Nasdaq 100 Futures - Jun 22

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    11,895.00 - 12,096.75

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  • Gut says this leg down on crypto will be long. BTC tried to hold 60K level several times and failed, and since crypto buyers are there purely for speculation (few actually believe it has any actual value, long term), then a declining price will likely see more and more jump ship. However, as we have seen with other bubbles, there's many who have seen major profits, so that causes a reluctance to sell and not buy back in. Could take another couple months to see BTC below 20K, e.g.
    • Market is short gamma, should see some downside pressure in the coming days.
    • If BTC falls, will it drag nasdaq down with it? Or are they not correlated?
    •  There are a couple of triggers that can move markets lower in the near future: The simple loss of momentum is one potential trigger. A second trigger could arise from tax increases. At the moment, there are only proposals of tax hikes by Biden’s administration. Once these proposals become law and assuming they contain significant tax hikes for households, investors’ sentiment could be hit. A third trigger could be indeed a potential collapse in crypto markets that would create losses for in particular retail investors inducing them to shift to an overall risk-off stance across risk assets.