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S&P 500 Futures - Jun 24

CME
Currency in USD
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5,304.25
-4.00(-0.08%)
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S&P 500 Futures Discussions

Black swan (taleb 2007) has only three attributes. Corona was not a black swan because a virus is something you expect. It’s always a white swan. But indeed, it rekt the market… please first try to understand the theory, then talk…
Taleb says the Coronavirus was white swan because you expect it. I think it's up for debate. Yes, there are viruses, but we don't expect them to do the kind of damage this one did. In that sense, it was unexpected. And, many of the things that are considered black swans, such as the GFC WERE expected (ask Michael Bury). Is there something really deep and important about the concept that markets and responses are unpredictable?
That’s another discussion… you can argue regarding the attributes. But if you refer to Taleb you should know his opinion. I guess you are from deutschland?
Yes, I know that he doesn't think this pandemic was a black swan. (In fact, it was a pandemic, and not a bird at all, hahaha). I'm from the US.
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