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Airbus Group SE (AIRG)

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160.52
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AIRG Comments

Polish LOT, a historically Boeing and Embraer customer, is favoring an order of 60 Airbus A220. I predicted this order half a year ago, since Boeing tried to cheapskate LOT about compensation payments for the groundings, and Embraer has no capable planes. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/polish-carrier-lot-said-to-favor-airbus-a220s-in-order-contest#xj4y7vzkg
Wow if even Lufthansa returns to profit, then aviation right now is at its best year ever
Expect more aircraft deals next week ✈️🚀
Currently, news sites report about 300 orders so far this year. However, the massive orders in the tune of around 500 total last month was not counted in the tally yet. Then, massive orders expected for Farnborough. This year, we could break 1.5k orders.
Aviation is recovering ,the airlines , AIRBUS and Boeing are taking off today leading the trend
Airbus delivered 60 in June and about 300 this year. However as every year, Airbus will have a fifth quarter as is tradition in December, so they will likely deliver about 750 this year.
I think it will be difficult to reach 750 I think the target is 700 or 720 and is already a very ambitious target with all the disruptions in particular with the engines
 I remember this discussion last year already with supposed supply issues. Yet, Airbus delivered more than they initially estimated. Supply issues are also resolving fast with most disruptions coming from Russia, not worldwide as a year ago.
Metal prices are actually dropping fast now, which implies raw material supply exceeding demand. I think this has to do with short term production going down for more consumer products like cars which has a very short-term production horizon. Airplane manufacturers are very forward looking however and plan ahead decades so this is a golden opportunity for Airbus to stock up supply for the planned ramp up.
The A321 neo is the most sold plane for Airbus with by far the highest margin. Now that Boeing threatens to cancel the max 10, or the max 10 at the best being released many many years delayed, this will provide Airbus with even more pricing power to demand an even higher premium than now. Airbus reportedly earns 20%+ margins on each A321 neo. It is as if Google threatens to cancel all Android phones, Samsung Xiaomi etc not selling phones anymore, giving Apple the freedom to raise prices even higher giving them even crazier margins than now. This is not even priced in.
On another news, transatlantic passenger volumes is above 2019 levels, tendency going up fast. Many other flight destinations (Canada, USA-Pacific) have a 20 percentage point uptick the past week.Airlines expected this uptick in 2024-2025. It seems like we are already above the projected 2025 level, in 2022
Apart from the talks for A220s for China, Airbus is in pole position to secure thirty A330 neos to Malaysia Airlines. It will likely be announce on Farnsborough. Previously, Malaysia Airlines cancelled an order for Boeing 787.
So Airbus, with the China, India, Malaysia and Easyjet order may just receive about 20 percent of Boeings total backlog within 2-3 week.
Boeing threatens to cancel the max 10 because they wanted an exemption to not implement a safety feature , EICAS, a warning system that is necessary for every new airplane since the 1980s. Only the 737 max has not implemented it yet, the only 'new' airplane flying. Now US congress may not grant another exemption and the MAX 10 program would be dead.What it tells me is that Boeing wont be able to certify the max 10 until the end of the year and congress seems to not want to grant another exemption... after 40 years of giving the max such an exemption. This would be political disaster to give an exemption for such an important safety feature that contributed to the 737 max crashes.On another news: After the 300 A320 neo order, China wants to buy A220s from Airbus too.
@eagle when 🚀 ?
I'm here for the long term. I see strong support at 88 in 2 or 3 years I see Airbus above 150
I am long as well
no more short but it drops
83 soon
Boeing and Airbus are both -30 percent this year. However, Airbus beat expectations in Q1 by 100 percent, and received 400+ orders in june, with rumors of another 150-350 from Air India. Boeing lost 300 plane order from China, MAX is not going to be certified it seems, 777x cannot be certified this decade, 787 delays, and Q1 they exceeded the expected losses by -2200 percent (actual -2.75 vs expected -0.12). Boeing also did not receive any major orders this year. It is complete insanity that Airbus is even negative this year on par with Boeing.
Dont come with inflation and Airlines not being able to finance new planes. Airbus is sold out until 2027 and airlines can easily borrow money from Airbus own bank (yes they have their own bank and can borrow at central bank interest rates).
Below 90. The last time it was below 90, 1 percent of the population was vaccinated
That was Feb 2021. In 2021, Airbus posted their highest earnings ever in their entire history
I am in accumulation fase, whenever I get some free cash I buy some more.
Yes, at least I can pump in 3k€ every month in this. Still complete insanity. The overall market is at pre pandemic stock level, while Airbus is 50 percent below it, and 70-80 below its fair value.
400 orders within two weeks, lowest stock value in 1.5 years
-2 percent since the announcement of 292 orders from China worth 37 billion dollars.
Very very conservative estimates of the intrinsic value put the current market cap valuation of Airbus at 120 billion, which implies a stock value of 155. This implies that Airbus is about 60 percent undervalued right now. As said, conservative estimates because we assume that Airbus cannot exceed the GDP growth rate of France in 10 years for any year. We all know that this is ridiculous for Airbus, since aviation is growing very much outside of France or Europe given the GDP growth rate of developing countries, paired with even more increasing appetite for travel in those countries. About 90 percent of the world population never flown on an airplane, which is rapidly changing with growth. With estimates not being the most conservative estimates, the current valuation should be north of 200+, so Airbus is undervalued by at least 100 percent as of today, the 4th of july.
Airbus orders since 21 june: over 400 confirmed, with about 300-350 rumored. Airbus stock since then: 1.5 percent down. Boeing orders since 21 june: 0, Boeing stock since then: 10 percent up.WAY undervalued
In a month, Airbus had more net orders than Boeing in 3 years.
This half year, Airbus already had about 750 orders vs Boeing with about 240. The Airbus orders does not count military orders yet, nor the rumored massive Air India order of 300+ planes.
37 billion dollar order its bonkers...
I hope so
Wow! The China airlines order is massive and we still have talk of the Air India order!
The China order is not even priced in yet, since this stock has been going sideways since the announcement...
ALMOST 300 JETS ORDERED FROM CHINA ANNOUNCED TODAY. China Eastern will buy 100 neo, Air China 64 neos, Shenzhen 32 neos. Together with the China Southern orders of 96, we arrive at 292 orders. Air India at least 100 neo and 50 A350, 56 neos for easyjet and the planned 5 billion dollar order from Jet airways in India for A220 and A320s.
This order is worth more than 37 billion dollar.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/china-southern-inks-12-2-billion-deal-with-airbus-for-96-jets
China Southern orders 96 Airbus A320s for list price of 12.2 billion dollars.This is funny because 3 weeks before, China Southern did a 737 max test flight which propelled the Boeing stock by 20 percent. I guess the Chinese know something about the max and wont order from Boeing even if Boeing tries to sell them their max for heavy discounts
In may, China Southern cancelled 100 Boeing 737 max orders
Analysts who follow Airbus see free cash flow reaching €6 billion in 2023, a level totally unprecedented in the history of the group. The dividend could thus amount to almost EUR 3 per share, i.e. double what was paid in respect of 2021.
Analysts were constantly wrong the past years about Airbus. Airbus exceeded earnings expectations every quarter so far last year, sometimes by double. They don't consider that during the pandemic, Airbus renegotiated many contracts for later deliveries for a much higher payment. Airlines wanted to do that because the neo is HIGHLY demanded. Boeing couldn't do that because no one wanted the MAX. Also, production ramp up means economies of scale being exploited.
IAG converts 14 Airbus options into orders.
upupup @eagle
Airbus stock investment is not going well in the past year, althought the company is doing great, in the last 4 quarters it beat the results yet the stock went down. I am here for the long term and keep acumulating, bought more 50 shares today at the close at 92.3. The stock has great support at 88, thats why I am a buyer at these levels. I am confident 120 will be broken this or next year, and expect the diidend to continue to increase. In times of crisis Airbus is a safe bet.
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