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AIM Investor Journal

Joined: 18/06/16


Comments by AIM Investor Journal
Gold Jun 25, 2021 11:07AM ET
Yep, spiked this afternoon
Gold Jun 25, 2021 10:22AM ET
Gold reacts positively to USD weakness. The US is on the verge of defaulting on loans if they do not raise the debt ceiling by end of July, according to Janet Yellen - check the businessinsider - janet-yellen-debt-default-congress-republicans-ceiling-2021
Dollar Index Futures Jun 25, 2021 10:19AM ET
House Republicans and President Barack Obama clash over the debt ceiling way back in 2011 sending stocks tumbling and caused the first downgrade to US credit. If the federal government defaults, Yellen said it could jumpstart a chain reaction of cash shortages starting with US bond holders, which include individuals, businesses, and foreign governments.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 25, 2021 10:16AM ET
On Wednesday Secretary Yellen asked Congress to extend a July deadline to pay back some of the federal debt. Without an extension, she warned of a "catastrophic" default that could hurt economic recovery. Some in the GOP have signaled they want spending cuts in exchange for increasing the debt ceiling.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 25, 2021 10:15AM ET
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns of 'absolutely catastrophic' hit to economic recovery this summer if US can't pay its bills on time
Gold Jun 25, 2021 10:12AM ET
 Add to the panic, US default possible end of July - according Janet Yellen's most recent comments (last 24 hours news) Add to the panic, US default possible end of July - according Janet Yellen's most recent comments (last 24 hours news)
Gold Jun 25, 2021 10:04AM ET
 It will be interesting to watch what happens now the 220624385.2 billion infrastructure plan has been agreed in principle. Still won't pass yet as this plan is set to be part of a billion spending package being drafted by Sen Bernie Sander to be spent on climate change, education, paid leave and childcare benefits, likely to be paid for in part by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations. It will be passed by a budget reconciliation process ie no Republican votes in the Senate required as confirmed by Pelosi: "There ain't going to be a bipartisan bill without a reconciliation bill," Mrs Pelosi said. Mr Biden echoed that sentiment in later remarks from the East Room of the White House: "If this is the only thing that comes to me, I'm not signing it. It's in tandem." Only a matter of time before we see it passed. It will be interesting to watch what happens now the $1.2 billion infrastructure plan has been agreed in principle. Still won't pass yet as this plan is set to be part of a $7 billion spending package being drafted by Sen Bernie Sander to be spent on climate change, education, paid leave and childcare benefits, likely to be paid for in part by tax increases on the wealthy and corporations. It will be passed by a budget reconciliation process ie no Republican votes in the Senate required as confirmed by Pelosi: "There ain't going to be a bipartisan bill without a reconciliation bill," Mrs Pelosi said. Mr Biden echoed that sentiment in later remarks from the East Room of the White House: "If this is the only thing that comes to me, I'm not signing it. It's in tandem." Only a matter of time before we see it passed.
Gold Jun 25, 2021 9:52AM ET
The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, released today suggests inflation is not as strong as forecast. The reading of 0.5% falls below the 0.6% forecast and is worse than the previous month's reading of 0.7%.
Gold Jun 25, 2021 9:49AM ET
"employment [data] remains down significantly," said Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
Gold Jun 25, 2021 9:44AM ET
No tapering anytime soon and 0.6% rise in rates 2 years away. Meanwhile $120 billion bond purchases every month. Gold is the only safe hedge against this kind of value destruction
Gold Jun 25, 2021 9:38AM ET
 A slowdown at the same time as inflation (shortage of goods, services etc) could be a terrible combination. I don't see inflation taking off though unless the USD collapses and the USD is almost certainly not going to collapse overnight. I can definitely see a slowdown though with all the excess money drying up and people not wanting to spend all their investment gains / savings. A slowdown at the same time as inflation (shortage of goods, services etc) could be a terrible combination. I don't see inflation taking off though unless the USD collapses and the USD is almost certainly not going to collapse overnight. I can definitely see a slowdown though with all the excess money drying up and people not wanting to spend all their investment gains / savings.
Gold Jun 25, 2021 9:30AM ET
Inflation figures were not revised up like they were in past few months. Questions concerning growth of US economy, strength of USD etc. All good for commodities
Gold Jun 25, 2021 9:00AM ET
Just announced on Reuters – U.S. consumer spending was unchanged in May following the upward revision last month, possible cooling effect. The Commerce Department said on Friday that the unchanged reading in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, followed an upwardly revised 0.9% jump in April. Consumer spending was previously reported to have increased 0.5% in April. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Gold Jun 25, 2021 8:38AM ET
South Africa Africrypt Bitcoin Scam - Cajee Brothers Missing Along With $3.6 Billion - Bloomberg - follows the collapse of another South African Bitcoin trader, Mirror Trading International in 2020 after $1.2 billion in Bitcoin (23k coins) went 'missing' - digital currencies offer no protection from fraudsters currently.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 18, 2021 5:57PM ET
Markets were taken unawares by the reaction to the future rate expectations but the much talked about jump from 0.25% to 0.6% in 2023 is hardly a game changer given we are at least 18 months away. Talk of tapering the $120 billion a month bond buying program has finally had a chilling effect on runaway markets and the sell down in precious metals may in part be due to covering those recent losses. When the tapering finally begins in earnest, bonds should sell off sending yields higher as what happened last time in 2013. More details likely to come before Jackson Hole (August) or failing that the FOMC meeting in September.
Gold Suffers Worst Week in 15 Months After Fed Drama Jun 18, 2021 5:56PM ET
Markets were taken unawares by the reaction to the future rate expectations but the much talked about jump from 0.25% to 0.6% in 2023 is hardly a game changer given we are at least 18 months away. Talk of tapering the $120 billion a month bond buying program has finally had a chilling effect on runaway markets and the sell down in precious metals may in part be due to covering those recent losses. When the tapering finally begins in earnest, bonds should sell off sending yields higher as what happened last time in 2013. More details likely to come before Jackson Hole (August) or failing that the FOMC meeting in September.
Gold Tumbles 5% as Dollar Surge Wrecks Commodities Jun 18, 2021 6:26AM ET
 The dollar had an average inflation rate of 2.30% per year between 1991 and today, meaning prices are 1.98 times higher than average prices since 1991, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index. A dollar today only buys 50.60% of what it could buy back then. The gold price has risen more than 400% over the same period. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 2.30% per year between 1991 and today, meaning prices are 1.98 times higher than average prices since 1991, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index. A dollar today only buys 50.60% of what it could buy back then. The gold price has risen more than 400% over the same period.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 17, 2021 6:54PM ET
Strong Dollar based on what? Inflationary effects are according to the Fed 'temporary' ergo the economic growth now in the US is temporary. The economic growth is entirely due to end of lockdown / economy reopening, more cash flowing around the system whilst rates are at record lows and nobody is expecting a rate rise until 2023
Dollar Index Futures Jun 17, 2021 6:47PM ET
The Dollar can outperform the Euro but it's still a race to the bottom that has ramped up since Covid and 'The Great Stimulus'
Palladium Jun 17, 2021 12:32PM ET
 yes no need for supply based pricing, we will just print more commodities.. yes no need for supply based pricing, we will just print more commodities..
Gold Jun 17, 2021 7:52AM ET
 so your analysis is telling you the price of gold should have increased 40 fold over 20 years and despite it 'only' rising 9 fold you're trying to tell us there's no reason to buy gold.. hah so your analysis is telling you the price of gold should have increased 40 fold over 20 years and despite it 'only' rising 9 fold you're trying to tell us there's no reason to buy gold.. hah
Gold Jun 17, 2021 7:44AM ET
It's so useless the price of gold has increased 9 fold since 2000
Gold Jun 17, 2021 7:27AM ET
Nobody is panic dumping physical gold. Remember that all currencies lose 99.9% of purchasing power relative to gold over time. So if time is on your side, buy the metal. Trading the 'gold price' is for short term, high risk folk who almost certainly know the market is rigged but play along anyway.
Dollar Index Futures Jun 17, 2021 7:01AM ET
Spectacular rally off the back of a future decision to bring forward rates 30 months from now to 24 months from now..
FOMC maintains stimulus, brings rate hike forecast forward to 2023 Jun 16, 2021 3:07PM ET
The Fed is making noises about raising rates in two years time. Meanwhile in the real world today, we have yet to see the real damage caused to people's financial situation, their businesses and their changed borrowing / spending habits. Multiply this the world over and assuming Covid is pretty much gone by 2023, this hardly instils confidence. I suspect inflation will fizzle out next year at some point with tax increases to come to pay for all this. No point worrying about a quarter percent rate rise two years from now.