Pence or Trump no matter. The readjustment to the top earners is about to begin in earnest. Corporate freedom to do what they want without restricting's is here. Debt levels will go up so high and so fast that the ones shouting the end is here at these levels will get nose bleeds before it is done.. . Bet against this bull run and you bet for a weaker dollar. Standing in front of a freight train expecting it to stop before you see it slowing down even is a great way to get yourself killed.. . Correction sometime in 2017 but it will not stop this bull move. Call me in 2020.