Investing.com - Financial Markets Worldwide
Get 40% Off
Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
232.15
+1.05(+0.45%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

It seems that the market is not satisfied with the size of the pending queue. Mgom you have to try harder.
Fev is coming ....
For the potential spike dreamers ! :) :) :) This El Nino was considered a strong El Nino, and by some w-guys, being close to 2015-16. Now it is fading, the question is what is next ? Found interesting view online: multiyear (double dip :)) Ninas happened after strong Ninos in a past: La Nina 73-76 after El Nino 72-73, La Nina 83-85 after El Nino 82-83, La Nina 98 - 01 after El Nino 97-98, 16 - 18 after El Nino 15-16. Thus, if pattern will repeat itself somehow, expected La Nina may last 24 - 26... It is funny, but those longer Las Ninas (their ends) marked interesting spots on monthly chart :) :) :). Also interesting, 24-25 should mark the peak of current solar cycle 25, after what solar activity will start slowing down and GSM cycle should start revealing its cooling intention :) :) :). Also interesting, that 2020/21 historical drought and frost happened within longer (by NOAA triple deep) La Nina. Unlikely triple dip La Nina may repeat itself within so short period of time, but strong double dip Ninita wouldn't be impossible assuming previous achievements :). Nobody knows W until it happened, but most likely :) all the real big specs are very well aware of a such possibility :).
If the weather will produce a hit, most damaging would be not 25 but 26 ON crop as it would be viewed as 100mb :) bumper builder or so... And among all the farms high density farms would suffer more (if in the covered area) and with possibly longer consequences... That's all paper guessing for now of course :) :) :) ...
Without any relation to today's action.
ShortDude, It seems that ICE's problems are beginning to be alleviated, Pending Bags with 81,998 bags
Lets see what happens with these new numbers
i dont get it, there are 8.290 new bags or 81.998 new bags?
A total of 81,998 bags are in the queue, with 8,290 bags added to the queue yesterday.
What’s the forecast for today
Until year end buy the dips
Red friday now green friday
They take the bags faster than the new ones appear. This way the stock will definitely not be rebuilt!
You went to complain to me... I ordered it to be released !
it is all about spread and spec found want kill the traders again. this have nothing to do about coffee it is all about money money
Granted, salaries are terribly low, but I do not see buyers contributing. They will continue hoping on cheap ( I mean mechanized, thus cheap). Not sustainable for the small countries, young people do not want to work, and the older ones have no choice. Terrible. coffee from Brasil and Viertnam
Vietnam *
Mercurio, in Brazil most of the properties are family farming, and smaller than 6 hectares.
-6
your wish but reality will be +6
During the night market did the same calculations as Viriato. Summary is there will be not enough coffee 😱
The fact that stocks fell does not mean at all that world stayed without coffee :), but YOY 43% decrease unlikely may be viewed as bearish. Besides, narration wise, it's one more ball in the net. As GCA stopped publishing, and as EU is biggest consumer, quite some people would do quick projections towards GCA stocks getting smaller as well. Not for 40% necessarily, but for 20% as example, etc. Not necessarily being correct, at the same time it would be most logical :) conclusion as JCA stocks also have been reported low... Thus, if 24 crop will disappoint, it will disappoint on the basis of low stocks at destinations and many origins as well. Not a good combination for instant low prices... All may change of course, but next big bang will be USDA annual in June - still 4 months to go... and potential frost season...
If to consider that trees recovered fully (as many keep saying), and to project A ON 2024 being 48mb (just example !!!), then 2025 OFF crop will look more like 44mb for A, assuming previous historical trend (for 50mb it would be 45mb). No breakthrough... And if to believe in annual 3mb organic :) growth in consumption, then in absence of other origins being able to provide bigger crops, 4-5mb more of Brazilian A in fact, have to be lowered by those 3mb of annual growth in macro equation... (for A).
Last USDA view (Dec 2023) at production - consumption for 23/24 was roughly 170mb vs 170mb (171.4 vs 169.5). It makes the narration easy: disappointing crop (IF !!!) vs stable :) :) :) consumption would mean higher prices if anything... USDA also revised 22/23 global production for 5.5mb (!!!) to make it 164.5mb and admitted higher than anticipated consumption in EU (what resulted in lower stocks). In Dec 2022 report USDA viewed 22/23 production rebounded 6.6mb to 172.8mb... :) USDA doesn't hesitate to make real revisions BOTH sides - it is important to remember... Global consumption in 22/23 in the same report was projected as roughly 168mb with the largest gain in EU, USA and ... Brazil. In Dec 2023 report USDA left 22/23 consumption without change and increased 23/24 consumption for 1.5mb to make 169.5mb - that confirms that even in USDA's view the trend in global consumption is UP.
So far in 2024, abt. 76k bags were graded by ICE. Roughly 50% failed.
If to combine last ECF of 7.3mb + would be/may be of GCA 5.7mb :) + (Japan+ICE) may be :) 3mb, the figure at destinations looks like 16mb. If to consider global stock being about 26mb and consumption being 169.5mb (USDA), stocks to use ratio probably would be the lowest in 20 years or more...
You are very clever
Pending Bags up again ... ShortDude
Yes. It can definitely tame the bulls a bit ;)
This year our coffee trees will provide one off the worst harvest in ten years
I am guessing Nicaragua
Colombia
Juan Eduardo, this corresponds with what Oscar was saying previously... What would be the main problem in your opinion ?
ECF again down despite huge export numbers. This is bullish.
not in mu region or matas de minas, we are having too much rain
Bruno, do you see it as a supportive factor or not so in relation to 2024 crop ?
How would you see your coming crop vs 18 and 20 ? Bigger or smaller ?
ICE stock situation is very important for KC price, we can clearly see that during last days.
After CONAB's 58mb, most players view coming USDA's as 68 - 70mb. Projecting 23 domestic and 44 export onto 24/25 and assuming ending 23/24 stocks as 2.7mb, the ending stocks for 24/25 will look like: 68mb -- 3.7mb, 70mb - 5.7mb. And if to consider 3mb consumption growth for 24/25 (ICO's 1.75%) , global ending stocks should get smaller for 3mb, assuming that other origins will do OK... Weather may get better or worse and that will affect the numbers, etc. But even 70mb hardly can be viewed as super bearish factor. For the big equation, it doesn't matter that much where the stocks really are: US, EU, Brazil... Because it's either Brazil will have almost zero paper :) :) :) ending stocks or EU stocks will not get bigger :) ...
Also, there is kinda :) question re consumption growth for 23/24. In its Dec 2023 report, USDA revised down for MY 22/23 EU stocks for 3.3mb due to stronger-than-anticipated consumption. Would it mean that some growth happened within 23/24 ? If to assume that it was some 1 - 2mb growth, then those bags will also matter...
Colombian production was roughly flat from MY14/15 to 20/21, then it dropped and for MY23/24 it is expected to reach 11.6mb (22/23 was revised to 10.7mb). But 1 - 2mb of fluctuation of Colombian production doesn't have the significance it had in a past. As a % in a global equation and assuming 3mb annual growth, it is not visible. Now it is all about Brazil... Brazil can't disappoint in this situation...
Any bulls interested in physical coffee? Nics SHG at +5?
If you have whstapp let me know here
ICE bearish today.
Pending bags up again too.
+20.5k new bags
Lovely day...
90% of bags failed today's grading at ICE...
And almost all failed coffee is from brazil
No shortage of buyers for those failed grading bags…
Closed green again
218
Spreads are so up today. ICE stocks supposed to be not meaningful 😉
And pushes KC price higher as being long pays good money at every FND.
This well known and adopted way is not working anymore. I guess there are other ways. We are witnessing changes... different ways of trading and also different countries have started to purchase with other currencies not just USD. This tells us that goods doesn't need to go through wall street but can find other routes. I am for a good coffee price since it will help the labourers but using ice as reference...nope. it's not working that way anymore.
Wall Street has nothing to do with ICE if you mean cartels, etc - ICE is a smoothing mechanism in fact :). Goods always find some routes, the main question always was and is how stable the partner is to deliver what and when it was promised upon agreed price. For the price reference you may use ex-warehouses prices at destinations or at origins in local currencies, though second way would require conversion and currency hedging if the quantities are big enough...
MGom I suppose that even in Shanghai stocks are low 😉
Why Shanghai? China has less than 5 million bags.
I've seen today in the news that global containers rate increased/about to do it for roughly 20% on Red Sea Conflict. In a simple approach, it doesn't add to bearish side... :)
Not big news channels - rather some news comments though...
nice moove booked profits
Closed green, opened green; is that good thing ?
...
...
Install Our App
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.