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Do Deikins

Joined: 14/09/15


Comments by Do Deikins
OPEC And Crude Oil's Future Price Nov 29, 2017 6:18PM ET
I was one who did not believe that OPEC would not cheat on their production cut agreement.  I am still skeptical of anything said by the Saudis, the second greatest card sharks, bluffers, and prevaricators in the world, next to Texans, the Chinese, and Aussies.  I can't count either.
Trickle Down Oil Economics Nov 28, 2017 3:30PM ET
Lot's of interesting points here, thanks - especially for the info on Keystone.  May be a while before it is running full bore.  If I was on the S.D. PUC, I would look closely at TransCanada's investigation and declared cause of the spill.  Not only is oil-sands crude hard on transport infrastructure, but TransCanada does not have a stellar rep on spending money on quality eqpt. and maintenance vs. e.g. Kinder companies.  Perhaps this is why COP bailed in 2009?. Not only is floating storage in the Straits of Malacca and the Singapore Straits down, but Iranian storage also.. Think the Brent/WTI spread will become tighter in the near term?
OPEC Time In The City Nov 27, 2017 5:37PM ET
Let us know if you find out anything about Keystone.  I am assuming that it is still down, since there seems to be little recent news.
Oil Supplies Getting Tighter Nov 22, 2017 1:30PM ET
With the outage, even temporarily (and maybe permanently), of the Keystone pipeline, heavy crude will be reduced downstream by 500,000 bpd - a significant dent in supply.  No saying how it will affect upstream production as oil sands have to reduce production to match local storage and alternate transportation.
Is The OPEC Oil Quota Deal Really Working? Depends On Your Metrics Nov 22, 2017 12:12PM ET
"Perhaps in a show of good faith before the November OPEC meeting, Iraq cut its production in the month of October from 4.5 million bpd to 4.38 million bpd."  Politely put, but it might have something to do with production/transport problems in Kirkuk and (the rest of) Kurdistan.  The Saudi's changed their game midstream from production quota to export quota.  A large part of Iran's "initially robust production rates"  were from storage put in place during restrictions, so it is easy to see why their production currently is not bearing up.  As they truck oil from Iraq, their perceived production will rise, or will that oil be counted in Iraq's production quota? . But in all this fudging, reserves seem to be decreasing and prices are rising.  As a Nobel Prize winner once said, "You don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows."
Distillate Dreams Nov 16, 2017 12:45PM ET
Looks like distillate supply decreased by 800,000 barrels, not increased by 700,000 barrels (EIA 2017 Nov 15).
The Surprising, Real Geopolitical Risk To Oil Markets Nov 15, 2017 1:36PM ET
Glad you can be at the OPEC meeting.  I am sure the behind the scenes activities and conversations will be far more interesting than those visible.  Look forward to hearing what you can share.  Wien auskosten!
5 Reasons Oil Is Climbing (Hint: It's Not The Saudi Crackdown) Nov 07, 2017 2:02PM ET
Certainly generalized reports do not precisely reflect a point in time, but they are data points.  Dr. Wald herself has talked of the sometimes erroneous assumptions made by the statisticians involved.  Statistics is difficult, as any honest practitioner will admit.. BTW, the API is most definitely not part of the govt.
5 Reasons Oil Is Climbing (Hint: It's Not The Saudi Crackdown) Nov 07, 2017 1:53PM ET
While I am concerned deeply about the condition of the sweet people of Venezuela, I was speaking more specifically of the continued problems in the oil patch there.  It is getting more difficult for PDVSA to buy light crude to mix with their heavy Orinoco and other heavy oils they produce as few will sell it any longer with just a promise of remuneration. They are running out of places to deliver the reduced quantities of oil that they are producing, because no one wants to process it or store it for them, because their quality is deteriorating and because their promised payments are in arrears.  And their equipment is deteriorating because those who would maintain it have left for elsewhere.  Surprisingly there are still people who think that they should receive compensation for that of which they have worked hard and that it should not be confiscated by those who feel they deserve that for which others have worked.. Do you know what percentage of the world's oil comes from A. Latina?
5 Reasons Oil Is Climbing (Hint: It's Not The Saudi Crackdown) Nov 07, 2017 1:40AM ET
Are not the problems in Venezuela affecting the market also?
Exxon And Chevron Both Posted Profits, But At What Cost? Nov 01, 2017 12:17PM ET
The Business Insider article about the significant cuts of the IOCs to capital expenditures seems to be the basis for your article.  Yet it is from July 2017.  A lot has happened since then, especially for XOM.  They have made significant expenditures for deep water assets in Mexico, Guyana, Brazil, and have put their toes deeper in the water (err, shale oil) in Argentina since July.
Saudi Arabia Moves On Oil Oct 24, 2017 12:25PM ET
Good info, good insight.  Thanks.
5 Reasons Why Oil Prices Are On The Move Again Oct 11, 2017 2:08PM ET
Modi appears to have been good for India, at least as far as business - first Rosneft, then a good deal for LNG from Exxon, and now Aramco.
5 Reasons Why Oil Prices Are On The Move Again Oct 11, 2017 2:05PM ET
Maybe, but my bet is drilling rigs are down this week even though prices are up.  While that certainly doesn't directly correspond to current production, it is a card worth holding.. Post
Oil Glut Lessens Oct 10, 2017 1:26PM ET
Unfortunately for the Iraqis, it is not who has the pipeline, but who controls Kirkuk.. Texans (especially Texas oilmen) love to gamble - especially with other people's money.  And it's always a good game when they're up against the Saudis.  Deal 'em.
Oil Traders, Are You Aware Of This Problem With EIA Data? Oct 05, 2017 1:24PM ET
Not incorrect, just not as 'precise' as some would like to believe.  For myself, I appreciate the weekly data points of both the API and EIA 'estimates' - just as I use data points from other sources, some of which I have gleaned from these articles of Dr. Wald.
Oil Traders, Are You Aware Of This Problem With EIA Data? Oct 04, 2017 5:11PM ET
Knowing the difficulties in analysis of decentralized data, I am duly impressed that the EIA and API get as close as they do.
Oil's Amazing Comeback Sep 28, 2017 4:58PM ET
Looks like you nailed it.  And kudos to the Texas oil companies and workers for a job well done considering the circumstances.  And for all those from everywhere who assisted and are still assisting in the recovery efforts.  (BTW OPEC did still cheat, just not as much as expected.)
Buffett calls pessimists about United States 'out of their mind' Sep 20, 2017 5:22PM ET
Scratching their itches rather than doing anything productive, maybe?  Not speaking just of the poor, but it seems many of all stripes these days prefer pleasures over honest, productive labor - whether of the mind, body, or soul.
Buffett calls pessimists about United States 'out of their mind' Sep 20, 2017 5:03PM ET
You can buy one share of the Dow? Wow! How?. And how many grams of gold did it take to buy a share of Apple in 2000?  And how many does it take today?
How Upcoming Kurdish Independence Vote Could Roil Oil Markets Sep 18, 2017 6:33PM ET
Kirkuk and other disputed areas that were majority Kurdish before the mid 70's and the subsequent Arabization of those areas are certainly a fly in the ointment.  Yours is a valid analysis though it is predicated on no conflict.  That is as certain as OPEC not cheating on production quotas.
Hurricanes And U.S. Rig Counts Sep 18, 2017 5:09PM ET
Check!
It's Not The Old, Innovative Apple Anymore Sep 13, 2017 2:02PM ET
Agree, agreed, and greed.
Will OPEC Extend Oil Production Cut Deal At Next Meeting? Sep 13, 2017 1:33PM ET
Dr. Wald, 1st paragraph 'parties', not 'parities'.  6th paragraph, the info about Sharara field repeated.  (Would prefer to private message about these errors or you welcome to delete this message after you make the corrections, if you desire.)  Thanks for the heads-up on the positions of the production cut participants.
Update: Global Energy Market Fallout From Hurricane Worsens Aug 31, 2017 4:43PM ET
Who thinks the refineries in Borger, El Paso,Tyler, Big Spring, Artesia, northern LA, OK, and NM are running at max?