US Coffee C Futures - Dec 23 (KCZ3)

Viriato, take a break sometime from reading about the terrible effects of ElNino. Look at the weather forecast for 2 weeks ahead. See how much rain! Imagine how beautiful the healthy trees full of flowers will look. And how much coffee they will bring us.

looks like will go up again

Funds bought the drought and will now sell the rain, as has been the case for decades, with some exceptions.

Away from the price movement in a close future, there is interesting (or it seems to be :)) point re super record crop potential in Brazil at prices below 140 or so... For 2018 and 2020 record crops ( 2020, adjusted to 2018 basis was not a record already) USDA and CONAB figures somehow came very close to each other and the explanation for that surprising fact can be the only one: very cooperative weather created very uniform flowering all other factors considering being equal :). Then ongoing drought and frost affected yield, etc, numbers went sideways :). As USDA shows within last many years :), the magic behind great rise in production (A) was higher and higher density per ha. Higher density pattern is not new and very well absorbed by agro industry for years as higher yielding strategy, but it comes at a price: this approach is much more costly and much more complicated. It requires more ferts/fungicides/etc per sq. unit to support higher production what is obvious, but what is not that obvious for many, is that when something goes wrong and producer can't or doesn't see practical :) to afford required level of input, production falls in not linear manner - quite harder. The reason is that high density pattern transforms the soil faster and for the trees to be in a normal average health (not saying about high productivity even) it requires no less input of certain things no matter what. Otherwise the trees functioning changes and this includes not only average production but overall tree health as well. The one who decided to go with with such a pattern will need to support required level to matter what or else... :). Now, if to believe open data of 2017/18 or so, in Brazil in A growing about 50-60% are still small farms - about 10ha or less... I have no idea if this info is 100%, 85%, 75%, etc truth :) but as it is cited by many sources, it seems reasonable to assume that about 50% of growers are still small farms. We know what small farmers do when the price for the product is not good - they cut on expenses, which are inputs: ferts and other chemicals. Mainly, because they have nothing else to cut on :). In 2016-18 there was a consideration that price of 1.20$ for small farmers was loosing proposition. Assuming all increases up to now, it seems correct to assume that now this border line is about 1.40$ or so... What small farmers will do if the price will fall to 1.40 or lower ? They'll cut. What this would mean for production? It would mean that to provide the record the second half of producers will need to cover their shortfall at lower price... Nobody knows if they'll be able or not but a it shows that super record may be not an easy task within such circumstances. :)

Cot long

going deep.. if ur caught with ur long pants down, you only have yourself to blame..

Rains are coming next week after Wednesday.

Although KC doesn't take it seriously :), El Niño continues to intensify no matter what :). Key monitoring region called Nino 3.4 in Central Pacific has been 1.57C above average within last month. Threshold is 1.5C - what is higher considered a strong one (not the Super one possibly yet :)). In Eastern Pacific , Nino 1+2 region about 3C above average... Current El Niño is already inline with previous strong Ninos :). Remaining months are Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, March... Previous ones: 1982/3, 1997, 2015...

what usualy happens with coffee on friday ? surpriseee :D

It seems that Cecafe is also losing pace 🤔