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Do Deikins

Joined: 14/09/15

Comments by Do Deikins
OPEC Playing Cat-And-Mouse Game With Oil Markets Mar 29, 2017 3:03PM ET
Iraq says it is none of your business unless it is exported; the Saudis call it "storage". Pretty much the same thing. Russians are waving their arms and talking loud, hoping no one will really look at their cards. Will they even get one month on the money? Hold 'em close and don't draw to an inside straight.
3 Signals To Watch When OPEC's Oil Production Committee Meets Mar 22, 2017 1:50PM ET
The article about Russia quoted in this analysis seems to state that it has only cut 161,000 barrels as of 19 March, not an additional 161,000 barrels. A question, since the cuts require an 'average' cut and a country has only cut 50% after 3 months, does this 'mean' they would need to cut by 150% the last 3 months to meet quota? Or are they looking at the median as an average rather than the mean? If they are looking at the mean, it will be highly unlikely for the largest slackers to be able to make it up.
Will A Fed Rate Hike Boost The Price Of Oil? Mar 16, 2017 9:25AM ET
Or was the announcement of the oil production increase (albeit placed in "storage") by the Saudi Oil Ministry combined with their statements at CERAweek, a shot over the bow to the shale producers that they also can increase production rapidly if they desire.
Crude holds gains in Asia as market mulls OPEC, U.S. data Mar 15, 2017 11:59PM ET
The pact to trim oil production "represnts (sic) oil for sale, not supplies placed in storage or used domestically. Incredible. People believe this? So the buildup or drop in US supplies at Cushing or used domestically in the states is not significant? Am I missing something?
Will A Fed Rate Hike Boost The Price Of Oil? Mar 15, 2017 11:57PM ET
Perhaps a site should start that is called the 'Oil Joke of the Week'. A sound bit of misdirection by the Saudi Oil Ministry, if I have ever heard one, saying that you can't count the oil they are putting into storage as production. Does that mean that the oil buildup in Cushing is of no interest to oil prices. Or what about the draw-down of the Iranian tanker oil reserves by close to 50% in January. Conversely they said that couldn't be counted as production since it was coming from storage. Or am I missing something?
Oil: Saudia Arabia Vs. U.S. Shale Mar 14, 2017 10:24PM ET
The Saudi's economy depends on a decent price for oil. As the price of oil goes down, it causes a world of hurt for the Saudi's, their OPEC compatriots, and for Russia as their societal obligations depend on their major source of income. The cost of a barrel is much more than just the price to pump it and it appears the amount needed to pump by OPEC, etc. is much more inelastic than once believed. Oil is just a part of the US economy and functions (in some ways) in reverse of the OPEC situation. (i.e. as the price of oil goes down the US economy in general benefits).
What Oil Traders Can Learn From Sunday's #Oscarfail Mar 01, 2017 3:00PM ET
What? We can't depend on govt figures? Who would have thought it? Thank you for supplying us with good alternatives for comparison (e.g. TankerTrackers). Though, I thought the take-away would be that most of us need to come out of the moonlight (loca luz de la luna) and stop living in LaLa land. (Or is that what you *did* say, albeit in a very nice manner?)
Why Aren’t Oil Prices $50 Ahead? Feb 19, 2017 6:49PM ET
BTW, I don't see a difference between COT: NYMEX Crude Oil Light Sweet and COT: NYMEX Crude Oil Light Sweet II?
Why Aren’t Oil Prices $50 Ahead? Feb 19, 2017 6:45PM ET
Excellent analysis. We seem to have a metastable, high energy state waiting for a sufficient disturbance to a new lower-energy state (excuse the pun). The disturbance may come gradually, but the state change will be rapid.
Oil’s Deceptive Balance: Have Prices Really Stabilized? Feb 17, 2017 10:03PM ET
Thank you, Dr. Wald, for your thoughtful analysis of the major factors behind the metastable oil prices. Energy products (i.e. oil and OE) historically have behaved elastically (i.e. have high energy metastable states). I don't expect that has changed. What makes it most interesting is that it is not only a technical problem, able to be solved with statistical analysis, but very much a human problem, with the cultural and personal enmeshed. What we do know is that when it changes, it will change rapidly.
Inside Look: The Newest, Effective, Free Tool For Oil Traders Feb 01, 2017 8:54PM ET
Thank you, thank you, thank you! And I agree with everything Mr. Chaabini said.
Saudi Arabia: Making U.S. Oil Great Again Feb 01, 2017 8:51PM ET
Howdy and welcome to the new swing producer, American shale (Permian now, other NA formations coming, and Argentina eventually). The Saudis have been great gamblers for centuries; they know when to bluff, know when to hold, and know when to fold.
Oil Price Moves Down: Are Shale Producers Responsible? Jan 18, 2017 8:02PM ET
«Thus, the question is if increasing shale production is really pushing oil prices down right now?» Nope, it is skepticism. . «How do you think the production balance will shift over the next six months and how will it impact prices?» As the current swing producer, shale will continue to pump more oil. Though my prognostications are best used for boot insulation or other more immediate needs, my bet is that petrol prices will plummet precipitously, pause, then progress past the current price point. . I find the statement of Mr Hamm to be insightful. Sounds like CLR doesn't have the horses to leave the gate and is looking for a handicap..
Non-OPEC Oil Producers Could Hold Key To Successful 2017 Cuts Jan 12, 2017 1:21PM ET
Compliance, compliance, compliance!. That and the 'new' swing producer shale oil in the states (and perhaps Argentina) are key. Canada is transport constrained (until Kinder's Trans Mountain expansion and maybe Keystone), and Norway is constrained by the cost and time-line of deep ocean well development. Brazil, I don't know... Al-Marzouq, Kuwait, says compliance should be judged by the average at the end of the 6-month cut. Makes perfect sense from an academician's or statistician's viewpoint, but of not much worth to those in the business. I am beginning to think it is not so much how much petroleum flows, but how much jaw-boning the market believes.. I would like to know how marine transport numbers (except for the anomalous 13.2 million barrels from Iran) confirm the decrease?. OTOH, I have it anecdotally that diesel, gasoline, and propane prices have risen 10% in the last month or so in certain parts of non-producing Latin America.
Oil up $1 on OPEC output cuts, China demand forecast Jan 11, 2017 11:44PM ET
I think you meant, "seizing", not "ceasing"
Commodities: Free Markets For Free Men Jan 11, 2017 2:25PM ET
Not sure at what the temps should be looking (temperatures should peek), but a good article nonetheless.
Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Dec 14, 2016 5:11PM ET
This is the worst excuse for an article I have read in a long time. It gives no information whatsoever except to be click bait for a doubtlessly as vacuous and pointless video.. Nothing happening here, move along...
Is Trumponomics Inflationary? Nov 17, 2016 6:45PM ET
Good summation, thanks.
OPEC Oil Production Negotiations: Where Things Stand Now Nov 01, 2016 4:19PM ET
Thanks for the update. Let's hope the 'ice capades' are a success!
Will Russia Join An OPEC Production Freeze Deal? Be Skeptical Oct 20, 2016 11:38AM ET
Essar seems to be a smart move for Rosneft. I am surprised one of the Gulf states didn't jump on that. Makes one wonder if they are maxed out?<br>. The Malacca Straits are about to get more crowded.
Phillips 66's Dividend Payment Impresses Amid Macro Risks Sep 29, 2016 2:38PM ET
*dependent*, not dependant. "Coming to the earnings surprise history, ..." I don't understand what this means? Please rephrase in proper English.
Will OPEC Ever Really Agree To An Oil Production Freeze? Sep 28, 2016 11:00AM ET
Thanks for the analysis of the major producers, but what of the other OPEC producers? (mainly sub-Saharan Africa)? I guess the other large producers in the Gulf will follow S.A.'s lead and the sub-Saharan producers have problems meeting the quota already assigned.. What are the chances that some of those producers (and Indonesia) would agree to giving up some of their quota to allow some leeway for Iraq and Iran. Probably would be political suicide for those giving up quota even if they can't meet their current level.. The new kid on the block is self-reporting vs. independent review. That roach in the rice is a good excuse for not making a deal.. And as has become the new 'now', they won't make a deal when they know the new swing producer 'shale' will benefit and take advantage of higher prices.
Here's How OPEC Manipulates The Oil Market Sep 19, 2016 3:19PM ET
Maduro must have read your analysis since he just decided to enter the game.
How To Navigate OPEC's Oil Market Manipulation Sep 12, 2016 3:34PM ET
Little doubt that the price of oil (and OE) will rise. The question is when and the hills and dales beforehand. My opinion is that the debt load of shale producers is the key (i.e. the constraints on the swing producers). Those that have access to capital and use it wisely will do very well; the others ... not so much.