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AIM Investor Journal

Joined: 18/06/16


Comments by AIM Investor Journal
Gold Mar 31, 2021 12:21PM ET
The USD Index, US 10 year yields and Bitcoin have all risen sharply in recent weeks. Gold is well off it's 3 month average and can quite easily do 2-3% a day for the next week before it's considered 'too steep'. Remember how much USD has been added to the global financial system in the past 12 months?
Gold Mar 31, 2021 12:18PM ET
Printing trillions of dollars to tackle the deteriorating US public finances and in the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan, it is little wonder why markets are wary of Biden's endlessly deep pockets.
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 12:16PM ET
 Yes printing trillions of dollars to tackle the deteriorating public finances and in the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan. Markets are wary of Biden's deep pockets Yes printing trillions of dollars to tackle the deteriorating public finances and in the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan. Markets are wary of Biden's deep pockets
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 12:09PM ET
The dollar pared gains made yesterday to test support of 93.1
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 12:07PM ET
Just out: "On the other side of the pond, the US dollar has taken a breather from its gains as Treasury yields are off the highs. One of the drivers for the cooling in the bond sell-off comes from details of President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan. The Commander in Chief plans to raise taxes to fund his grand $2+ trillion expenditure, which implies less debt issuance, thus higher values for bonds – lower yields which are negative for the dollar"
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 11:28AM ET
"The new plans come on top of the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan Mr. Biden signed into law this month, which was financed entirely by borrowing."
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 11:26AM ET
"The scale of the infrastructure program he is rolling out — one of the most ambitious attempts in generations to shore up the nation’s aging roads, bridges, rail lines and utilities — is so big that it will require 15 years of higher taxes on corporations to fully offset eight years of spending." - NY Times
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 7:22AM ET
 Short term the dollar is riding high on vaccine rollout success, as US economy will return to growth faster than Europe, Japan and much of the developing world. But once the fizz subsides this mass stimulus will weigh heavily on the dollar. Commodities like copper and nickel already moving towards deficit in the next 3 years will continue to rise. Still expecting USD to outperform EUR and YEN in the next quarter but the tide will turn in the second half when Europe emerges from it's lockdown. Short term the dollar is riding high on vaccine rollout success, as US economy will return to growth faster than Europe, Japan and much of the developing world. But once the fizz subsides this mass stimulus will weigh heavily on the dollar. Commodities like copper and nickel already moving towards deficit in the next 3 years will continue to rise. Still expecting USD to outperform EUR and YEN in the next quarter but the tide will turn in the second half when Europe emerges from it's lockdown.
Gold Mar 31, 2021 7:07AM ET
 That would be a buy signal. Mass stimulus + inflation + low interest rates = good for gold. That would be a buy signal. Mass stimulus + inflation + low interest rates = good for gold.
Gold Mar 31, 2021 7:05AM ET
"In a world where people are looking for real assets that hold value in an inflationary cycle, assets like gold and bitcoin become very appealing to hold." - Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at digital asset management firm CoinShares.
Gold Mar 31, 2021 7:04AM ET
As reported by Forbes last year "in response to the Fed and central banks around the world printing money while interest rates remain at historic lows, high profile investors are fleeing government bonds"
Gold Mar 31, 2021 6:56AM ET
$1692 and possibly higher. Really depends how markets interpret the viability of Biden's infrastructure plan.
Gold Mar 31, 2021 6:54AM ET
“the key event of the week is set to be the unveiling by President Biden of his infrastructure plan on Wednesday, with another bold fiscal move (some media reports suggested the stimulus plan may be as large as $4tn)"
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 5:08AM ET
Today is the first step towards a number of multi-trillion dollar infrastructure packages Biden will announce in the next year.
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 5:07AM ET
 An expensive waterslide! An expensive waterslide!
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 5:00AM ET
Great call!
Dollar Index Futures Mar 31, 2021 4:58AM ET
Have you all sold? Seems a lot quieter in here today? XD
Dollar Index Futures Mar 30, 2021 1:14PM ET
USD is flooding out of the digi-printing machines and into long term bonds and investments.
Dollar Index Futures Mar 30, 2021 10:41AM ET
 Today 93.33 is top Today 93.33 is top
Dollar Index Futures Mar 30, 2021 10:33AM ET
Quick, book em! We are done for the day
Dollar Index Futures Mar 30, 2021 10:32AM ET
Right. But please use a full stop and breath between sentences ;)
Dollar Index Futures Mar 30, 2021 8:27AM ET
 Thanks for your input. Like you I believe the USD has breathing room in the next few months to 'run rampant' which it has done already to an extent, but should in theory, turn lower once inflation adjusted performance indicators are known. As you say Europe is stuck in a rut and will be for some months. Interesting to note Biden will discuss another round of stimulus to address the structural issues within the economy, reportedly as much as trillion reported by Reuters. Debt fuelled growth driving inflation can be positive if sustainable and at the same time fuel demand for the industrial commodities as well as precious metals. All in theory ;) Thanks for your input. Like you I believe the USD has breathing room in the next few months to 'run rampant' which it has done already to an extent, but should in theory, turn lower once inflation adjusted performance indicators are known. As you say Europe is stuck in a rut and will be for some months. Interesting to note Biden will discuss another round of stimulus to address the structural issues within the economy, reportedly as much as $4 trillion reported by Reuters. Debt fuelled growth driving inflation can be positive if sustainable and at the same time fuel demand for the industrial commodities as well as precious metals. All in theory ;)
Dollar Index Futures Mar 30, 2021 8:20AM ET
 What's with your attitude? The USD is riding the first wave out of lockdown and markets are expecting strong inflation. When inflation materialises but rates are kept flat this year we should see weakness in the currency, in relation to commodities. USD will still outperform other major currencies based on economic performance in that scenario.. What's with your attitude? The USD is riding the first wave out of lockdown and markets are expecting strong inflation. When inflation materialises but rates are kept flat this year we should see weakness in the currency, in relation to commodities. USD will still outperform other major currencies based on economic performance in that scenario..
Dollar Index Futures Mar 30, 2021 8:07AM ET
The USD Index rose from around 96 to 103 around this time last year on fears of Covid before mass stimulus and rate cuts forced it lower. There has since been even more stimulus and rates are to remain low until 2023-24. Markets are expecting the US to bounce back first and experience inflation of 6% or more. But isn't inflation good for commodities? Isn't inflation generally bad for the currency? Has the world been flipped on it's head?