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USD/TRY - US Dollar Turkish Lira

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13.5517 -0.0958    -0.70%
16:59:45 - Closed. ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Currency
Group:  Exotic
Base:  US Dollar
Second:  Turkish Lira
  • Prev. Close: 13.6475
  • Bid/Ask: 13.5467 / 13.5567
  • Day's Range: 13.4813 - 13.6648
USD/TRY - US Dollar Turkish Lira 13.5517 -0.0958 -0.70%
Dollar Gains After Fed Minutes Point to Early Rate Hikes
Dollar Gains After Fed Minutes Point to Early Rate Hikes By Investing.com - Jan 06, 2022 6

By Peter Nurse Investing.com - The U.S. dollar pushed higher in early European trade Thursday, boosted by rising Treasury yields after the minutes from the December Federal Reserve meeting raised...

Turkish inflation soars to 36%, highest in Erdogan era
Turkish inflation soars to 36%, highest in Erdogan era By Reuters - Jan 03, 2022 7

By Daren Butler and Jonathan Spicer ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey's annual inflation rate surged to 36.1% last month, its highest in the 19 years that Tayyip Erdogan has ruled, laying bare the depths...

Dollar Edges Higher Off Range Lows; Jobless claims Due
Dollar Edges Higher Off Range Lows; Jobless claims Due By Investing.com - Dec 30, 2021

By Peter Nurse Investing.com - The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, but remained near the bottom of its recent range in holiday-thinned volumes as fears over the Omicron Covid-19...

Dollar dips in quiet holiday trading
Dollar dips in quiet holiday trading By Reuters - Dec 29, 2021 2

By John McCrank NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar edged lower in thin holiday trading on Wednesday, while the safe-haven yen touched a one-month low as investors looked beyond a surge in Omicron cases...

Dollar Largely Flat; Good Times Likely Lie Ahead
Dollar Largely Flat; Good Times Likely Lie Ahead By Investing.com - Dec 29, 2021 1

By Peter Nurse Investing.com - The dollar traded largely unchanged early in the European session Wednesday, struggling for direction in holiday-thinned volumes, but looks set for a strong 2022.  At...

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USD/TRY Discussions

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Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 27, 2022 12:53PM ET
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Holding rather good given what the dollar did today
Oguz Han
Oguz Han 13 hours ago
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Probably because they are selling $$ again
Martin Luther King
Martin Luther King Jan 26, 2022 3:38PM ET
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It's not like I'm downplaying the side effects of the coming hike but DJ flatlined first then took a nose dive at the end of 2018 during the hike part of the FED cycle. A lot of people are raving on about a coming collapse of the markets but that didn't happen back in 2018 and the market dynamics weren't all that different but for inflation. That means in the foreseeable future macro indicators will determine the course this pair will follow and not a thing like the credit crunch that took place in Q3/2008.
Juxta Posed
Juxta Jan 26, 2022 3:38PM ET
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Martin Luther King You stated "back in 2018 the market dynamics weren't all that different but for inflation." Well... Let's not forget about Covid, supply chain shortages, microchip shortages, effects of climate change, Russia maybe invadinding Ukraine, Dec 2018 BTC-USD $3,854.69 - Dec. 2021 $47,169.37,     billionaires Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg selling off huge shares of their own stock etc; etc; etc;. Let's see what else could possibly have been different in 2018 than now as pertaining to what could have market influence. 2018 Brent Crude oil $71.34 2020 $41.96 This one market difference was directly related to Covid and the lock downs, hmmm What else was different from 2018 till now that could have impact/influence on the markets? Input anyone?
Khwarizmi Algebra
Khwarizmi Algebra Jan 26, 2022 3:38PM ET
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Juxta Posed I look at it from a balanced view: world economies will gradually open up and normalize, supply chain and materials shortages will ease as economies open, interest rate hike will be implemented in a balanced manner, and therefore I expect to see inflation start reducing in few months. Prices of everything will not fly as crazy as in 2020/2021 and some will be under pressure and indevisually correct in price without collapsing a whole thing. In short, I think 2022 & 2023 will be stabilizing and organizing years where every individual item goes back to its place.
Juxta Posed
Juxta 14 hours ago
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Khwarizmi Algebra , balanced view, normalize, Normalize to what, when? We we are one variant away from another possible lock down, one wrong blink away from a possible war with Russia. If Turkey takes sides with Russia? US Sanctions. The opposite. Goodbye TurkStream. A magic wand is going to get waved and cool the planet? I don't think "every individual item goes back to its place". I would really like to know where/how to obtain the data that supports that position of "normalize"? Crystal balls don't count. Last year the fire in Siberia (Russia) was larger than all other fires ongoing across the world combined, the first time in recorded history that wildfire smoke reached the North Pole. Nothing is the same or will ever be the same. There are exponential scenarios and variables that macro indicator data do not include. Did you know that Gross National Happiness is a macroeconomic indicator? Right now I am not happy and there is no way I can tell if I will be more or less happy by the end of this year.
Exporter Guy
Exporter Guy Jan 26, 2022 2:09PM ET
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Okay, FED kept interest rate same this meeting signaling increase in very next meeting. This is what I expected, I wonder what dislikers was expecting :) After conference I would wait to see some 13.70 area movement but we will see that one, maybe not.
Atilla Thcengiz
Atilla Thcengiz Jan 26, 2022 1:23PM ET
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I wonder if the ruling party has any grasp of the term "contradiction" which is a main pillar of Logic. Confessing an opportunist belief in Nass aka Dogma in order to promote own economic and political interests shows how corrupt and infidel the current regime is.
Atilla Thcengiz
Atilla Thcengiz Jan 26, 2022 12:50PM ET
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Another trial: Produce & Export
Atilla Thcengiz
Atilla Thcengiz Jan 26, 2022 12:49PM ET
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Last should be: Produce & Export ;)
Atilla Thcengiz
Atilla Thcengiz Jan 26, 2022 12:47PM ET
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CB should spend its reserves on filling natural gas reserves of Turkey and pay Iran for the gas rather than burning them on a mission impossible task.Industrial production has come to a halt at various OSB's (Organized Industrial Areas) for at least for a week due to lack of electricity, hereby contradicting the main pillar of the so-called new model: Produce & Export ;)
Emre SH
Emre SH Jan 26, 2022 12:43AM ET
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Turkey CDs dropping goverment 2 year lira bond interest rate calming - as next Lira to 13.2 than 12.8 expectations still on table
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 26, 2022 12:43AM ET
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Still quite high at 524 for 5 year CDS , last jan it was 280 ,, but yes the lira stabilised for now which is good ( if it stays like this ) ,, FED laters ..
Emre SH
Emre SH Jan 26, 2022 12:43AM ET
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Yes still very high but 150 points down is a relief short term
Exporter Guy
Exporter Guy Jan 26, 2022 12:43AM ET
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No interest raise on this meeting but giving signals for next meeting is expected. I think we may see 13.70's, lets see :)
Exporter Guy
Exporter Guy Jan 25, 2022 7:08AM ET
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As forseen, it stabilizes at 13.50 area :) Now we watch for FED decision, I expect they will not raise the rates on first meeting and this will stay in 13.50-14 area short term (Q1-2022) as I say for last 2 months. Then I expect small steps towards 14-15 area by June, and 16 by the end of the year.
Exporter Guy
Exporter Guy Jan 25, 2022 7:08AM ET
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I wonder if dislikers think USDTRY will be 20 in a week and they get rich ? Go to crypto baloon for that... Or the ones thinking it will be 8 ? Both ideas are equally stupid, sorry. Like it or not this is what will happen. Go against it and waste your money.
Chengjun Zhang
Chengjun Zhang Jan 25, 2022 7:08AM ET
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but u forgot one thing, it's erdogan and his erdogan, 16 to 10 within one week then back to 13 within 2 weeks. its too depends on his dicision. u never know what he gonna do with his own encomic theory.
Exporter Guy
Exporter Guy Jan 25, 2022 7:08AM ET
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That is only one time bullet. He cannot do anything to push it down any further, not with current volume. That was conbination of manipulation and holiday season backed with backdoor selling. Also it is not their benefit anymore, they wanted strong USD but not a way it sky-rocket to 20 with panic. They achieved the goal actually, this pair is rised to an "acceptable" level if you substract insane sky-rocket panic and insane manipulation intervene. No more big movements if there is no a giant news.
Chengjun Zhang
Chengjun Zhang Jan 25, 2022 7:08AM ET
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hmm. u might think it's not gonna happen, but as i said, he is erdogan, he is too good at control public opinion, create panic, calm people(fake news like 50B dollar from Saudi Arabia). he will do everything to win next presidential election. never say never.
Zunga Danga
Zunga Danga Jan 25, 2022 3:21AM ET
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At the request of government, fake data are given in inflation rates, real inflation is 10 times the fake inflation. Everyone in Turkey knows this, only the supporters of the government support the lie. Turkey is going to the moratorium. Banks are going bankrupt.
haymana kingdom
haymana kingdom Jan 25, 2022 3:21AM ET
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there is not any product which price increased less than %50 in 2021. however Goverment announce the inflation rate as %19! Turkey is like Greece in 2001, all numbers are fake
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 25, 2022 3:21AM ET
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Nearly most countries ( cook ) their inflation data,, if in the US and Europe they say 7% it means 13%,, if Turkey says 19% maybe close to 30%,, it doesn't really matter what the data says,, its what your money in the bank buys at the end of the day,,, and irrespective of which country you live in you should stick most of your capital / savings in hard assets and watch all currencies burn over the next decade.
Emre SH
Emre SH Jan 25, 2022 3:21AM ET
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Private Banks are first time real profit last year around 20% profit rate dont mix business and people situations
Anna Kaliszewska
Anna Kaliszewska Jan 25, 2022 2:18AM ET
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Trash currency artificially locked on 13.50 by government. It should be already 16+.
Anna Kaliszewska
Anna Kaliszewska Jan 25, 2022 2:18AM ET
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Money from swap will end and this will fly.
haymana kingdom
haymana kingdom Jan 25, 2022 1:20AM ET
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There lots of optimist freak out there:) The governtment borrowing is triplet in the last 3 years, this is the real issue about the inflation in Turkey. The interest rates for government borrowing is %23 while banks get funds from Central Bank %14! This is a sunk economic policy already
Wheat Observer
Wheat Observer Jan 25, 2022 1:02AM ET
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CHF IS OVERBOUGHT AND OVERVALUED !
Wheat Observer
Wheat Observer Jan 24, 2022 4:05PM ET
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CHF IS OVERVALUED ! SNB !!
Martin Luther King
Martin Luther King Jan 24, 2022 1:39PM ET
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I think several months ago one dude here mentioned that the FED was in for a rude awakening due to spiralling out of control inflation something Dwain also pointed out. At the rate it's going the FED could do a hike north of 25 basis points this March maybe a 50 basis points. That sentiment seems to be rocking the stock and crypto markets today.
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 24, 2022 1:39PM ET
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They will likely lift rates to 1% over three or 4 hikes ,, the market will crash hard which will give them a good excuse to cut to 0 and start another round of QE ( inflation will have eased due to a rising dollar and recessionary environment) ,,, covid provided a good excuse for the last QE but the debt rates are now impossible to service with high interest rates so the only was is to create risk event in the markets to force creditors to accept 0% return for their bonds in exchange for safety
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 24, 2022 1:35PM ET
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The BIST index is Now in bear market territory having dropped exactly 20% from 2400 to 1900 in less than a month ,, , maybe this is whats supporting the lira lately as many exiting and going into this lira protected scheme ( which we still have to wait and see if it works )
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 24, 2022 7:30AM ET
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Flying out of Istanbul Airport under heavy snow conditions,, impressive the number of plane de-icing stations and cars on the runway,, kept disruption to a minimum ,, impressive airport,, Turkey seems never short of resources of anykind,, but maybe average incomes have now become too low to be able to afford much of these resources  .
ابو محمد علي
ابو محمد علي Jan 24, 2022 7:30AM ET
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2 days ago when this started we had to wait 2 hours in the place to have it de-iced and yesterday they canceled 25% of the flights
ابو محمد علي
ابو محمد علي Jan 24, 2022 7:30AM ET
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And you just got lucky ... Due to adverse weather conditions, all flights at Istanbul Airport have been temporarily stopped for flight safety.
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 24, 2022 7:30AM ET
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ابو محمد علي   Yes i was worried it will be stopped at some point,, snow was piling up heavily everywhere as the plane took off,, lucky escape i guess !
Billy Curtis
Billy Curtis Jan 24, 2022 4:27AM ET
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what Turkey is doing is hard pill to swalow but its a necesary step, cant always chase low inflation with high interests. Yes South Korea did it btw after economic crisis in 1997, Loan from IMF practically left Sk dead so they created financial safety net with other asian economies, they didnt take a loan from IMF after that
Chengjun Zhang
Chengjun Zhang Jan 24, 2022 4:27AM ET
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KRW/USD 800/1 1997KRW/USD 1800/1 1998.
Dwain Hobbs
Dwain Hobbs Jan 24, 2022 4:27AM ET
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The difference is Turkey does not have an economic crisis,, it has a currency crisis with high inflation,, the only way out of this is the hope that the 100% rise in usdtry in 1 year have crushed imports and catapulted exports to the level that the current account balance gets a major improvement and the currency stabilises,,, needs a pickup in economic activity as well which will be very challenging now that consumers real incomes have been crushed..
Fatih Yalçın
Fatih Yalçın Jan 22, 2022 12:23PM ET
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Why the ***everybody thinks thats all about the interest rates? It is about trust. They are playing with economy like a game. So nobody trust them.
Anony Mouse
Anony Mouse Jan 22, 2022 12:23PM ET
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I'd say they are disposing tax payers' money to keep their governing power and hoping these tax payers would vote for them. It is an illusion. The only reality is that the Turks are getting poorer.
Logical Indian
Logical Indian Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET
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I like your app but your analyst are making mockery by their prejudices against Erdogan. They talk about Lira 18/20 when CB is neutral on reducing even the repo rate. Plz advise them to keep reputation of your name. Erdogan is not going to last for life. Maybe he will be defeated in the 23 Elections. But all true analyst can see the transformation he has brought in his 20 years rule in the Turkish economy without global support. Its not that he has not made mistakes but ultimately history will judge him with all his faults as he has brought Turkey in a decently growing top 20 economy.
Logical Indian
Logical Indian Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET
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I like your app but your analyst are making mockery by their prejudices against Erdogan. They talk about Lira 18/20 when CB is neutral on reducing even the repo rate. Plz advise them to keep reputation of your name. Erdogan is not going to last for life. Maybe he will be defeated in the 23 Elections. But all true analyst can see the transformation he has brought in his 20 years rule in the Turkish economy without global support. Its not that he has not made mistakes but ultimately history will judge him with all his faults as he has brought Turkey in a decently growing top 20 economy.
Show previous replies (7)
Martin Luther King
Martin Luther King Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET
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Logical Indian Would you like to fill us in on the import figures of late? And no that 40% debt to ratio is a bogus percentage - it says nothing about the FX denominated debt w/up to a year or less in maturity or the capital inflows or the current account deficit or the central bank reserves.
Salahuddin Ayyubi
Salahuddin Ayyubi Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET
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Martin Lutherpig
Logical Indian
Logical Indian Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET
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So only what you point out is correct, when basically we should not argue endlessly and just accept the internationally published figures in reputed organizations (not Turkish). I just did that I don't want to get into argument with anyone.
Martin Luther King
Martin Luther King Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET
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Logical Indian Read about the 1997 Asian financial crisis and go over the debt to GDP ratios for Asian economies during that period before and after the onset of the crisis. Once you're done the percentage you've quoted will make no sense to you.
Burcin Onur
Burcinonur Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET
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Hi , Where do you get Turkeys actual FX Debt data ? many thanks
The Boomer
The Boomer Jan 20, 2022 11:56AM ET
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Resistance :13.65 Support :13.15
Atilla Thcengiz
Atilla Thcengiz Jan 20, 2022 10:14AM ET
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The interest rates for $-based bonds of the Turkish state should be paid close consideration rather than the illogical and artificial rate dictated to the CB. Rates for two year bonds are ca. 6% and for 10 year bonds around 7.77%. I wonder what will happen when those rates pass 10% as Fed becomes more hawkish. What is the PLAN, if any, of the CB? Reserves are in negative territory, they keep burning the LOANS and possibly very soon the GOLD of the people.
Exporter Guy
Exporter Guy Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET
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Okay. My expectations are matched.1- Interest rate is kept same. (Checked(2- USDTRY is waving around 13.30-13.40 (Checked)3- It will go back to 13.50 area and stabilize. (Waiting):)
Emre Yazgin
Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET
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The only thing is you expect 16 at the end of the 2022. I have noted that :) My bet is 20 or above.
Exporter Guy
Exporter Guy Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET
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Emre Yazgin If we will talk on economic policies and reserves and other manufacturing data, you could be right. But we both know that there will be an election that "should not be lost", and even if that means burning reserves to keep this rate, they will do it. Remember the times when Berat was in power and burnt hundreds of billions of USD. Considering we have an election ahead, they will just do it if it moves dramatically. I never voted for the current goverment but these are the realities that we need to consider. Our emotions or excitement won't change anything other than making us do bad estimations = lose money. After the election we may see some higher numbers if they let it go, but current situation shows that it will not reach there, even if that means backdoor reserve burning like they did before. Well these are all estimations and expectations but I believe I have a good reason :) By the way I neither trade USDTRY nor supporter of current administration. I am just an exporter trying to act carefully on my calculations and trades.
Emre Yazgin
Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET
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Exporter Guy  You have some valid points. I do agree that elections and usd try at 20 or more does not go well together for the current admin. I think we both could be right. Let me explain. At some point dollar WILL be 20 just like I think, and at some point they will (again) make it go down with some sort of instrument they invented for election.
Juxta Posed
Juxta Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET
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Emre Yazgin  That's right. The song is the same old chestnut (playbook) through history. 1. Create the problem - Become the solution. 2 "I alone can fix it."
Emre SH
Emre SH Jan 20, 2022 8:45AM ET
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12.8 target next week should hit
Emre Yazgin
Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 8:45AM ET
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I would LOVE that...but I don't see why it will break 32, or 20 or 13.00
Emre SH
Emre SH Jan 20, 2022 8:45AM ET
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Emre Yazgin all technicals that should work under rate hold status
 
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