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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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224.75
-2.90(-1.27%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Most reasonable explanations of good export numbers is ... big stocks, accumulated within 2018,19,20 crop years, based on low prices, cheap inputs, good weather. The view at 63mb crop for 2022 crop (average among various) would be about 23mb of R + 40mb of A. Consumption in Brazil is about 23mb and consists of R for about 60%. Thus, it's gonna be 13.8mb of R and 9.2mb of A, what brings the balance to 30.8 of A and 9.2mb of R available for export, not counting stocks, what gives 40mb export without a problem, but adds zero to stocks.
It is possible to make a crop tour and to define bean formation, etc but stocks are always mystery. There is no instrument to get its number even with +/-20% rate.
But if to consider that since now the weather will be always cooperative in all major origins, then down it's gonna go captain... :) The only problem is that current climatic cycle doesn't support such a thesis.
everyone just looks at usda and ice stocks because that's what reported... but the only real situation that matters is the stocks in Santos and around santos.. the cartel keeps good stocks
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