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gary leibowitz

Joined: 09/01/17


Comments by gary leibowitz
S&P 500 Jul 24, 2017 1:31PM ET
That means forever. President will either pardon himself or Pence will do it. if you think he will go to jail your vision on everything is distorted beyond recognition.
S&P 500 Jul 21, 2017 4:37PM ET
If pattern hold true we have TWO more weeks before next decent drop.
S&P 500 Jul 21, 2017 1:03PM ET
You\'re joking right? I am a bear and have been all my life. more specifically I am a pessimist that finally understood to distance myself from emotional bias and develop hard principles. I called the 2009 bottom based on fundamental disparities. The dismal GDP reports showed a startling conclusion. the consumer has drew down debt, increased discretionary spending and increased savings. My record is intact and posted for all to see. Investorshub website under member name GDL. I have called this move from 8 years back a mega bull cycle that will be one for the record books. based on overextended drop and Fed stimulus in an extremely low inflation period. In fact disinflation constantly fighting deflations pull. End game will be dramatic and following winter perhaps the worse in our history. For mow enjoy the show. get back to you in 2020, with one more interim 20 percent drop. perhaps starting soon. You're joking right? I am a bear and have been all my life. more specifically I am a pessimist that finally understood to distance myself from emotional bias and develop hard principles. I called the 2009 bottom based on fundamental disparities. The dismal GDP reports showed a startling conclusion. the consumer has drew down debt, increased discretionary spending and increased savings. My record is intact and posted for all to see. Investorshub website under member name GDL. I have called this move from 8 years back a mega bull cycle that will be one for the record books. based on overextended drop and Fed stimulus in an extremely low inflation period. In fact disinflation constantly fighting deflations pull. End game will be dramatic and following winter perhaps the worse in our history. For mow enjoy the show. get back to you in 2020, with one more interim 20 percent drop. perhaps starting soon.
S&P 500 Jul 21, 2017 11:33AM ET
NOPE. Markets don't give a *** Treason and rigging elections in USA seem common place as we revert to third world status. World numb, apathetic over Oligarchy or Democracy. As long as they can decipher how profits will flow.
S&P 500 Jul 20, 2017 2:45PM ET
Please look a the 10 year chart of SP500 and tell me you can't draw a line between the lower and upper range and STAY within current move? Strange comment. In fact it is PICTURE PERFECT TIGHT. People see what they want to see. Had your views been the same last year or 5 years ago you would have lost money. Well maybe not lost if you stayed away which is highly unlikely. Left in the dust is more like it. the slow grind down with the dollar is helping this market. there will be another real correction of some 20 percent but timing IS everything.
S&P 500 Jul 19, 2017 1:59PM ET
40 SPX points to go. Pattern INTACT. Same voices with static opinions can't win at this. Classic bull run with mountains of sceptics. You can't look back and declare victory on stubborn stance. Logical conclusion would be admitting mistake but emotional strength outweighs common sense and logic. Look at Trumps base and tell me that makes sense? this proves my point. We are emotions over logic and nothing will change till we grow out of it, if we can survive long enough.
S&P 500 Jul 14, 2017 3:57PM ET
I have been where you are. I have gone thru decades of learning process. I have a suspicious nature and negative bias but have learnt to ignore them in favor of patterns and determining what makes the market tick. Generalities on bigger picture never helps in determining the current situation. All that does is help you cope with continued mistakes. I never make excuses anymore. the market is the arbitrator. you can\'t deny or dismiss it\'s moves. Understand current dynamics and plug in formula to determine when they change enough to affect markets natural tendency to stay with trend. I have been where you are. I have gone thru decades of learning process. I have a suspicious nature and negative bias but have learnt to ignore them in favor of patterns and determining what makes the market tick. Generalities on bigger picture never helps in determining the current situation. All that does is help you cope with continued mistakes. I never make excuses anymore. the market is the arbitrator. you can't deny or dismiss it's moves. Understand current dynamics and plug in formula to determine when they change enough to affect markets natural tendency to stay with trend.
S&P 500 Jul 14, 2017 3:52PM ET
Dollar has not broke uptrend. In fact I would be very surprised if it does. Counting on a HUGE reversal in both dollar and equities soon.
S&P 500 Jul 14, 2017 3:50PM ET
Right about equities, wrong about a bottom for dollar. Looks like dollars weakness helping the last thrust for equities. Still suspect dollar reverses before equities. In timeline scale I see another 3 weeks till we top out in equities. Rolling over could take months later or quickly. Saw the "tell" in equities. This is the last wave before big correction. NOT the end of whole bull run however. SB 5 month window for drop once it starts.
Dollar Index Futures Jul 14, 2017 3:46PM ET
Blow me down. Dollars drop is helping next and last round of up moves for equities. Thought dollar found bottom. It will turn around soon and when it does it will be big move along with big reversal in equities. I expect dollar to reverse before it affects equities. make no mistake, we are in a sweet spot economically speaking. Equities stretched valuation will catch up to it. we are about to see major reversals in BOTH. how soon? Topping should be 3 weeks away. Rollover after. Could be slow or fast, anyone's guess.
Dollar Index Futures Jul 13, 2017 12:42PM ET
Equites seem to confirm a breakout that should last one more month and then might roll over for the correction everyone has been waiting for. Dollar seems to have found a bottom but no definite pattern yet. I suspect there will be pressure on equities in one month coming from the dollar. it should have a big move in next few weeks. Up bet is at 5 to 1. Seems illogical it break down since economic conditions are too good.
S&P 500 Jul 13, 2017 12:37PM ET
No never. Has no discernable pattern other than major tops and bottoms. More to do with geopolitical and rig counts. Stick with the dollar, equities, metals. Used to play the futures till I got caught in a bad trade. Use straight options sometimes and 3X ETF for a monthly bet. Some moves are telegraphed better than others. this latest move was very hard to figure. Once I saw the completed 3rd wave down I knew where to look for a breakout or failure. Currently in a wave with 2 sub divisions. Almost always you get 5 or ever 7. Timing is also pretty even so far and suggest one month move from start of wave. Not always since it can truncate but usually that happens on fast moves. this looks normal and steady so far. I only play the \"tells\" since that is where the fast action happens. I first played the drop thinking it would break decisively. Lost some money, then saw the reverse and rode it up. Still have half position for another week. No never. Has no discernable pattern other than major tops and bottoms. More to do with geopolitical and rig counts. Stick with the dollar, equities, metals. Used to play the futures till I got caught in a bad trade. Use straight options sometimes and 3X ETF for a monthly bet. Some moves are telegraphed better than others. this latest move was very hard to figure. Once I saw the completed 3rd wave down I knew where to look for a breakout or failure. Currently in a wave with 2 sub divisions. Almost always you get 5 or ever 7. Timing is also pretty even so far and suggest one month move from start of wave. Not always since it can truncate but usually that happens on fast moves. this looks normal and steady so far. I only play the "tells" since that is where the fast action happens. I first played the drop thinking it would break decisively. Lost some money, then saw the reverse and rode it up. Still have half position for another week.
S&P 500 Jul 12, 2017 8:00PM ET
Pattern suggest middle of August we hit the top of next wave. Not sure how it plays out after but most likely a setup for that correction everyone waits for. Best guess is September is the big rollover month.
S&P 500 Jul 12, 2017 2:42PM ET
Market leads and Dollar should follow. Perversely I think a breakout in Dollar will cause the next big correction.r. r. Perhaps I am wrong but am looking closely at dollars move to determine if my assumption on next cause of stock market drop is correct.
S&P 500 Jul 12, 2017 1:33PM ET
Don Jenson I suggest you give up gambling the market. You will be a consistent loser. No emotional stability. Take this advise for a very long investor and trader. FORCING your will on an inanimate object just is plain silly. Like willing an Oil Tanker to stop. r. r. r. r. ===========================================================================r. r. I have re-posted your very first post of February of 2016. All subsequent posts have one theme and it is doom and gloom. Missed out on a HUGE rally.
S&P 500 Jul 12, 2017 1:28PM ET
BREAKOUT! The "TELL". Hard pattern to discern but this move confirms next wave up. SB all time highs. It also looks like the last wave up followed by a real 15 to 20 percent correction. But of course we wait for that to develop.
S&P 500 Jul 12, 2017 1:26PM ET
S&P 500 11-02-2016 04:33 \r\nI can\\'t figure out why there are any buyers at all here. A grade 8 economics student could tell you where the economy is headed. S & P will be lucky to close at 1100 this year. This is a 10 year depression coming up.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nTHIS IS YOUR FIRST POST ON THIS BOARD. Consistent rant on crash from February of 2016. Rewrite history but the written record stands. Your BIAS is EXTREME and will always be EXTREME. BTW, How\'s that NON-BREAKOUT. Gotta luv the pattern and predictability even with a strange 3 wave drop. S&P 500 11-02-2016 04:33 r. I can't figure out why there are any buyers at all here. A grade 8 economics student could tell you where the economy is headed. S & P will be lucky to close at 1100 this year. This is a 10 year depression coming up.r. r. r. r. THIS IS YOUR FIRST POST ON THIS BOARD. Consistent rant on crash from February of 2016. Rewrite history but the written record stands. Your BIAS is EXTREME and will always be EXTREME. BTW, How's that NON-BREAKOUT. Gotta luv the pattern and predictability even with a strange 3 wave drop.
S&P 500 Jul 11, 2017 4:23PM ET
Don the man. Was there a flash crash I missed? Perhaps my charts don' include infinitesimals micro Nano-second flash crashes of thousands of points? Give me the CORRECT CHART PLEASE!
S&P 500 Jul 11, 2017 12:36PM ET
YET the market is up thousand of points as opposed to your never ending CRASH! How long ago was that crash of yours? Give me a wake up call. I see NONTING to suggest doom/gloom. We are how many points from All Time High? Job market is where? Disposable income and spending is where? earnings is what exactly? Perhaps YOU should evaluate your EXTREME BIAS in a market that has set record breaking up moves for this extended period of time. You will NEVER make money with an emotional bias that IGNORES reality. You pretend the market made a mistake these last 7 years. me, I believe what I SEE. Silly me. As for CURRENT MOVE it can go either way. Old saying that you Stick with Trend is a good and useful one. I assume this days drop is CONSTRUCTIVE and will LAUNCH a big rally. if it fails here I SWITCH my view. It's called being flexible and not allowing BIAS to CONTROL your best. See ya......
S&P 500 Jul 10, 2017 1:01PM ET
I guess you have the answer. Not a breakout of down trend yet. Still too early to declare all clear. Season where we could easily see the start of a decent correction but this slow drawdown suggests otherwise. As for earnings, just watch not only top line numbers, but reaction by the street immediately after. More important is the forward numbers. Some scratch head over a market that defies good news but most likely because the forward number is disappointing. Both equities and dollar in an area that can still go either way. I think in near future both will go in same direction. I guess you have the answer. Not a breakout of down trend yet. Still too early to declare all clear. Season where we could easily see the start of a decent correction but this slow drawdown suggests otherwise. As for earnings, just watch not only top line numbers, but reaction by the street immediately after. More important is the forward numbers. Some scratch head over a market that defies good news but most likely because the forward number is disappointing. Both equities and dollar in an area that can still go either way. I think in near future both will go in same direction.
S&P 500 Jul 07, 2017 11:16AM ET
Looks like a complicated 3 wave drop is over. We should see a breakout event in next 2 weeks to new highs. Dollar seems to be about to breakout as well which means Gold is toast. Economic data in a sweet spot. earnings should show this over next 2 weeks as well. Looks like we have the next wave to new highs starting here. How biased gamblers can ignore the fundamentals and technical is beyond me. Seems most try to force their will on the market and twist data to fit their model. r. r. r. r. Corrective weave not here yet. Best guess is in 3 months time we start a nasty drop of some 20 percent. Front betting here for a failed move is like throwing darts. best wait for the "TELL".
S&P 500 Jul 07, 2017 11:04AM ET
I am long here. Next wave up and most likely last one before decent correction. New Highs. Economic and Earnings season should both be positive for stocks. the dollar IMO is being held back and should spring up rather quickly and fast. In almost every category the data points to strength.
S&P 500 Jul 06, 2017 3:07PM ET
You can\'t manipulate spending, revenue, manufacturing and services. Sorry but we are in an extremely tight labor market. Please try and dispute these things. you see 8 years of manipulation while the earnings picture and profits from companies are as plain as the nose on your face. The low inflation environment always amplifies profit movement since a small spending gain equates to large profits. This is true today ands it was 50 years ago. Your philosophy is destructive as an investor. You see destruction for these long 8 years while the truth is anything but.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nI deal in reality, not some general sense of doom. The consumer is VERY HAPPY today and it shows in the data. you want to persuade the masses go ahead. me, I\'ll take what the economy and data gives me.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nDebt implosion was told to me a decade ago and still counting. it happens when it happens and not because an arbitrary line is drawn in the sand. You can't manipulate spending, revenue, manufacturing and services. Sorry but we are in an extremely tight labor market. Please try and dispute these things. you see 8 years of manipulation while the earnings picture and profits from companies are as plain as the nose on your face. The low inflation environment always amplifies profit movement since a small spending gain equates to large profits. This is true today ands it was 50 years ago. Your philosophy is destructive as an investor. You see destruction for these long 8 years while the truth is anything but.r. r. r. r. I deal in reality, not some general sense of doom. The consumer is VERY HAPPY today and it shows in the data. you want to persuade the masses go ahead. me, I'll take what the economy and data gives me.r. r. r. r. Debt implosion was told to me a decade ago and still counting. it happens when it happens and not because an arbitrary line is drawn in the sand.
S&P 500 Jul 06, 2017 2:05PM ET
Must be a new gambler. they always assume it's so easy because they guessed the right way at the right time. Over time I guarantee he will be down. Sucker play for 90 percent of us. Emotional bias almost always gets in the way. I am a veteran that knows from experience. I played it all, futures, ETF's, Gold, Bonds, SPX, Orange Juice, etc... My advise, find a system that works over 60 percent of the time, prevents big losses with early detection of exit strategy and allows you to remain in the trend during longer moves. Never predetermine the future action especially if it already went against you. No such thing as understanding rational play. Long term trend determination is a lot easier. Buy and hold will most likely gain more money than any other way. Buffett's of the world know this to be true.
S&P 500 Jul 06, 2017 11:59AM ET
Place your bets! Consumer data on F-I-R-E! Best combines readings of last 8 years. IF we hold here over next 2 to 3 weeks we drive up again. Very tight labor market, the tightest it has been in DECADES! Watch the dollar. I expect a HUGE spring back and forward momentum to 120's.r. r. r. r. We are due for a NORMAL correction in this mega Cycle. Now or 3 months form now?