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US Coffee C Futures - May 23 (KCK3)

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177.53 -2.77    -1.54%
13:30:05 - Closed. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
Unit:  1 Pound
  • Prev. Close: 177.53
  • Open: 179.05
  • Day's Range: 176.73 - 181.15
US Coffee C 177.53 -2.77 -1.54%

US Coffee C Futures Analysis

 
The latest analysis and reports about the US Coffee C Futures.
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 3 hours ago
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Here we go... The Russian cargo ship Swem with 20 thousand tons of fertilizers was detained in the Finnish port of Kotka due to sanctions. Their value is estimated at €12 million.
MGom MGom
MGom 7 hours ago
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ICE Stocks -297 bags, no grading today. Holiday ?
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 3 hours ago
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And cecafe has semi holidays too?
MGom MGom
MGom 7 hours ago
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FED +0.25% increases the interest rate. Storage becomes more expensive, in this case the tendency is to consume the stock and maintain the reduction of import imports.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 6 hours ago
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0,25% was expected, yet USD is going down together with bond yields.
MGom MGom
MGom 6 hours ago
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the yield curve is inverted, increasing the possibility of recession.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 6 hours ago
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See on the chart how much yields have collapsed in recent days.
coffee arabica
coffee arabica 10 hours ago
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noone cares, interest rates will break all the capitalism system. Welcome to china socialism
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago
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It's not happening for the first time :)... still surviving...
MGom MGom
MGom 7 hours ago
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2001, 2002 ...
Mercury KG
Mercury KG 5 hours ago
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China Socialism? Ever been there? I think more California Socialism.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 11 hours ago
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2000 to 2019 US import grew from roughly 23.5mb to 31mb (all forms), net import (import - re-export) roughly grew from 21mb to 28mb. It's about 33% growth in 20 years, 1.65% per year. This number fits the range, ICO projected globally per year until 2030. If to consider 2022 consumption of 170mb -> 1.5% annual growth is roughly 2.5mb and within 3 years -> 7.5mb. Roughly, global production for 2020 record year was projected 175mb and for pre-record (but record for OFF cycle in Brazil) 2019 - 165mb. To keep global stocks to usage ratio in shape, production should follow lead more or less.
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 11 hours ago
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170mb annualy -> 14mb/month. Very healthy stocks to usage ratio is 3 months (42mb), minimum - 2 months (28mb). Everything below 2 motnhs - dangerous.
MGom MGom
MGom 12 hours ago
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Fed today, +0.25% upside expectations.
Hinh Nguyen
Hinh Nguyen 12 hours ago
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How about KC expectation today?
Herb Spengler
Herb Spengler 12 hours ago
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No they already announced, that they will pause the hikes in interest rates today
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 11 hours ago
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Who where when?
MGom MGom
MGom 11 hours ago
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By TA, If bulls do not recover the 190 levels in the short term, it could lose the current hold in the medium term, especially if we miss the 170/171 level.
Eivind Strom
Eivind Strom 17 hours ago
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Just out of curiosity, will there be an El Nino year this year? And since this should have a favorable influence on coffee production over the following two years, shouldn't this have a negative impact on coffee pricing through 2024? There hasn't been much written about how big of an impact a tripling la lina has had on coffee costs over the previous three years.
Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria 16 hours ago
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The chances are 53% of El Ninho's return in June, the warming of ocean waters brings more rain to the southern region of Brazil, in a way the phenomenon can favor agriculture but the problem is that we will be in the harvest phase at this time where excessive and prolonged rains bring great damage to the fruits and the coffee tree (the time when the plants go into dormancy and need a little stress to produce the following year).
Eivind Strom
Eivind Strom 15 hours ago
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Thanks!
MGom MGom
MGom Mar 21, 2023 4:56PM ET
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CECAFE +209k bags today of new Certs, back to a good pace.
MGom MGom
MGom Mar 21, 2023 4:56PM ET
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ICE Stocks no grading today.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 21, 2023 4:56PM ET
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Yes, they started to buy again? :)
MGom MGom
MGom 15 hours ago
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or producers are selling ?
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 12 hours ago
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Every transaction needs both sides. A seller will not sell without a buyer. Therefore, there are buyers. A while ago, a small export was bearish, now a larger export is also bearish. What can be bullish? I'm a little confused! ;)
MGom MGom
MGom 11 hours ago
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Every theory has its exceptions, in the current case the demand is REDUCING the buying interest, but the current reduction does not mean that the interest is null.
Oscar Correa
Oscar Correa Mar 21, 2023 1:17PM ET
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ShortDude. Can you get accurate information about the historical MoM volume traded and "delivered" through ICE over the last 10 years.
Oscar Correa
Oscar Correa Mar 21, 2023 1:17PM ET
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And if possible, the data on breaches of contracts.
ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 21, 2023 1:17PM ET
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I do not have such data, maybe MGom?
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2023 9:43AM ET
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Fun Facts/Evaluations. But as MGom fairly stated, based on IF :) !!!. Nevertheless, for 2018 and 2020 CONAB and USDA stated roughly same AR numbers - somehow they came to a consensus (but not for R :)). As 2020 was later :), I'll focus on it. CONAB 2020: AR - 1515k ha, 48.8mb, 32.18b/ha; R - 369k ha (total 400k), 14.3mb, 38.8b/ha. USDA 2020: harvested A+R - 2100k ha; AR - 49.7bm, R - 20.2mb, A+R => 33.3b/ha. Reasonably, USDA should show higher yield for AR or at least no lower. 49.7mb : 32.5b/ha = 1529k ha. Then R area 2100 - 1529 = 571k ha and 20.2mb : 571k ha = 35.4b/ha. What is: 1) R yield of USDA 35.4 < of CONAB 38.8; 2) 571 - 369 = 202k ha of hidden R; 3) 571 - 400 (total R) = 171k ha of hidden R. Looks a bit strange... :) If to take AR yield 33.5 b/ha: 49.7mb : 33.5b/ha = 1484k ha, --> 2100 - 1484 = 616k ha for R and 20.2mb : 616k ha = 32.8b/ha vs 38.8b/ha of CONAB. And 616 - 369 = 247k ha, 616 - 400(total R) = 216k ha - of hidden R production, CONAB's mistake is 247/369 or 216/369 -> 59% - 67%. Most simple explanation would be that USDA adds young trees production but while new trees enter park, old trees leave it and loosing yiled, etc. Thus, if to assume that new trees are balanced by old trees, it looks strange... :)
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2023 9:43AM ET
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If 2022 would be record 49.7mb AR, then 2023 would be 42mb AR. 42mb : 1530k ha = 27.5b/ha OFF cycle AR yield. 1 in 100 years drought has lasting effects, proven fact. Frost affected seriously about 200k ha, let's say 35% lost for production in 2022, 2023. 35% of 200k ha ->70k ha x 27.5b/ha = 1.925mb to deduct. Drought post effect on yield - 2% :) of 42mb = 840k b, expensive ferts + too much rain = 3% -> 1.26mb, in total roughly 4mb. 42mb - 4mb = 38mb AR (CONAB 1st eval. 37.4mb). 3% for ferts and rains can become 5 -7 % easy...
Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2023 9:43AM ET
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All doesn't mean much until Brazil is able to export about 40mb. We'll see ... :)
MGom MGom
MGom Mar 21, 2023 9:43AM ET
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The line of reasoning and calculations may be correct, but we need to wait for the next USDA report in Jun23.
 
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