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Karachi 100 (KSE)

Karachi
Currency in PKR
Disclaimer
67,166.38
+618.59(+0.93%)
Closed

Karachi 100 Discussions

krachi
ihsan
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Week (August 07 To August 11, 2023).... The weekly closing suggests a choppy and indecisive week ahead, as closing above 47,800 is an aggressively bullish indication however, the candle formation as Long Upper Shadow with highest volumes in more than 2 years along-with extremely overheated oscillators is suggesting that bulls are in a need of a breather. For the coming week, the resistance at 49,030 – 49,350 is now becoming stronger. While, support is seen at 48,020 – 47,600 range. Below 47,200, the correction can convert into aggressive selling. We reiterate that it is high time for adopting profit taking or at-least risk management strategy. to be able to manage cash flows and switch positions.
The Weekly Session Wrap Up!!! Bulls Scored Double Hat-Trick On Weekly Terms – Index Ended The Week At Highest Level In 6 Years..... The aggressively crazy bulls continued their dominance for 6th consecutive week, as index soared by another 1,508 Points to end the week at highest level in 6 years. During the week, the started the week with an upper gap and then reached to as high as 49,404 before closing the week off the highs at 48,585. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 1.455 Billion, which is not just up by 83% from previous week, but is the highest weekly volume since June 2021 and indicates that it was aggressive distribution. While the distribution was mainly witnessed in last three sessions when index traded between 48,680 & 49,400 and volumes totaled at 864 Million, which is 60% of the weekly total.
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (August 04, 2023).... The closing below 48,800 and with a Shooting Star is suggesting breather from bulls. However, there are no signs of exhaustion, right now, as the Shooting Star was not supported by bigger number of volumes. For the coming session, the index has support at 48,480, followed by 48,280. However, the level to watch is 47,300 as this is the level where correction can convert into sell-off. On The Upside….. The resistance is seen at 48,930, followed by 48,290 – 49,500 range here top for the session is seen. We reiterate that it is high time  for adopting profit taking or at-least risk management strategy to be able to manage cash flows and switch positions.
You have to make it, not readily available
Yes
Look at FIPI and LIPI data on NCCPL.com.pk or Sarmaya kind of websites.
The Session Wrap Up!!! Bears Snapped Bullish Winning Streak – Index Witnessed 1st Correction In 11 Sessions With Negative Closing By 153 Points.... After ten sessions of aggressive rally, the bulls took a breather, as index witnessed healthy profit taking and closed first session in negative zone, since July 19 2023. During the session, the index started with an upper gap and reached to as high as 49,404 from where healthy profit taking was witnessed and index fell into negative zone to test a low of 48,541 before closing the day at 48,611 with a net loss of 153 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 289.3 Million, which is down by 21% from previous session and since the index session ended with a Shooting Star formation, this kind of volume indicates that aggressive buyers took a break.
The Session Wrap Up!!! With 10th Consecutive Session n Gains Bulls Recorded Biggest Winning Streak Since June 2020.... There was simply no change in the trend as the exuberant bulls kept on marching on the charts and closed the session at highest level in 6 years. During the session, the index started with a negligible correction of 52 Points and posted a low of 48,178 and then bulls charged to as high as 48,852 before closing the session at 48,764 with yet another massive score of 534 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 365.63 Million, which is the biggest intra-day volume since June 14 2021 and is a clear indication of aggressive distribution, especially when index went above 48,630.
First post on 15 Aug 2022 identifying long term bull flag: https://invst.ly/10mx3d. Second post: 11 Jul 2023 identifying breakout of the bull flag: https://invst.ly/10vc94. Measured move still is ~68k. Either a break-out of ATH (still far) or better still, a retest of the bull flag at ~42k would give increased confidence of the next secular bull run in KSE. This is a long term developing pattern and has much less to do with daily movements or active trading.
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (August 01, 2023).... The closing above 47,700 further strengthens the bulls. Having said that, index is not just in heavily overbought condition, it is nor reaching a points where multiple resistances, based on the extended Fibonacci levels as well as the Harmonic Patterns along-with middle point of the rising channel from March 2020 low are lying. Hence, it is high time to go adopt profit taking or at-least risk management strategy to be able to manage cash flows and switch positions. The resistance is seen between 48,350 & 48,550 range, with expected top at 48,800. While support is at 47,770 – 47,600 range, with expected bottom at 47,200.
The Session Wrap Up!!!Bulls Recorded 8th Consecutive Win – Index Recoded A Massive Gain Of 957 Points To Close At Highest Since August 2021.....The bullish excitement continued for 8th consecutive session as despite overbought conditions the bulls did not take a pause and broke the barrier of 48K to close the session at the highest level since August 23 2021. During the session, the index started off with an upper gap and once again, without going into negative zone, it reached to as high as 48,126 before ending the day at 48,034 with a massive gain of 957 Points. Volumes from Kse-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 315.67 Million, which is not just up by 24% from previous session but is the highest intra-day total since August 17, 2022 and indicates that it was the day of aggressive distribution.
Monthly Outlook: First and foremost, the historic pattern for the month of August does not favor bulls, as since the year 2011, bulls have been victorious for 05 Months, while bears have recorded 07 Months in their name. Now, looking at the charts, the index has rallied by 8,234 Points since the low of 39,894 that was posted on June 23 2023 and in that rally no week was witnessed a closing with correction. While, oscillators on Daily and Weekly timeframe are in extremely overbought or overheated conditions that calls for a need of cooling down effect and the sooner if happens the better it will be to avoid bubble formation. For the month of August, the index has resistance at 48,350 – 48,550 where aggressive profit taking cannot be ruled out. If not, then the next level to watch will be 49,050 – 49,350 range, where top for the month is likely... Support is seen at the range between 47,350 – 46,900. While the threshold between correction and aggressive selling is at 46,100.
Review of the Month of July 2023..... Bulls Remained Aggressive On Charts – Index Recorded A Massive Gain Of 6,581 Points & Closed the Month At 74 Months High..... The month of July proved to be a bull friendly month,, as not only the index recorded a massive gain of 15.88%, but ended the month above 48K for the first time since May 2017, i.e. 6 Years. During the month, the index started with an upper gapped opening along-with a market halt and then without closing a single week in negative, it kept on breaking barriers and ended the week at 48,034 with a massive gain of 6,581 Points as well as the highest monthly closing with May 2017. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 3.727 Billion, which is the highest monthly total since June 2021 and indicates that bulls are not scared of taking aggressive moves at any time.
What is the reason behind this rally? What caused this confidence? Is there some backing for this or just a speculative run?
market up share rate stuck?
The closing above 46,800 is favoring aggressive bulls in the coming week, as exuberance and excitement is at peak. Having said that there is are some long term indicators that are suggesting to adopt cautious approach and indicate that a healthy corrective pullback can be seen anytime. The daily RSI is at 82, which is an extremely overheated indication, keeping in mind that KSE-100 Index has recorded the highest RSI value of 92 in the year 2003 and after that no rally has crossed the RSI of 88. Moreover, the Elliot Wave theory as well as the Harmonic Patterns, whether based on short term or the long term are suggesting resistance at 47,300 – 47,890 range. Hence, the range between 47,300 & 48,050 is where healthy profit taking is likely to be seen and therefore it is better to adopt Risk Management, instead of just getting carried away. The support for coning week is seen at 46,550 – 46,400. However, breach of 45,900 can turn profit taking into bearish reversal.
The Weekly Session Wrap Up!!! Bulls Recorded 5th Consecutive Weekly Win – The Biggest Weekly Winning Streak Since June 2020... The bullish excitement continued for 5th consecutive week and the index recorded biggest weekly bullish streak since the year 2020 and closed the week above 47K for the first time since November 2021. During the week, the index witnessed a low of 45,872 and then marched to as high as 47,393 before closing the week at 47,076. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a weekly total of 794 Million, which is marginally up by 4% from previous week and suggests that buyers were active.
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see map
The Session Wrap Up!!!  Bullish Excitement Continued – Bulls Scored Double Hat-Trick To Close The Session Since Nov 5, 2021..... The winning streak of bulls continued for 6th consecutive session, recording the biggest winning streak since April 2023, as bulls kept the exuberance in tact and took the index to highest session closing since November 05, 2021. During the session, the index, without going into negative territory, posted a high of 46,724 before closing the session at 46,682 with yet another massive score of 265 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 243.05 Million, which is not just up by 70% from previous session but is the highest intra-day total since July 11 and indicates that aggressive buyers made a move.
so good for karachi
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (July 26, 2023)..... Session closing above 46,100 gives further strength to the upside momentum. However, the extremely overheated intra-day oscillators and now the weekly resistance coming way along-with continuity of negative divergence on RSI are suggesting that index is about to witness Top Out scenario any time that can trigger healthy corrective pullback. Hence,  the strategy shall be to look for profit taking in order to manage cash flows, or at-least adopt risk management with trailing stop-losses. On The Downside…. The last resistance at 46,170 – 45,900 range is now seen as first support for the week, while breach of 45,480 can aggravate the profit taking. On The Upside…. The resistance is seen at the range between 46,600 & 46,780 can limit the upside.
The Session Wrap Up!!! Aggressive Bulls Remained Strong Above 46K – Index Posted A Gain Of 362 Points To Close At Highest Since April 19 2023..... The winning streak of bulls continued for 5th consecutive session, as despite a Doji candle based closing in previous session, the bulls remained in control and posted the highest closing since April 19 2023. During the session, the index started with a minor pullback at a negative score of 35 Points and then rallied to as high as 46,540 before closing the day at 46,417 with another massive score of 362 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 142.84 Million, which is not just down by 7.25% from previous session but is the 4th consecutive decline and index scoring new highs this kind of volume is suggesting that aggressive buyers are simply not willing to take fresh positions.
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Session (July 25, 2023) Session closing above 46K gives further strength to the upside momentum. However, the extremely overheated intra-day oscillators and the session closing as Doji formation are suggesting that index is about to witness Top Out scenario any time that can trigger healthy corrective pullback. Hence,  the strategy shall be to look for profit taking in order to manage cash flows, or at-least adopt risk management with trailing stop-losses. On The Downside…. The last resistance at 45,825 – 45,670 range is now seen as first support for the week, while breach of 45,050 can aggravate the profit taking. On The Upside…. The resistance is seen at the range between 46,350 & 46,470 can limit the upside.
The Session Wrap Up!!! 46K Surpassed – Bulls Closed The Session At Highest Level Since April 25 2023.... It was no looking back for the bulls, as despite some intra-day jitters, the aggressive bulls remained in control of the trend and closed the session above 46K for the first time since April 25 2023. During the session, the index first posted a high of 46,195, then witnessed intra-day correction till 45,872, before bouncing back and closing the session at 46,054 with a net gain of 134 Points. Volumes from KSE-100 Index Stocks clocked at a total of 154 Million, which is not just down by 25% from previous session but is the lowest intra-day total in last 3 sessions and suggests that aggressive buyers took a pause.
Outlook & Expected Levels For The Coming Week (July 24 To 27, 2023)... Weekly closing above 45,550 keeps aggressive bulls in control with 46,350 – 46,460 range as first target, followed by 46,780 – 46,930 range where top for the week is expected, Noting that the past week recorded a net gain of 852 Points, which despite being the 4th consecutive weekly gain, is the lowest gain in terms of points and the volumes were at three weeks low. RSI is still unable to get into positive divergence. This all concludes that bull power is losing its momentum and a good health correction is required, to avoid formation of bubble. Strategy for the coming week shall be look for profit taking in order to manage cash flows, or at-least adopt risk management with trailing stop-losses. On The Downside…. The last resistance at 45,480 – 45,300 is now seen as first support for the week, while breach of 45,050 can aggravate the profit taking will 44,800 as next level to watch.
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