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Steve Saville

  • Analysis & Opinion

Steve Saville's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of Steve Saville's articles, including current analysis & opinion - Page 2

The latest leading economic data indicate that the US expansion is intact. This is the case even though the following monthly chart reveals that the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI), one of...
The latest leading economic data indicate that the US expansion is intact. This is the case even though the following monthly chart reveals that in January 2022 the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index...
After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday 26 Jan., the Fed—via a post-meeting statement and a press conference—made it clear that it plans to end its bond monetization (QE) program in early-March and hinted...
It was reported on Wednesday 12th January that the year-over-year growth rate of the US CPI hit a new post-1982 high of 7% in December 2021. However, garnering less attention was the fact that the...
The oil futures market remains in strong backwardation. The fact that the oil futures curve still has a steep downward slope (meaning: nearer contracts are priced well above later contracts) indicates...
Popular measures of inflation such as the CPI and the PPI are backward looking, but the financial markets are always trying to look forward. To be more specific, current prices in the financial...
According to my Gold True Fundamentals Model (GTFM), the gold market’s fundamentals were bullish or trending positively from early-November of 2019 through to late-September of 2020 and were bearish...
In a 9 November post I wrote that the US TMS (True Money Supply) growth rate had fallen far enough to suggest that the next trend reversal in credit spreads from narrowing to widening would mark the...
The US government just reported a 6.2% year-over-year increase in the CPI (refer to the following chart). This was the largest increase since 1990 and the second-largest increase since...
The US financial system currently has an abundance of ‘liquidity’. We know that this is the case because US credit spreads are close to multi-decade lows. The probability of a liquidity crisis or...