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USD/THB - US Dollar Thai Baht

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THB
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Disclaimer
37.060
-0.010(-0.03%)
Real-time Data

USD/THB Discussions

I went long at 30.00. where are his positions? he never says that...LOL
The kid below me is clearly sick,showing up only when this is down, and hiding him self when this bouncing up...LOL! This it repeats again and again!
As expected the gate for 28 open
Where are buyers ? All stop loss out?
It keep making lower low with no sign of recover many trader are trap on buy sides.
below 31 open the gate for 28
Hopefully this week the boredom consolidation between 31.00 and 31.7 might end. Still waiting for the right Shoulder to form and reach the neck line at 33.10 / 33.30 (weekly chart). Unfortunately Thailand still underwater as long as those "greedy" Army still in charge.
let's see how much THB gonna be strong !!!   Held short position and will see 31.10 / 30.80 / 30.60
Thailand and it's "Great Dictator" Prime Minister they literally digging their own pit by them self...those Algo's won't be holding for long on this... I'm still holding long.
  i'm still holding short :)
Thailand Quarterly GDP Shrinks at Record Pace in Q2.   Thailand's economy contracted 9.7% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2020, compared with market estimates of an 11.4% decline and after a revised 2.5% decrease in the prior quarter. It was the third straight quarter of contraction and the steepest on record, amid the severe impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Household consumption slumped (-7.6% vs -0.1% in Q1), with fixed investment falling for the third consecutive quarter (-2.2% vs -5.6%). In addition, net external demand contributed negatively, as exports (-22% vs -6%) dropped more than imports (-21.2% vs 3.7%). At the same time, government spending grew for the first time in three quarters (2.9% vs -0.2%). On the production side, non agricultural output collapsed (-11% vs -2.9%), due to plunges in both the industrial sector (-11.4% vs -1.3%) and services (-10.7% vs -3.6%); while agricultural activity bounced back (5.2% vs -2.9%).
Despite the weakness of USDX which I think it may reach 92.00 the THB still much weaker and I think the worse has yet, to come. I'm still Bullish on medium long term, once the greenback will bounce up (and it will) more weakness ahead for the Thai Baht. There is nothing on Marco positive for the Bath at the moment.   " The Thailand baht fell 0.06% to 31.11 against the greenback on Monday at around 02:45 AM GT after official data showed Thailand's economy collapsed 12.2% yoy in Q2, the most since Q2 1998, amid extreme uncertainties caused by COVID-19 crisis. On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 9.7%, the deepest on record. On the political front, Reuters reported that over 10,000 Thai protesters chanting "down with dictatorship" and "the country belongs to the people" rallied Sunday in Bangkok, marking the biggest anti-government demonstration since a 2014 coup."
Good opportunity can be found in Major Pairs now, correction ahead starting from end of this week / beginning of next week, for at least 3 weeks. Capitulation might have started on USDX aiming to 95.00, timing 15/20 trading days. that's my take,Good Luck!
1 Long at 31.07, SL 30.79, TP 32
I think 32.00 would be like a butter, that would be only the beginning, the fair rate of this,considering political and Macro subject is much more higher than 32.00 -IMHO-
I am watchung if dollar index could break 94 or not. If yes, maybe THB will be weak again.
Good Call on 31.10 btw ;)
30.88 / 30.90 might also be seen...I might hedge my long term longs till there, then,averaging again at 30.88ish.  -IMO-
   yeah let's see THB 30.90 (last low) if it breaks -- if yes, i will hold my shorts further.
(  https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1958371/  )
Dollar index has been in waterfall in the last 7 trading days... it might still have way to go and yet, this pair has held pretty well...I wonder when the USDX start to recover how this pair would move...  :))
  i think that THB would be strong only short period (maybe THB 31.10) and will be weak again.  Let's see.
  Could be..let's wait and see what we get :)
"The baht’s current shine as the ‘safe’ current in Asia has lost its lustre. best performing currency last year, yesterday’s announcement of the resignations of Deputy PM Somkid Jatusripitak and “the four big boys” saw it drop even further, reflecting investors’ concerns about the government’s continued economic policies. Somkid and the others tendered their resignations after mounting pressure from the ruling Palang Pracharat Party amid a leadership reshuffle, which has undoubtedly been hastened by the exodus. The resignations clear the way for the cabinet shakeup demanded by the PPRP after supporters of Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwon pushed for him to become the new party leader last month. The reshuffle of the economic team has caused jitters among foreign investors, who are concerned about continuity in the government’s policies"
In August the Right shoulder of an inverse H&S pattern (weekly chart) with a neck line at 33.3 / 33.5 might be formed... do your own math and GL!
Despite the weakness of the dollar in the last  3 / 5 days this thing still climbing... that's how weak is the THB...
Thai's latest infection from outside vip that affectt he fear spread and possible lockdown rayong and also bangkok again. and the goverment couldn't handle it well actually.
  I agree, an other opportunity for the government to blame others (foreigners) LOL They can't not expect to not have one single cases during this time. Covid19 will stay with us for long time and we need to learn how to live with it like other nations are doing. If Thailand wants to keep their primate of lowest cases reported get ready for Thailand to become the "The New North Korea". lol
Consumer prices in Thailand declined by 1.57 percent from a year earlier in June 2020, following a 3.44 percent fall in May and compared to market expectations of a 2.80 percent drop. Prices fell at a slower pace following the end of a government utilities subsidy to ease the impact of the coronavirus.The core CPI index, which strips out food and energy prices, dipped 0.05 percent from a year earlier, the first drop in more than a decade. For 2020, the commerce ministry expects the headline CPI to fall between 0.7 percent to 1.5 percent. I hope this can help your analysis..
If 31.2 is well broken this is heading to 31.6..
Wow!!!  You know a lot about Thailand.
  I used to live there for 10 years before the pandemic... I hope all this mess ends soon,so, I can come back there. By the way all those info are available to everyone on internet :)
"-Thailand Industrial Output Falls the Most Since 2011-  Industrial production in Thailand plunged 23.19 percent year-on-year in May 2020, after a revised 18.2 percent fall a month earlier. This was the 13th straight month of decline in industrial output and the steepest since November 2011, due to the severe impact caused by the coronavirus outbreak, with production falling the most for cars, petroleum, and air conditioners. Meantime, capacity utilization rose to 52.84 percent in May from April's revised 51.27 percent"
there is nothing good on the THB side...
"The president of the Thai Tourism Industry Council says confidence among Thailand’s tourism business operators fell to the lowest level in a decade during the second quarter this year, with about 2.6 million workers already unemployed and about another 100,000 expected to be laid off in Q3 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The gloomy forecast is the result of a survey of 770 tourism business operators between May 10 – 25. He acknowledged that the sector has been hard hit by government lockdown measures enacted to stem the spread of the contagion, the closure of many business and leisure activities. The impacts caused domestic tourism to contract by about 99%, “because all tourist destinations were closed and there are no foreign tourists at all”. Although the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand’s ban on international arrivals was officially lifted today, foreign tourists are still effectively prohibited."
"Unless Thailand opens its borders to allow foreign tourists to enter the country again the future will be even bleaker, because most of the sector’s businesses have no cash flow and no access to funding.”
Hello Jack. What's your opinion on the direction of USD/THB in Third quarter? Would be nice if you would like to share your idea. Thanks
Technical- on mid/long term USDTHB are in a 12 years trading range (boundaries 30.00ish / 36.00ish, weekly / monthly chart). tested for the 4th times 30.00ish level on Dec 2019 then rallied strongly till 33.00 testing Nov 2018 high,then,in the last 7 weeks pulled back deeply till 31.00 levels which is also a bear trend line test from Dec. high 2016.  "I think" we would see again 33.00 at least before Oct. / Nov. at that point a possible right shoulder of an inverse H&S pattern might be formed (weekly chart)... A fair rate of this (in my opinion) would be 34.5 / 35.5ish, but that's my  long term view spring 2021. Anyway I also have been wrong before and this is only my opinion,trade on your own risk. Good Luck. :)
 . Many thanks Jack.
Your analysis is very good. No one sure but your analysis hit hte point
"The Bank of Thailand left its key policy rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent on June 24th 2020, making a pause on the policy tightening trajectory after three rate cuts so far this year. The decision came in line with market expectations. The central bank lowered its 2020 forecasts: the GDP is seen shrinking 8.1 percent compared to a 5.3 percent drop projected in March and the inflation is seen falling to -1.7 percent (-1 percent in March)".  (  https://www.bot.or.th/English/PressandSpeeches/Press/2020/Pages/n3463.aspx  )
THB get stronger and stronger may be some unknown events is coming out.
  it's "common" according to what?
It’s according to US index. THB graph is getting strronger very fast but also the other countries in this region. Its not just THB thats why i said that its usual thing
  USDX is a basket of six currency which are included: EUR which is weighted almost 60%,JPY 14% , GBP 12%, CAD 10% ,SEK 4% and CHF 4%. There is no THB on USD index,you can only see a correlation but i think is not a correct way to interpret the THB movement ...Good Luck anyway
"Thailand's trade surplus jumped to USD 2.69 billion in May 2020 from USD 0.33 billion in the same month the prior year and compared with market estimates of a USD 2.74 billion surplus. This marked the fourth straight month of trade surplus, as exports tumbled 22.5 percent year-on-year, while imports plunged 34.41 percent."  "Exports from Thailand slumped 22.5 percent year-on-year in May 2020, compared with market expectations of a 6.4 percent fall and after a 2.12 percent gain in April. This was the steepest decline in overseas sales in over ten years, due to the severe impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with shipments falling for cars and computers." and yet the baht strengthening?? LOL Thailand is literally digging it's pit by them self now...
USD/THB go down to 30.5 by UOB
I do agree and even stronger
  RIP Thailand and thai people in that case...
The reason behind is increasing potential bad debt.
BOT(Thailand FED), mentionned urgent guard up on saturday that all banks will pay no divident and no share buy back.
 Yes, it was the first place i checked,couldn't find much about it... I think the "monetary policy report" is what investors are closely watching. BTW i think the strength of the baht is for the decision of Finance Ministry to introduce bonds to encourage low-income earners to save money in risk-free assets which,"I think", it's already priced-in.
 are you now on the stronger or weaker expecting  side?
I'm buying USD against Baht, but I honestly being in a drawdown for roughly a month,I have 4 long(s). My lowest is at 31.14 and my break even rate is at 31.7. I'm Bullish and I might be a Stubborn Bull, but economy in Thay is really really bad,and a strong baht wouldn't help its country. IMHO it is only a matter of this would bounce back up and breaks important levels. That's my personal take anyway.
Let's see if this week we can hit 31.6,i'm still in draw down at the moment,with only my lowest long in green at 31.14, my break even it's at 31.7 though.
unfortunately we still have to wait Man,Geezzz...
 I will keep quiet from this point. Sth does not like us when we both show up, it will always decline, hahaha.
  LOL, perseverance will succeed,ahaha :D
(  https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/79481-world-bank-sees-east-asia-and-pacific-growth-fall-to-0-5-in-2020.html  )
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