Investing.com - Financial Markets Worldwide
Get 40% Off
Get 40% Off
👀 👁 🧿 All eyes on Biogen, up +4,56% after posting earnings. Our AI picked it in March 2024.
Which stocks will surge next?
Unlock AI-picked Stocks

Nikkei 225 (N225)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
JP225DerivedJPY
N225TokyoJPY
Currency in JPY
Disclaimer
37,632.50
+15.71(+0.04%)
Closed

Nikkei 225 Discussions

Dow will follow being green.
Many of the highest weighted stocks in this index currently have high PERs, some approaching 50. The top four, for example, have an average PER of 42.63. In light of this and other factors you have to ask yourself some questions. First, are these high valuations sustainable? Second, are the profits of these companies sustainable or are they part of a temporary profit boom? You also have to ask yourself if the high ratio of market capitilization to GDP is sustainable if GDP does not rise but interest rates rise. Rising interest rates will mean bonds become more attractive while the cost of business rises. Those factors all together, to me, suggest this index will fall. The value of the yen could also rise, which will put downward pressure on the profits of exporters.
Seems that everytime u post, Japs push it higher and higher ….
Central banks have been postponing the periodic bear markets that correct for valuation problems and fundamental weaknesses like zombie company growth. In the process they have weakened economies, opened the door for overcapacity, overexpansion, and huge increases in debt. Over time they will reach a point of no return when the houses of cards they have created will all collapse, or there will be hyperinflation.
On a market cap to GDP basis the Japanese market is now roughly 30% MORE ove rvalue d than in 1989. Very roughly speaking that amounts to being twice the price it should be. GDP has not really changed over the last few decades outside of fluctuations, and the population of Japan has declined and aged. This has happened while very recently stocks have climbed very steeply. The fact that this has happened despite no long running steady rise in GDP implies the rise is probably only temporary. That said, there was boom in profits but is it safe to expect this boom to continue? Profits have already fal len sizably in recent quarters according to the Ministry of Finance in Japan. The market cap vs GDP indicator is called the Buf fet t indic ator because, according to Bu ffet t it is the single best way to get an idea of an entire market's valuation. This doesn't mean the market will drop suddenly today or tomorrow. But can you safely expect good returns if you buy at very high market prices--especially if you account for risk? In summary, at these levels the Japanese market currently has very little upside potential vs pretty big downside risk. This implies a very assymetric trade if you go long or stay long at these prices. That makes buying now or even holding a pretty ris k y prospect. That said, if you expect G D P to double and continue to rise from there in the next couple of years, no pro blem. And yes, there are stocks in the Japanese market that are under val ued, but if there is a big se ll of f, which I think could happen, then those stocks will probably get even more un derv alu d. Just my two cents.
Stocks won’t go up staight lines all the time. there is gonna be some corrections at some point. People are freaking out about dropping a couple of percents. Come on! Llook at the growth from the beggining of this year. it is very strong. Over-valued? Big bubbles? No. if you look at those individual stock, most of them are under valued. Stop freaking out, and fear-selling. it might take a couple of weeks, even months to get out correction but after that it has potential to grow.
The BOJ, sailing along its primose path... And new investors joining in the party... All drinking punch by the bowlful. Unbelievable.
This index is going to be KOed, will stay down, and will take decades to recover. Get out while the going is good and you still can.
Not gonna happen..the govt wont let it happen. At the most 2K drop from 1st small rate hike ( if they really hike rate this time "
What bullets does it have left? The government debt is at extremes, the BOJ balance sheet is at extremes and the bank rate is NEGATIVE. Lol.
Result speaks for itself...
On a market cap to GDP basis the Japanese market is now an even bigger bubble than in 1989. Roughly 30% bigger. The government and corporate debt levels are also much, much higher now, GDP has been roughly flat for decades and the population has not only declined but aged a lot. The BOJ’s endless extreme crisis emergency monetary policy has expanded the number of zombie companies to a staggering 17% of all companies. It has robbed the people of Japan of a return on savings so that they save even harder. Amazing!
Ashish Kumar
Rate hikes are needed in Japan big time. Negative rates are ridiculous in the face of inflation. And also ridiculous in the face of anything but a very very extreme emergency crisis, to be frank. And the country is soooo slow to respond to market conditions. All of the corporate and sovereign debt the country has amassed because of the long running ridiculous rates are going to be a real problem for Japan going forward. Unbelievable.
That's what you get when academics who slept through class get power. These people in power are clueless.
The call it experiments. Children do experiments. History is there going back to John Law in France literally hundreds of years ago. Doing the same thing and expecting different results is nuts.
They*
Red begets red. This dog has topped. Any higher and the bubble would grow to being even bigger than 30% bigger than in 1989. That is highly unlikely. If anything, this will get cut in half in time.
red.....
Red
Every dip is always bought back up...seems like japan is protecting thie stocks..
That's probably dip buyers who did the same thing the whole way down when the Nasdaq bubble burst in 2000, taking most participants back to zero and lower and even to losses vs their initial capital. This will be under 20k in time. It will probably be down to 28k and lower pretty fast.
I fail to understand why people rush to buy any stock or index AFTER a huge run up, expecting it to keep going indefinitely. Academic studies show clearly that reversion to the mean is a far better trade most of the time vs trend chasing.
The truth is Japan has been selling its stocks in recent times, counterbalancing the sales with ETF purchases so as not to create too much of a problem in the Japanese market. Uchida has also talked about reducing ETFs in time, saying it would be a problem for markets. Believing the BOJ would be a net buyer in a huge, hot money driven bubble, powered by speculation is a stretch of the imagination.
Sell only sell. market very high zone and sell zone
buy only buy... 41700 waiting :D
I dont know exactly, but guess that this could very easily be under 28k within six months. Perhaps a lot sooner.
U been saying that since last year....
Statistics have their limits. And I dont have a crystal ball. I do know that this is ridiculously overpriced though. Hence, it is only a matter of time. Gimme a break. I am the only person on this forum with any comments worth anything.
Look at the high prices of stuff in both Japan and the US--especially food. Prices are nuts. Lots cannot afford to pay the high prices for your basics. Some folks cannot pay for food and eat cereal for dinner. And the BOJ is a big part of the cause with its endless extreme crisis emergency rates--and even in the face of inflation. Why? Because such rates foster Fomo and speculation and bubbles. Average Joes who have maxed out credit cards, car loans, etc and who can hardly afford daily living are piling into stocks--setting themselves up for major losses and trouble--especially in the US. One of the causes is free, easy money and yen borrowing because it promotes very cheap leverage, margin, Fomo and speculation. If you have been around long enough you know this is not going to end well. As Jim Rogers put it recently: the biggest bear market in our lifetimes is coming. But when it does hit, the problem is, these unsuspecting average Joes are gong to get creamed.
selling during Asia, buying during USA
The US is a huge bubble, as big as Japan. Neither market are good places to be at these nosebleed prices. If you are an investor these prices are nuts and you have already sold. Look at all the insider CEO and CFO sales in the US. The recent sales are unprecidented. If markets are going up why are all these insiders selling by the truckload. I think the US is at a top or very near one. And I am hearing the drumbeat of voices all saying so, with nobody saying it's time to buy.
If you want to be long, be long Singapore, the Hang Seng and very very select stocks in China like Alibaba. The US and Japan are absolutely not places to be now. Buy low and sell high, not the opposite.
Red again for this index.
There's a lot more to come. A looooot more.
If The U.S.A stock market closes up tomorrow the Dow will be higher than the Nikkei.
Correction over Chuck? please write some monolog tonight to :)
Dude. Market cap to GDP in Japan and the US are very very high. In other words, both are not only in bubble territory, but by a huge margin. As for central banks, they efforts have done nothing but moved money from most in the population to the wealthy and elite. Trickle down is a fantasy. Trickle up is what has happened.
No investor wants his or her money in a market that is a huge bubble. This is a hot money market for speculators that will pull their money out in the blink of an eye without thinking twice. As for the BOJ trying to play the roll of a union. Wage hikes are the business of a union and the worker. People who are not happy with their pay can leave their jobs for better pay elsewhere, or can join a union and fight an unfair employer. Inflation is the business of a central bank. Having extreme, urgent emergency crisis policy in place in the face of inflation is poor policy.
role*
Governments also have the option of simply raising minimum pay. Again, pay is not the business of a central bank. Inflation is.
There are incredibly far better places to park your money than in a very slow growing--if any growth country with very low productivity, very high corporate and govt debt and a very high market cap to GDP ratio--not to mention declining population--namely Japan. There is absolutely no reason for this market to be so overpriced now. It is simply hot money having moved in--and that will leave just as quickly or faster.
red
There is no reason for the BOJ to keep its policy in extreme financial crisis mode indefinitely. None at all. And in the face of inflationary forces? Silliest policy on the planet by a mile. The reporcussions of such poor policy combined with uncontrolled government spending are going to come to roost going forward with more lost decades. The country is going to have no choice but to change its ways or remain in low or zero growth endlessly. As for Japanese stocks and this tech heavy index? They are currently ridiculously priced. GLTA.
Hello
The propogation of bubbles is all the BOJ has achieved. There is no reason for extreme emergency crisis policy in a time of inflation. And in times of deflation all it does is allow governments to overspend, the gross misallocation of capital causing future overcapacity and the misallocation of capital, the propping up of zombie companies, etc. all of which sow the seeds of future crises.
happy now?
Ouch.
...
...
Install Our App
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.