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Do Deikins

Joined: 14/09/15

Comments by Do Deikins
What We Can Learn From Goldman Sachs' Commodities Failures Aug 23, 2017 11:20PM ET
Sounds more like an organizational error for GS, with fear and greed being thrown in for good measure.  I.e. Hiring, then firing the wrong people.  As old farmers are wont to say, "The best fertilizer is the footsteps of the farmer."  You gotta get out among 'em.  And as the great Yogi Berra would say, "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is."  So GS go ahead and fire those who just got started on their true education.  Some one else will be glad to snap 'em up.
The Energy Report: Oil's Total Eclipse Aug 21, 2017 2:29PM ET
Lot of movement of operating rigs in TX, OK, LA areas this last week.
What To Expect From Oil As Summer Demand Fades Aug 17, 2017 2:14PM ET
"Perception, not reality, will continue to have the greatest impact on prices in the short term."  Spin doctors only suffice for so long, though OPEC seems to have some good ones.
Will Crude Demand Plummet On Electric Vehicle Mandates? Aug 09, 2017 1:44PM ET
All hail our glorious solar future!  While little children work in horrible conditions mining 'illegal' cobalt in the DRC (from where 60% comes) and mothers grieve their dead husbands and children from cobalt lung disease and mine collapses, we can bask in saving the 'world' from nasty CO2.  Tesla alone is reputed to need 7,800 tons of cobalt (mostly for batteries) in 2018.  Much of the cobalt from the DRC comes through a network of virtually untraceable middle-men according to Amnesty International.
Will Crude Demand Plummet On Electric Vehicle Mandates? Aug 09, 2017 12:52PM ET
Ah, yes, batteries are a perfect black box.  We can put our hands over our ears and not hear the sobs of the child laborers working under harsh conditions in the cobalt mines of the DRC (from where 60% of the world's cobalt comes) and put on sunglasses so that we don't see the tears of the mothers who have lost their husbands and children to cobalt lung disease and mine collapses.  Tesla alone will reputedly need 7,800 tons of cobalt in 2018.  May our solar future shine brightly! - and our souls be soothed by how much we are saving the 'world'.  (And buy legitimate cobalt mining stocks.)  ¡Ay caramba!
The Energy Report: API Sends Shockwaves, OPEC Hits Targets Aug 02, 2017 5:25PM ET
When you're hanging over the rattler pit, a lil bit of cash flow is better than a bunch more if'n it's after the rope snaps.
China Oil Market Update: Russia, Saudi Arabia Compete To Dominate Aug 02, 2017 3:07PM ET
With close to 8 million bpd of oil imported by China, both of these two countries are only 25% of the total.  There are significant amounts from other, (dare say) less important countries that could be cut before these two.  East Asia hegemony is the guiding light of all things Chinese.
Crude oil prices ease in Asia after API reports build, EIA data ahead Aug 02, 2017 12:03AM ET
"... with the industry data (API) often seen as an unreliable place-setter for official data (EIA) later today"?  Ah, yes, that's what journalists repeat as a mantra.  But what is the actual percentage difference in the two statistical estimates?  Both of them are within a reasonable margin of error, especially considering the amounts come from so many different places with so many different factors.
Can OPEC Stabilize The Oil Market? Jul 26, 2017 12:02PM ET
Far more important for the OPEC/non-OPEC collaboration is the perception of trying.  Thus the chiding of Minister al-Rumhy of Oman to Libya's statement - "This kind of talk, he said, is keeping oil prices from rising."  Dr. Wald has inferred that they are trying to stabilize the market, but the jury is still out.  As they would say in West Texas, "Corralling cats ain't as easy as buttered bread."
The Energy Report- Oil Supply Falling And Geo-Political Worries Rising Jul 20, 2017 5:34PM ET
Thanks for the news.  I have heard that the Saudis are also shipping quantities of oil to fill up storage facilities in Japan.'s-fickle-oil-market,-small-news-can-drive-big-moves-200201951
Beware: Small News Drives Big Moves In Today's Fickle Oil Market Jul 19, 2017 1:15PM ET
Good call.  In this high-energy metastable environment with the delta of information getting smaller and smaller, one can watch the machinations of the producers (especially the Saudis) with great interest (no pun intended).
What OPEC Can Do About Added Oil Production From Libya, Nigeria Jul 12, 2017 12:19PM ET
Dr. Wald, hope you take the opportunity to be at St.Pete (the Russian one, not the Florida one) at the time of the meeting.
Chart Of The Day: Oil's Bear Rally Is About To Turn Ugly Jul 06, 2017 12:26AM ET
The trend is our friend ... until it's not!  Good synopsis, thanks.
6 Oil Trends To Watch, Even During The Slower Summer Season Jul 05, 2017 12:29PM ET
preeminent, not preeminant in No. 2
4 Things Investors Should Watch In Trump's Thursday Energy Speech Jun 28, 2017 10:21AM ET
Nuclear waste problem still an unresolved issue for most countries (except maybe Finland).
Weekly Comic: Booming U.S. shale production sends oil into bear market territory despite OPEC efforts Jun 22, 2017 11:41AM ET
"implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead" is the key. They don't put those holes in the ground to bury treasure, but to find buried treasure. There are nearly 6000 DUCs as of this week that can go into production relatively quickly. In general, the more rigs, the higher the potential production. Right?
What's Driving Oil's Dramatic Price Moves? Amplified Speculation Jun 22, 2017 12:40AM ET
Especially with the cost of capital rising. Let's hear for those who are deleveraged.
What's Driving Oil's Dramatic Price Moves? Amplified Speculation Jun 21, 2017 3:13PM ET
$25 would not be a bad number. [grn]
What's Driving Oil's Dramatic Price Moves? Amplified Speculation Jun 21, 2017 3:12PM ET
Key take-away is the number of DUCs (nearly 6,000). The Saudis, being from a climate where evaporation is the prime consideration in water usage, have forgotten that a small drip can fill a big bucket. Nigeria and Libya may come and go, but Argentina is about to come on-line. Better ***it up and tighten your belt, OPEC.
Post OPEC Cuts, 3 Factors In Play For Summer Oil Demand Jun 01, 2017 10:27PM ET
Thanks for the assessment of major demand factors & players. I would think that demand in India/SE Asia will increase from previous summers as they aspire to live a more affluent life-style.
Is Profitability Finally In Sight For Shale Oil Producers? May 04, 2017 3:57PM ET
The cost of capital is the biggest drain for wildcatters. Most I know are eternal optimists, knowing that if they could borrow a little more, they could produce enough to hang on. And as the cost of capital increases, they get squeezed. I am interested to see if the Saudis call their bet. I can see it happening.
Could 'Rebalanced' Oil Be Heading Back To $70? Apr 20, 2017 2:23PM ET
Your 'in other news' items, Dr. Wald, are often more interesting than your primary subject, though those are also very interesting. Since Rosneft is under sanctions from the US, GB, and much of EU (the last I heard), how is that going to work? Those two are acting more like capitalists, than they are socialists. Or maybe Russia will just expropriate Venezuela! I am guessing they wouldn't have given it a second thought under President Obama, though they might hesitate under the current back-slapping and saber-rattling administration of the US.
Ongoing Mid-East Tension To Drive Oil? Here's A Bigger Concern Apr 13, 2017 10:45PM ET
Oy vey! Disruption in the South China Sea. Good for Russia far east and WTI to Asia, perhaps? And would make oil cheaper for India and Europe, perhaps? Not so good for Africa, ME, and Australia. Good article in Forbes, though the graphic is a little out-dated (2014). It does emphasize the importance of the Straits of Malacca. Of course, they are not only economically important, but also are one of the most beautiful bodies of water in the world.