USD/TRY - US Dollar Turkish Lira

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Why the ***everybody thinks thats all about the interest rates? It is about trust. They are playing with economy like a game. So nobody trust them.

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Logical Indian Jan 21, 2022 11:54AM ET

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I like your app but your analyst are making mockery by their prejudices against Erdogan. They talk about Lira 18/20 when CB is neutral on reducing even the repo rate. Plz advise them to keep reputation of your name. Erdogan is not going to last for life. Maybe he will be defeated in the 23 Elections. But all true analyst can see the transformation he has brought in his 20 years rule in the Turkish economy without global support. Its not that he has not made mistakes but ultimately history will judge him with all his faults as he has brought Turkey in a decently growing top 20 economy.

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Logical Indian 14 hours ago

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Let's not bring politics but only facts. Not only Turkey's exports have increased to $225B surpassing pre-covid figure of 2019 of $180B, the export coverage ratio without counting services has increased to 83% from 75% of 2018. The public debt obviously will increase for any top 20 economy but the percentage of Debt to GDP is less than 40%. So just pointing out the absolute number of 2021 from 2002 is like diverting the progress made.

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Martin Luther King 13 hours ago

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Logical Indian Would you like to fill us in on the import figures of late? And no that 40% debt to ratio is a bogus percentage - it says nothing about the FX denominated debt w/up to a year or less in maturity or the capital inflows or the current account deficit or the central bank reserves.

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Salahuddin Ayyubi 13 hours ago

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Martin Lutherpig

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Logical Indian 10 hours ago

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So only what you point out is correct, when basically we should not argue endlessly and just accept the internationally published figures in reputed organizations (not Turkish). I just did that I don't want to get into argument with anyone.

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Martin Luther King 4 hours ago

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Logical Indian Read about the 1997 Asian financial crisis and go over the debt to GDP ratios for Asian economies during that period before and after the onset of the crisis. Once you're done the percentage you've quoted will make no sense to you.

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The Boomer Jan 20, 2022 11:56AM ET

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Resistance :13.65 Support :13.15

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Atilla Thcengiz Jan 20, 2022 10:14AM ET

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The interest rates for $-based bonds of the Turkish state should be paid close consideration rather than the illogical and artificial rate dictated to the CB. Rates for two year bonds are ca. 6% and for 10 year bonds around 7.77%. I wonder what will happen when those rates pass 10% as Fed becomes more hawkish. What is the PLAN, if any, of the CB? Reserves are in negative territory, they keep burning the LOANS and possibly very soon the GOLD of the people.

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Exporter Guy Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET

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Okay. My expectations are matched.1- Interest rate is kept same. (Checked(2- USDTRY is waving around 13.30-13.40 (Checked)3- It will go back to 13.50 area and stabilize. (Waiting):)

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Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET

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The only thing is you expect 16 at the end of the 2022. I have noted that :) My bet is 20 or above.

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Exporter Guy Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET

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Emre Yazgin If we will talk on economic policies and reserves and other manufacturing data, you could be right. But we both know that there will be an election that "should not be lost", and even if that means burning reserves to keep this rate, they will do it. Remember the times when Berat was in power and burnt hundreds of billions of USD. Considering we have an election ahead, they will just do it if it moves dramatically. I never voted for the current goverment but these are the realities that we need to consider. Our emotions or excitement won't change anything other than making us do bad estimations = lose money. After the election we may see some higher numbers if they let it go, but current situation shows that it will not reach there, even if that means backdoor reserve burning like they did before. Well these are all estimations and expectations but I believe I have a good reason :) By the way I neither trade USDTRY nor supporter of current administration. I am just an exporter trying to act carefully on my calculations and trades.

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Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET

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Exporter Guy You have some valid points. I do agree that elections and usd try at 20 or more does not go well together for the current admin. I think we both could be right. Let me explain. At some point dollar WILL be 20 just like I think, and at some point they will (again) make it go down with some sort of instrument they invented for election.

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Juxta Jan 20, 2022 9:40AM ET

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Emre Yazgin That's right. The song is the same old chestnut (playbook) through history. 1. Create the problem - Become the solution. 2 "I alone can fix it."

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Emre SH Jan 20, 2022 8:45AM ET

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12.8 target next week should hit

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Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 8:45AM ET

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I would LOVE that...but I don't see why it will break 32, or 20 or 13.00

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Emre SH Jan 20, 2022 8:45AM ET

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Emre Yazgin all technicals that should work under rate hold status

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Billy Curtis Jan 20, 2022 6:33AM ET

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No rate cut, not a surprise, but this pair gonna hit 12.8 in no time

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Dwain Hobbs Jan 20, 2022 6:33AM ET

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Would have been mad to cut after the struggle to get this little ( stability)

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Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 6:33AM ET

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12,8 in to time....I find that hard to believe. Even a pass in rate cut doesn't have any effect...Its 13.42....so where we started

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M_Swashbuckler Jan 20, 2022 6:33AM ET

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Could you explain how, by what force, assuming more hawkish FED policy?

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Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 6:22AM ET

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You know when something is seriously ill and about to die, it can't move, it can't react..

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Reha Esen Jan 20, 2022 6:14AM ET

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It was a surprising decision, No rate cut. Then this pair bounced back to 13.40 level, a second surprise.

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Dwain Hobbs Jan 20, 2022 6:14AM ET

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No surprise , they did mention end of cuts at the last meeting ,, even erdo talked differently this time

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Reha Esen Jan 20, 2022 6:14AM ET

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Dwain Hobbs what the minister or tcb head says has no importance at all. They have no autonomy or authority. The only boss is the big guy.

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Anna Kaliszewska Jan 20, 2022 6:08AM ET

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Nothing changed 14 on the way

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alkarim hassan Jan 20, 2022 6:02AM ET

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Unchanged

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Ahmet Yıldırım Jan 20, 2022 5:47AM ET

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Interest rate will be betwwen 12-14

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Emre SH Jan 20, 2022 5:18AM ET

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Cb will hold make a hawkish statement 12.8 target after

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Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 5:18AM ET

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Sure?

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Emre SH Jan 20, 2022 5:18AM ET

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Emre Yazgin yes

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Emre Yazgin Jan 20, 2022 5:18AM ET

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Emre SH :))) Ok now Im sure too :))

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Emre SH Jan 20, 2022 5:18AM ET

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Emre Yazgin finally a small breather for economy

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Martin Luther King Jan 20, 2022 1:10AM ET

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You need to understand fellas if the central bank has a covert mandate imposed upon them by parties you might fathom they're gonna do their darnest to intervene whenever the market is thin which usually coincides w/the closing time of the local banks. W/each rate cut there'll be pressure on the TRY to lose value in this inflationary environment and the closer the rate cut approaches the more the central bank will intervene.

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Seller Beware Jan 19, 2022 8:40PM ET

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The more It goes up the more worth less It becomes

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Juxta Jan 19, 2022 8:40PM ET

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Please, Please tell me of how you came upon this most profound, prolific and majestic knowledge my wise sage soothsayer, seeker of knowledge and kindred of the Gods?

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akljsdf askldf Jan 19, 2022 8:40PM ET

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urgot will annex the shorties

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Exporter Guy Jan 19, 2022 4:19PM ET

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I think I was consistent with my expectation of 13-14 range for Q1-2022 for a few months now... What I think is : Tomorrow the interest rate will be kept same.I expect USDTRY to be around 13.30-13.40 area in the morning and then stabilizes around 13.50 area. This will keep staying same if there are no giant news before FED rate hikes. We will see.

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Dwain Hobbs Jan 19, 2022 4:19PM ET

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Q1 ends after 10 weeks , it can explode to 15 next week and 17 in 10 weeks time

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Exporter Guy Jan 19, 2022 4:19PM ET

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Dwain Hobbs Not so possible anymore Such big movements are not likely. I believe we may see 16 by end of the year but thats it. Also it will be a rise in time, not like rocket jump that happened like the last time. I am not an economy expert but since the interventions, when they pushed down USDTRY to 11 area I was constantly foreseeing 13-14 range stabilization with 13.5 areas being more likely, and it is what we have. Everybody was expecting giant rocket jumps on the years first inflation data announcement but it still did not move aggresively. I believe same will apply any news that are not utopia like President is yelling "kill the interest now !" which I doubt he will do before 2023 election. He wants a stabilized currency and will do everything for it and you know what, he can do it if it is what he wants to :)

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Emre Yazgin Jan 19, 2022 4:19PM ET

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Exporter Guy I have seen many like you in this forum since 4 years. "Not possible it can't pass this" "not possible it cant pass that"... My friend, end of the year dollar is 20, write this down somewhere. Do you even live in Turkey? Do you know that prices are being effectively calculated with 1 dollar = 18 or in some cases 20-25 ?? Do you know the borrowing interest? Do you know what actual interest rate is (given interest minus inflation) ? Inflation was priced from 11 to 13.5, what do you mean it didnt change??? They are blocking the river right now with some instruments they invented or repurposed from ancient times, but remember thi you can't block the river forever, when it does start flowing nothing can stop it.

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Franz Wallace Jan 19, 2022 11:12AM ET

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Preparing for big move. Initial TP 12.8

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alkarim hassan Jan 19, 2022 11:02AM ET

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What’s happening

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alkarim hassan Jan 19, 2022 11:02AM ET

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What’s happening

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Magnum Dong Jan 19, 2022 9:06AM ET

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I think tomorrow there might be a surprise rate hike. you can ask why? because overnight borrowing rate is increased to 15 percent, and most importantly bank shares increased in the stock market. considering also what happened yesterday, I believe this information is leaked and there will be good profits for the ones involved in it, by that I mean the government wealth fund and the rich guys supporting the current government. Long story short, if my thesis is correct it could drop significantly and suddenly for a few days starting after 2 pm tomorrow. remember that central bank just received 5 billion dollars from uae

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Bekir Selman Jan 19, 2022 9:06AM ET

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They said this month inflation will peak then downwards. To make that happen they need to hit around this date and time so the following months the market can only begin to re-settle. We will see.

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Magnum Dong Jan 19, 2022 9:06AM ET

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seems like they started early

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Bekir Selman Jan 19, 2022 9:06AM ET

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Could be yeah. Maybe Temp. By no means Im an expert, but imo the rate gotta be around 10~ so they can claim that they fullfilled their economic outlook they promised for 2022.

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Bekir Selman Jan 19, 2022 9:06AM ET

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Could be yeah. Maybe Temp. By no means Im an expert, but imo the rate gotta be around 10~ so they can claim that they fullfilled their economic outlook they promised for 2022.

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Bekir Selman Jan 19, 2022 9:06AM ET

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Could be yeah. Maybe Temp. By no means Im an expert, but imo the rate gotta be around 10~ so they can claim that they fullfilled their economic outlook they promised for 2022.

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Juxta Jan 18, 2022 9:20AM ET

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I have researched this scheme/guarantee and it is still not locked down. 1. What I saw was that this scheme/guarantee has to be passed into legislation before any type of refund can be made by the government if the Lira depreciates. 2. If passed, the banks would refund the money difference of any Lira depreciation from time of deposit to maturity PLUS you still get your interest. I doubt you will make any interest on any portion of the depreciation refund, but this is just my opinion as there isn't any information on this. 3. The interest rate is fixed at the CBRT rate of 14% as of now but not clear if the rate is locked/blocked from a future rate cut or increase. 4. The banks would not be refunded by cash from the government but by being issued some type of government bonds of which I can find no information on these bonds. 5. I did not find any information as to the number of accounts you could have like having 1 savings account at 5 different banks or how many to a family, husband/wife.

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Juxta Jan 18, 2022 9:20AM ET

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Reha Esen I know what you are trying to say and the point you want to make. I will one up you. You give me a thousand dollars and come back in one years time and I won't give you back "MY" thousand dollars.

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Reha Esen Jan 18, 2022 9:20AM ET

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Juxta Posed ahahahaha, good one!

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akljsdf askldf Jan 18, 2022 9:20AM ET

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If you can get 14% pa PLUS any Lira Depreciation, that seems an extremely rewarding preposition. I fail to see how this cannot be extremely attractive. Once the legislation hurdles are sorted.

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capitalist rebel Jan 18, 2022 9:20AM ET

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That's not how it works. Say if you deposit 100 lira when the USD/TRY rate is 10 and after a year the rate is 15. You've made 14 lira in interest, plus the CBRT will pay you an additional 36 lira for the lira depreciation protection. At the end of the year you get back 150 lira (Your 10 dollars back).There is absolutely no point to depositing money into this imho. If the USD/TRY rate remains stable, then your TL is getting crushed under inflation, if the lira keeps depreciating, then you only get your dollars back. Utterly pointless when you can deposit your USD and earn interest on your USD.

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Reha Esen Jan 18, 2022 9:20AM ET

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capitalist rebel you either get crushed by Turkish inflation-14 basis points, which is 22% at the moment according to the state statistics agency, or you get crushed by U.S. inflation, which is around 7% at the moment. Thanks, but I’ll take my chances with the market fluctuations :-)

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jp1960 Jan 18, 2022 7:30AM ET

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Erdogan backing off on interest rate cuts.The central bank has cut its policy interest rate by 500 basis points to 14% since September and put easing on pause until the end of March to assess the outcome of its monetary stimulus. The central bank rate-setting meeting is scheduled for Jan. 20, and Erdogan’s remarks appear to be confirming that borrowing costs will be kept on hold.

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Oguz Han Jan 18, 2022 7:30AM ET

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backing off ??Om the contrary,,He said today that rate cust will continue..

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jp1960 Jan 18, 2022 7:30AM ET

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Erdo speak with fork tongue.

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Umar Munir Jan 18, 2022 7:30AM ET

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JP JP So, after the rate decision on 20th, where do you see this pair heading?

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jp1960 Jan 18, 2022 7:30AM ET

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short term take your guess, long term, that is in the next 3-6moths the lira is falling.

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Dwain Hobbs Jan 18, 2022 3:53AM ET

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Folks, if anyone can elighten us on the new scheme,,, assuming someone converts dollars to TL in this new account scheme,, keeps it for 3 months,, the interest or profit in TL would be say around 3%,,, how much will the lira have to weaken before the scheme protection is activated ? is it 3% and higher ? is it calculated from actual rate of coversion or, from a certain threshold for usdtry (e.g. 14 ) ,, And when will these payments / refunds be made (after 3 months or 1 year ),,

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Dwain Hobbs Jan 18, 2022 3:53AM ET

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Abdullah Alattas thanks for the clear answer,,, just one further question on ( if your USD value appreciates you get nothing ) ,,, don't you get the daily interest for that period ? , e.g. the 3 month period one holds TL ),,

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Pen Pen Jan 18, 2022 3:53AM ET

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Yes, lets say monthly interest is %1 and 3 months you get %3. When you enter if usd was 12, after 3 months let say its 13. That makes %8.5 difference. In that case bank pays you %3 and CBRT pays you difference %5.5. if USD is still 12 after 3 months, then you only get %3 from the bank, which is a profit. Lets say after 3 months USD is 12.2, which is %1.6 difference lesser then %3 of what bank gives. Then you only get %3 from the bank.

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Bekir Selman Jan 18, 2022 3:53AM ET

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/yawni like the part that declares "i have some friends working there..." so rest of what i say is credible.

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Bekir Selman Jan 18, 2022 3:53AM ET

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Not sure about the "Lord Roths" part but "child" part is pretty convincing alright.

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Dwain Hobbs Jan 18, 2022 3:53AM ET

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Pen Pen thanks Pen , all clear now

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ferhat Yedek Jan 17, 2022 8:27PM ET

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This is golden band. Usually bigger buyers buy at this stage for the mid-long term. critical range to buy at short term is around 13.0960-13.12400. short term buy range is 13.6800-13.7600. +trend making point is 14.1400. -trend point is 12.9600. - I dont think - trend will be last long.

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Batuhan Babür Jan 17, 2022 3:36PM ET

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New base was 8-8.5 for a short period of time and now its 13-13.5 nothing changed. As stated before until the current government leave the office TRY will never gain value and stabilize. Trash administration, trash time and trash life...

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Salahuddin Ayyubi Jan 17, 2022 3:36PM ET

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So who is the prophet for Turkey to make 1 try 1usd?

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