USD/TRY - US Dollar Turkish Lira

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35.4307
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USD/TRY Discussions

People who only focus on the negatives miss good opportunities when they come,,, the Turkish lira has been one of the best FX investments this year,, if your capital in dollars converted to Liras at the start of January the bank interest througout the year average of 40% through the year,, that capital returned back to dollars on last day of the year ( today ) the loss in exchange rate is around 16%,, overall profit in dollar terms a whopping 24% ! ,, this is NOT matched via US treasuries (5%), or any other emerging market currency,, you want to make regularl profits leave emotions and bias out of the trading equation ,, Happy new year !
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Its easier to tell the story after it ends than before it starts. That was involving very high risk of TRY collapse or even losing your capital. If we feel sorry now for not buying TRY with all our money and not having saving account in turkish bank, then we should feel more sorry for not going all in a stock like palantir that multiplied by 400% or nvidia that multiplied by 200%. By the way, for turkish residents it is useless because the inflation rate was over 60% which means eating the value of their TRY currency and ending up witha net of -20% in value.
if you scroll a little down ( May 14th ) you will realise that i told the story before it happened ,, i even managed to make decent returns with this lira income trade hence my above message .. it could continue for a couple of months but i wouldnt chase it beyond that ,, i think inflation is on the way up again and the TCB will not be able to raise rates due to the politics ..
lets see what news are coming. with good chance will get more complicated then last 6 months.
Turkish central bank is selling dollar nonstop before thursday rate cut
Well , here’s the cut , 250bps (more than 150bps market anticipates ), so far lira stable ,,, CB reserves have been steadily increasing last 6 months ,, they seem to be doing a controlled devaluation which is less than the interest paid to TL savers to keep it attractive to stay in liras ,,, so far working good , lets see what happens in 2025 ,, generally low rates are good for the economy / but needs inflation to drop too / thats the REAL callenge
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30% increase in minimum wage is for future inflation. With this limited increase Turkish inflation will drop easier in 2025.
Why
There will be devaluation in Turkey very soon. It is not investment advice
Why ? There’s no parallel price or large disparity ,, the central bank fx reserves have steadily increased , credit default swaps at low levels ,,, AND , they had plenty of oppurtunity to devalue at a steady pace so why shock the market now , create instability and high inflation ??
hey man, you dont know our present.
This will go to 40
why dollar not down, hope back 5 tl
There are lots of manipulator news on Kapalicarsi in istanbul so dollar try cant enter bullish time
down 200 bp in december. (48%) USDTRY is going to 35-35.50 year end.
Not mandatory, as if they cut to 48% it will be as they see signs of reduction in inflation.
Tcmb is selling dollar
By price action, I guess hedge fund switched to intraday longs. Do you guys see that reversal at the end of each day, followed by an instant uptick after we roll to the next day? (Or more visible on your own trading platforms than here)
Lira had enough rest time now the great Trump will shake it little bit ,
I think it will be mostly internal Turkey related ,,, dollar index soared 7% last few months while usdtry almost flat ,, so down to TCB monetary policy / inflation , Erdo mood etc.
My guess is they will try and push this until the Central Bank interest rate meeting on Thursday, then one last jump, a bit of a reversal, than sideways till new years.
Who buys Turkish lira ?? No one probably
why they stop at .29 what is the point:)
I dont know the answer but someone will reply to you in the next 3 months ,,, things have been slow in this forum since usdtry movements slowed …
Will TRY ever improve?
Yes, and it started vs. other currencies. It always help, when Erdogan is quite ;-)
Its been rather stable compared to previous years ,,, its also currently amongst the highest yields in the market ,, banks pay interest around 45% p.a. ( around 3.3% net return per month in lira after tax) with the lira falling avg 1% a month vs dollar,,, >2% net retun per MONTH in dollar terms since around March time ,, not a bad deal , obviously will not last long but has been a good fixed income play so far
my guess is usd will be 35 by end of year, only guess
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As i always say since it was 8, this is going up forever. Thank you president Erdogan for making us rich.
What you say is true. But there is a point to this. You can't go on in debt forever.
m.simsek resigned?
Not true newa
The people get the government they deserve😂
well i didnt deserve them but here i am
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here we go again
will it ever recover ????
32.20
Goodbye 32.-- USD/TRY. Your 4 month reign has ceased to be. You will be missed. 😢 In remembrance, I would like to thank you for a very profitable 4 months from my Ing Bank 45.5% APR (after taxes) savings account. Accordingly, the still existing KKM accounts thank you as they did not see any contribution to any debt and can't wrongly and unintelligently be blamed for it. I am sure those account holders thank you as well as they only suffered from the minor TL depreciation against their interest income over the 4 month span. Salute to you and fare thee well. 💖
Does anybody know what my icon is?
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