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Al Brooks


Comments by Al Brooks
Fed Cuts As Expected But Policy On Pause Until Inflation Dictates Otherwise Oct 31, 2019 2:43PM ET
The institutions are 95% of the volume. They decide on whether the news should result in an increase or decrease in price. The charts tell me what their consensus vote is. I then trade in the direction where the charts tell me price will likely go.. . If you have been reading my posts, I have been writing since August that there would probably be a new high in September or October because the charts indicated that it was likely. But I have also been saying that the 22 month trading range is an area of agreement. Therefore, the bulls would probably have a difficult time breaking far above. So yes, a new high, but probably not a huge rally.. . Also, I have been saying for the past couple years that there would probably be around a 40% correction within 3 - 5 years. This is now 2 years later so I now think it will happen within 2 – 3 years.
Fed Cuts As Expected But Policy On Pause Until Inflation Dictates Otherwise Oct 31, 2019 2:42PM ET
There are so many variables involved with what the market will do in response to the news that it is impossible to use fundamentals to predict short-term moves.. . I want to draw a distinction between a trade and an investment. A trade is for minutes to maybe weeks. An investment is for months to years.. . I always assume that I am not smart enough to trade based on fundamental data. I could invest based on that data. I believe that the fundamentals indicate that the bond market will be lower 5 years from now and that the stock market will be higher. If I were interested in investing in them, I would short bonds and buy stocks.. . Will either be lower or higher 5 hours or days from now? If I were to place a trade within that window, I would exclusively base it on price action and totally ignore the news.
EUR/USD: Bear Rally Dec 21, 2016 12:15PM ET
Sorry about that. BO is Breakout and LH is Lower High.
SPX: Trump Rally Resumption May Form Double Top Dec 07, 2016 2:29PM ET
I look at the highest time frame that has the channel. This was a 25% day when the market rallied far above the 5 minute and 60 minute channels, and is very close to the top of the channel on the daily chart. . Five bars refers to the highest time frame chart where the channel is visible.
SPX: Trump Rally Resumption May Form Double Top Dec 07, 2016 2:27PM ET
Black swan event so can go a long way!
Emini Small Wedge Top At August High Nov 21, 2016 1:09AM ET
Traders know that all big markets are always close to balance because there always has to be institutional buyers and sellers. There is rarely more than a 60% probability of anything. When there is, it always has to come with bad risk/reward because there always has to be something in it for the other side. During 90% of the bars on any chart, a good trader can make money buying or selling if he uses a wide stop and scales in. Therefore, experienced traders always look at both the bull and bear cases. Anyone who only sees one side will lose.
Emini: Sell Climax Should Bottom Next Week Nov 06, 2016 4:00PM ET
The 30 year bond market monthly chart has a nested wedge top after a 30 year rally. While there might be one more minor high, the bong market is probably putting in the top for the next 20 years.. . None of this has to do with Trump, and not even with simply the US. It is a worldwide, unstoppable event. What remains is the timing and the extent of the reversal.
Emini: Sell Climax Should Bottom Next Week Nov 06, 2016 3:58PM ET
I take a much more simplistic view. I have been saying for 2 years that the monthly chart is telling us that the stock market has probed too far up and it needed a repricing, even if it went up a little more. It's natural to look at the news and assume causality, but long before Trump announced a run for the White House, the market was already telling us that it was in the process of creating a top. If a child in Brazil buys an ice cream cone, and then a hurricane hits Florida, did that child cause it? Trump has nothing to do with the big picture. When a starter shots the gun, the runners run, but they were already planning to run. Trump might be the starter's gun. It does not matter what near-term event coincides with the reversal, nor does it matter if the news wants to ascribe causality. The market is telling us that it is topping out no matter what happens in the US or anywhere in the world.
Stocks: Late October Bullish Seasonality Oct 24, 2016 10:09AM ET
While there is still time, the market is entering a seasonally bullish window. The odds are that the Emini will both drop below the July 2015 high and rally above the all-time high. It's been going sideways for 4 months as it decides which it will do 1st. Traders will buy the selloff to around 2050 and sell the rally to a new high.
EUR/USD Buy Climax Aug 02, 2016 11:17AM ET
Typo. The top of the June 24 sell climax is 1.1426, not 1.1111
ES 80-Point Reversal This Month Jun 07, 2016 7:48PM ET
Nobody pays attention to June 2015. Traders use continuation contracts.
EUR/USD: Tight Trading Range Jun 07, 2016 4:43PM ET
Trading ranges often last much longer than what most traders think is possible. This trading range on the monthly has gone on for more than a year and there is no sign that it is about to end. The odds still favor a bear breakout. However, every bar that gets added reduces the probability, and after about 20 bars, the probability falls to that of the bears (about 50%). I do not have an opinion of when the breakout will come. There is slightly more chance that the bears will get their breakout than the bulls will get theirs, but the market is balanced and there is no sign yet as to when the breakout will come. I am neutral until the market tells me that the move has begun.
Emini S&P 500: Watch For Pullback Jun 04, 2016 4:47PM ET
The Emini is testing the all-time high and deciding whether to breakout or reverse. Reversals are more common than breakouts. Every day that it does not breakout increases the chances that it will pull back below the May low and possibly to the middle of the 2 year trading range.
EUR/USD: Best Trading Strategies May 23, 2016 1:25PM ET
I mentioned that around a 50% PB would be a common outcome, which might then create a right shoulder of a head and shoulders top.
EUR/USD Is In Breakout Mode Apr 26, 2016 3:01PM ET
When you say figures, do you mean charts? There is a chart. Or, do you mean, price levels? I mentioned price levels. . Please specifically tell me what you would like me to do because I want to be understandable.
EUR/USD: Pullback This Week Mar 21, 2016 11:42AM ET
That is a good suggestion. The only reason I have not is that I am so overworked that it is difficult for me to add more. However, that is not adding much, and I will try to remember to see if I can start doing it on the weekend posts.. Thanks,. Al
EUR/USD: Pullback This Week Mar 21, 2016 11:41AM ET
That is a good suggestion. The only reason I have not is that I am so overworked that it is difficult for me to add more. However, that is not adding much, and I will try to remember to see if I can start doing it on the weekend posts.. Thanks,. Al
Emini: Trading Range Day Feb 23, 2016 10:57PM ET
You're welcome!
EUR/USD: Bear Breakout Feb 22, 2016 2:49PM ET
Day traders starting out should look for stop order entries and days with big swings. They can also buy the mkt or buy closes in strong bull trends or sell the mkt or bear closes in bear trends. Since most Fored day trading is scalping with limit orders, traders starting out should consider looking at 60 min, or 2, or 4 hour charts and trading small.. . I talk all day long about Emini scalps in my chat room, and there are so many trades that I do not have time to mention scalps in other mkts, although I sometimes do. Scalping is very appealing because the risk is small, which is the most important variable for beginners. However, the reward is small, and often the probability is as well, unless a trader is comfortable scaling in. Scalping is like a mosquito zapping light for beginning traders. They are drawn to it, but get killed. I could go on for hours here about it, but cannot take the time. If you are interested, you might look at my websites.
EUR/USD: Bear Breakout Feb 22, 2016 2:48PM ET
It is now 11:34 a.m. PST, and the bulls bought below the 4:35 am PST low and scaled in 10 pips lower. they got out part or all on the rally back to that low for a 10 pip scalp.. . Bears sold the 8 am PST rally, which was a low 4 sell setup and a double top bear flag with the 5:25 am lower high. They scalped out with 10 pips, or tried to hold for 20 pips. It was also a series of gap bars (gap between the low and the 20 bar EMA), which is a sell signal in a bear trend. . . Bull scalpers again bought the higher low for a scalp.. Many traders bought below prior minor lows and were willing to scale in lower, looking for 10 pips scalps. Bear scalpers sold above minor lower highs, like the 6:55 am PST high. Although a trader can make a lot of money trading this way, it is a bad way to trade if a trader is starting out. Limit order trading and scaling in for scalps is great for experienced traders, but is almost impossible to do well starting out. . .
EUR/USD: Bounce Ahead Feb 18, 2016 3:06PM ET
The EURUSD is in a TR, and nothing is exact. It usually falls below support before reversing up and rallies above resistance before reversing down. That is why I use round numbers instead of precise numbers.
EUR/USD: Bounce Ahead Feb 18, 2016 3:04PM ET
Please read my post from today for what is likely over the next few weeks. The EURUSD is still in its yearlong TR and it has hit 1.1000 many times. . . As for parity, the yearlong TR is still a bear flag on the monthly chart, which means that a measured move down based on the height of the flag is likely. That would be around parity.
EUR/USD: Bounce Ahead Feb 17, 2016 3:04PM ET
The 60 min EURUSD is oversold and at a level where buyers will probably come in (around 1.1100) for a bounce, maybe 50% to around 1.1250. The wedge top probably will then try for a 2nd leg sideways to down from the bounce.
EUR/USD: Bounce Ahead Feb 17, 2016 2:56PM ET
The 60 min EURUSD is at a support level around 1.1100, as I posted. This is a buy zone, especially with the chart oversold. Traders will look for a bounce and then possibly a 2nd leg down after the wedge top. A reasonable target for the bounce is around a 50% pullback, or around 1.1250.