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Karachi 100 (KSE)

Karachi
Currency in PKR
Disclaimer
72,086.02
+726.62(+1.02%)
Closed

Karachi 100 Discussions

Outlook for the Month of March 2024 & Expected Levels..... First and foremost, the historical data for the month of March is favoring bears, as in the past 12 years, bulls have been victorious for five times and bears have won seven times and in the last 5 years, bears have been victorious for 4 years while bulls have recorded just month in their name. those ten instances were in last ten consecutive years. While, from the charts view, the previous month’s closing under a Lower High & Lower Low formation with volumes at lowest in 5 months are some of the visible indicators that suggest a sideways or choppy trading ahead. Having said that, the good omen for bulls is that index ended the previous month with a breakout above Descending Triangle and that breakout has potential to overcome negative indicators and bring healthy volumes as well. Hence, any dip shall be considered as a buying opportunity. Support for the month is 63,600, followed by 62,800. While breach of 62,600 can drag the index to 60,800, where bottom for the month is expected. On the upside, the resistance is for the month is seen at 66,200 – 66,550 range, while stronghold above 66,700 will be calling a new All Time High Level of 67900.
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Review of the Month of February 2024..... Bulls Remained In Control Amid Extreme Volatility – Index Closed The Month With A Massive Gain Of 2599 Points...... The bulls negated the historical pattern of the month of February, as index closed the month with a massive gain of 2599 Points and ended the month of February on positive note for the first time after 9 years. During the month the index witnessed a wild roller ride, where it first fell to as low as 59,191 and then bounce to as high as 64,801 before ending the month at 64,578 with a massive gain of 2599 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a monthly total of 3.62 Billion, which is not just down by 46% from previous week, but is the lowest monthly total since September 2023 and indicates that the massive gains were mainly due to aggressive short covering.
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (February 29, 2024)..... Session closing above 63,700 and as Bullish Engulfing with highest volumes since January 25 2024 are favoring aggressive bulls, who are likely to take on 64,100 in the early hours of coming session. While hourly closing above 64,150 will be calling 64,300 followed by 64,500. Noting that 64,500 is seen as top for the day as well as key turning point as the coming session is going to be the last session of the month and bulls need surpass monthly resistance, which lies at 64,350 – 64,450. On the downside, the last strong breakout above 63,450 is now acting as support, while expected bottom for the day is at 63,100
The Session Wrap Up!!! After One Day Of Breather Bulls Made An Aggressive & Refreshed Comeback – Index Soared By 484 Points..... Amid yet another wild roller coaster ride, the bulls made a refreshed and much aggressive comeback as index soared by 484 Points with much higher volumes. During the session, the index first fell to as low as 63,042, from where aggressive bulls took charged and raced to as high as 63,929 before ending the day at 63,703 with a massive score of 484 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 265.8 Million, which is not just up by 15% from previous session but is the highest intra-day total since Jan 25 2024 and as the session ended with a Bullish Engulfing formation, the higher total suggests aggressive buying.
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (February 28, 2024)..... Constant rejection from 63,700 handle and last session’s closing as a look alike of Dark Cloud Cover with higher volumes is bad omen for current recovery. Hence, it is better to adopt cautious approach. Support for the day is seen at 62,960, while hourly closing below 62,900 can keep selling in tact till 62,400. Resistance is seen at 63,350, while expected top is at 64,100
The Session Wrap Up!!! Bulls Took A Breather After 6 Sessions Of Consecutive Win – Index Witnessed Correction By 86 Points...... A wild roller coaster ride was witnessed in the past session, where once again the index witnessed resistance at 63,700 handle that triggered healthy profit taking due to which index fell to as low as 63,055 before closing the day at 63,219 with a net loss of 86 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at total of 231 Million, which is not just up by 4.5% from previous session but is the highest total in last five days and since the session ended as a look alike of Dark Cloud Cover, this volume total is suggesting exhaustion from bulls and distribution at higher region.
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Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Week (February 26 To March 01, 2024)..... The weekly closing as a Bullish Engulfing formation and stronghold above 62,400, where 20-DMA (Days Moving Average) is lying, with Three White Soldiers formation on last trading of the week are all visible indicators that support bullish continuation. Having said that the real concern is inconsistency in volumes, as once again the weekly total is down by 10% from the previous week, which is suggesting panic short covering, instead of aggressive buying or accumulation. Hence, the main focus should on short term trading and rangebound play without going for overexposure. The bulls have established a target range of 63,150 – 63360 for coming week, followed by 64,020 – 64,450 range, where top for the week is seen. On the flipside, the support at 62,200 is likely to limit the downside, while expected bottom is at 61,300.
The Weekly Session Wrap Up!!! Amid Wild Roller Coaster Ride Bulls Made An Aggressive Comeback – Index Recorded Biggest Weekly Gain Since Dec 2023..... A wild roller coaster ride was witnessed in the past week, where index first tested the suggested bearish target and then bulls reversed the trend in an aggressive manner. During the week, the bears first took the index to our suggested target zone of 59,170 as it witnessed a low of 59,191 from where the bulls took charge and pulled the index out of the aggressively bearish trend to test a high of 62,945 before closing the week at 62,815 with a massive gain of 2942 Points, which is the biggest weekly gain since December 2023. Volumes from Kse-100 Index Stocks clocked at a weekly total of 940.16 Million, which is 10% down from previous week and indicates that this aggressive rally was mainly triggered by panic short covering.
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The Session Wrap Up!!! Bulls Kept Index Above 10-DMA For Second Consecutive Session – Index Gained By 355 Points .... The bulls remained strong for the 4th consecutive session, as index witnessed highest closing in last 6 sessions. During the session, the witnessed a shaky start where it witnessed a low of 61,460, where 10-DMA resistance turned support kept it away from aggressive selling and helped the bulls to take on 61,952 before closing the day at 61,914 with a net gain of 355 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 171.7 Million, which is down by 18.4% from previous session and indicates that aggressive buyers preferred remaining sidelined for 2nd consecutive session.
@iMemon  AoA Memon sb, Waiting for your precious review/analysis for today 22-02-24.
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (February 22, 2024)..... Session ending above 10-DMA (Days Moving Average), lying at 61,490, is a major setback for the bears and that is evident by previous session’s volumes, as nearly 20% of the day’s total was generated above 10-DMA, suggesting that buyers took aggressive positions. For the coming session, the recovery is likely to continue towards 61,890 – 61,930 range, while session closing above 62,400 is needed to pull the index out of aggressively bearish trend. Support for the day is seen at 61,27 while expected bottom is at 60,750.
The Session Wrap Up!!! Bulls Shrugged Off The Negative Indications – Index Soared By 1094 Points To End The Day At 5 Days High.... The bulls shrugged off the selling pressure, as despite Shooting Star on previous session they remained in control of the trend and added 1094 Points to the index kitty and closed the day at highest level in 5 sessions. During the session, the index did not just start the session with an upper gap, but without filling the gap they took the index above 61,500 to test the high at 61,620 before ending the session at 61,559 with a massive score of 1094 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 210.5 Million, which is down by 10.3% from previous session and indicates that the gain by massive 1000 Points was mainly triggered by panic short covering.
Sell the news event likely over next few days... Weaks hands will be dispelled in next few weeks for the sustained journey to 100k. Ideally the market should fall upto 42-45k range for sustained bounce
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (February 21, 2024)...... The session closing as a Shooting Star with higher volumes is not just suggesting Pump N Dump action, but is acknowledging the previous session’s sharp recovery was mainly due to short covering. This further weakens the trend on longer term. While for coming session, the range between 60,100 & 59,900 is the expected support and incase of breach of 59,800 on hourly terms, the selling can be aggressive till 58,600 – 58,450 range. On the upside, the range between 60,760 – 60950 can restrict the recovery with expected top now tilting down to 61300.
The Session Wrap Up!!! Amid Another Roller Coaster Ride Bulls Had A Narrow Escape – Index Ended Flat With 4 Points Gain.... It was another roller coaster ride where index remained stuck within the suggested range and ended the session at a flat closing. During the session, the index started with an upper gap and reached to as high as 61237 and then faced aggressive selling to witness a low of 60420 before ending the session at 60,424 with a flat closing having just 4 points of gain. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 234.89 Million, which is not just up a whopping 80% from previous session but is the highest total in last 5 sessions and since the session ended as a Shooting Star, this kind of total is indicating Pump N Dump action in aggressive manner.
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Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (February 20, 2024)..... The session closing as a Piercing Line formation, from the suggested support zone of 59,170, is suggesting exhaustion from bears that can keep recovery in-tact on short term.. However, the poor total in total is not supporting bulls, and indicates that sellers who covered their shorts at lower range can make another move on higher side once again. Hence, it is better to play the range. The resistance for coming session is lying at 60,760 with expected top at 61,150 – 61,450 zone. While, support is seen at the range between 60,060 – 59,950 with expected bottom at 59,640
The Session Wrap Up!!! After A Wild Roller Coaster Ride Bulls Recorded First Victory In 3 Sessions – Index Gained By 586 Points & Reclaimed 60K..... A wild roller coaster ride was witnessed in the last session where index tested the suggested support zone of 59,170 and then bounced sharply to reclaim 60K mark, as bulls recorded first win in 3 sessions. During the session, the index first fell to our suggested downside target zone of 59,170, as it witnessed the low of 59,190 before bouncing sharply to as high as 60,504 before closing the session at 60,459 with a net gain of 586 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 126.22 Million, which is not just down by 22.6% from previous session but is the lowest total since October 5, 2023 and indicates that the sharp recovery was mainly due to aggressive short covering.
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Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Week (February 19 To February 23, 2024).... The weekly closing below 60,800 is further strengthening the bears, who are likely to drag the index towards 59,170 initially, followed by 58,350 in the coming week. While, major support for the week is seen at 58,260, as 100-DMA (Days Moving Average) is lying at that zone, a support that is no breached since July 2023. However, breach of 58,260 can trigger another round of selling pressure with 57,100 as next exposed zone. On the upside, the recovery is likely to be limited at 60,590 – 61,100 zone.
The Weekly Session Wrap Up!!! Bloodthirsty Bears Retuned To The Field – Index 3rd Biggest Weekly Los Since The Year 2019..... The constant failure to surpass 64,700 triggered aggressive sell-off, as index witnessed the 3rd biggest weekly loss since the year 2019. During the week, the index started with a lower gap and without filling the gap, it fell to as low as 59,739 before closing the week at 59,872 with a massive loss of 3070 Points, the 3rd biggest weekly loss since the year 2019. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a weekly total of 951.52 Million, which despite being up by a whopping 84% from previous week and at the highest in last 3 weeks, is still not suggesting any accumulation at lows, as majority of the weekly volume, i.e. 432 Million or 45% of the week’s total was generated when market witnessed 2 sessions of gains and this indicates distribution to FOMO Victims.
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