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Adem Tumerkan

  • Analysis & Opinion

Adem Tumerkan's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of Adem Tumerkan's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

Last week when Jerome Powell – the Federal Reserve Chairman – said that we were now “just below” the neutral rate of interest, markets soared and bonds rallied. In case you...
This year – 2018 – has been plagued by brutal market sell-offs. We’ve seen Emerging Markets implode and now it’s spreading onto Developed Market shores. China’s slowing...
Readers know that I haven’t shied away from stressing over the Federal Reserve’s tightening. As a firm believer in the Austrian Business Cycle Theory – first drafted by Ludwig Von...
The U.S. dollar continues being the single most important factor for the Emerging Markets. And as the dollar keeps getting stronger – it will continue crippling them. “But isn’t a...
Yesterday – news broke that new home sales plunged nearly 6% in September. This was the worst month since December 2016. This shouldn’t come as a surprise though. We’ve seen the U.S....
At the beginning of October – I wrote the piece “I Now See an 85% Chance of a Global Earnings Recession by Late 2019”. In it – I described using a Bayesian formula to...
Another week and another signal flashing red to deal with. . . The credit market – in my opinion – is indicating an inevitable ‘crunch’ coming up. And even worse –...
If you take a step back and look at the macro picture of the U.S. economy – it resembles a huge, upside-down, glass pyramid. Constantly teetering back and forth – struggling with...
There’s an old saying. “You can’t fight the dollar.” And what this means is: because the world’s chained to the U.S. dollar (thanks to its reserve status) –...
This is a repost of the recent Palisade Market Commentary – This morning, just as I had published my latest macro-piece – ‘Ground Zero’: Will the Dollar Shortage Kick Off The...