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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

On Christmas Eve, the U.S. stock market appeared to be caught in a bear market, based on econometric analysis via a Hidden Markov model (HMM). Since then, we’ve seen a strong rally in the new...
Trading is set to resume today for the US stock market with value firmly in the lead for year-to-date performance for the major equity factors, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. In fact, a...
Global equities, real estate, and commodities posted solid gains last week, offsetting losses in bonds. Overall, it was a mixed week for the major asset classes, but an upside bias clearly...
The odds are still low that a new US recession has started, but economic momentum continues to slow. The headwinds remain moderate so far, but the potential for trouble later in the year is rising, in...
The partial government shutdown could be a slow-moving train wreck for the US economy, but for the moment the crowd’s inclined to reprice the major equity sectors higher in the new year...
Will the U.S. government’s stalemate over budget negotiations trigger a recession? In “normal” times this question would be dismissed as absurd. But the times they are a...
Economic output is still on track to decelerate to a moderately slower pace in the government’s fourth-quarter report on gross domestic product (GDP) due later this month, based on based on the...
Securitized real estate shares in the US led markets for the broad-based gains in the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Vanguard REIT (NYSE:VNQ), which targets...
Seven trading days don’t tell us much about price trends, but if we plead temporary insanity and restrict our view of performance to the 2019 calendar the numbers look encouraging. What can we...
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary meeting in December reveal a tolerance among policymakers for delaying additional interest-rate hikes. Low and stable inflation is a factor in the...