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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
232.43
-7.92(-3.30%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Strong coffee PA despite DXY. Feels bullish.
Exports Brazil 03/24 4.3 mi bags, +18% m/m and +38% y/y, really no coffe in Brazil
Why is market up? Will repeat 97?
It will tepeat 1997? May was 2.63
Bruno, tight Robusta offer is pulling Arabica. First time in history, robust surpasses 1000 reais, new record this week.
World coffee consumption recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags in the year 2022/23. Said the ICO, “Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown.”
220 till friday, O.I options are big and runs off friday
Position correction: 200 or 192
touch of 194 shall be enough
Hello, coffee just recently caught my attention. It's just 10% higher than usual. What can be expected in the following week?
h t t p s: // encurtador. com. br / w D S 7 9
Send $1,000,000 and I will provide the answer.
🤣
There were some funny recent news: import from Brazil to Indonesia and Vietnam are really growing as domestic consumption in those countries is really growing. Neumann Kaffee Gruppe is betting on that fact and opens ... import :) :) :) office in Indonesia as Neumann expects the domestic demand to become higher than Indonesia's crop will be able to cover. (Indonesia yield is traditionally low in relation to those in Brazil and Vietnam, Indonesia's main focus is on Robusta currently...)
High temps were/are almost everywhere...
Some w-guys promise :) that developing (and fast) La Nina is gonna be strong and transition is gonna happen faster than usually (nobody knows until happened). Found a funny map showing how it affects Brazil: while Triangulo looks good, SDM in theory :) may get colder and drier weather. Last drought of 2020 happened during La Nina...
Very good posts Viriato!! So outstanding to see someone writing serious!
Do you guys think we're going to have a black Monday like in 1997
The answer is: of course.
You mean 1987.
Yes
After a long time, Bulls are back in control
Fly baby fly
seems ready for another 15 next week..
Because demand is and never was an issue.
Roasters here, where are they now (changing Robusta for Arabica:)? Only for specialty coffees from the years 21 to 30 there will be an increase from R$53 billion to R$150 billion.
According to Brainy Insights, which sees an increase in domestic consumption, everything Viriato has been talking about for a long time here.
Bull run as coccoa did
maybe local turn around like 10usd
Im agree, now the market its overbougth
Today was impressive day. Maks would be satisfied :) :) :).
4 times of A low of 2020 would be roughly 360, 4 times of 2019 low - roughly 340...
Thousands of temp records are broken in more than 50 countries in every continent (besides Antarctica :) may be)... And it keeps going... La Nina is expected in August/Sept...
Referring to Rodrigo's comment on historical R price in ES: R made its low around 2300 (at good support level:)) in Oct 2023 - post harvest ! , after what and until now it didn't look back on monthly...
"Conilon coffee in ES surpasses R$1,000 per bag for the first time in history"
ok it started.. the cacao fanbois are here... I posted about this a week ago.. but I think cacao fanbois will be exit liquidity... 220 then back to earth
Why so rude?
I said it's difficult for me to see it above 220... nothing structural is wrong with Arabica. could they drive it above 220? possibly. but it is a much bigger market than cacao or orange juice.. I see market range bound 170 to 220 until after US elections (mid 2025)... so when I said back to earth, meant back to 170 180..
ce te fute pe tine grija domnule..
Effect of report Hedge Point yestarday.
"The European Coffee Federation's recent report highlights a notable drop in coffee stocks to 6.70M scs, a substantial reduction of 4.65M scs from the previous year."
What Hedge Point report stated ?
May not mean much, but on weekly stoch found support at the level where it has found support in april 2021 - support at this level is not typical for stoch on weekly. In 2021 after finding support at his level (for stoch), the price advanced for 140 points: from 120 to 260 on frost, but initial move was roughly 40 points (120 - 160). 40 points from 180 would mark 220. We'll see if it'ls gonna happen this time :) and if Sam is gonna be right this time. :)
Short time?
Suddenly that super harvest is no longer a good harvest? About to start the harvest and they say (in the news) that fear is the offering.
Rich Asplund - Barchart - 1 hour ago Coffee prices this morning are sharply higher, with Arabica recording a 4-week high and Robusta recording a new record high. Coffee prices are supported from Monday on concerns that recent heavy rains in Brazil's coffee-growing regions may have damaged coffee crops. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received 75.4 mm of rain last week, or 335% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is responsible for around 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. Tight supply of Robusta coffee from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee beans, is a major factor driving up prices. , Vietnam's agriculture department last Tuesday projected that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 harvest could fall -20% to 1,472 MTM, the lowest harvest in four years, due to drought. Furthermore, the Vietnam Coffee Association said Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023/24 could fall -20% y/y to 1.336 million. Furthermore, Marex Group Plc forecasts a global Robusta coffee deficit in 2024/25 of -2.7 million bags due to reduced production in Vietnam. A recovery in Vietnam's coffee exports is bearish for Robusta prices. Today, Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture reported that Vietnam's coffee exports in the first quarter increased +8.3% year on year to 599,000 MT. In a pessimistic move, Rabobank on March 14 predicted a coffee surplus of 4.5 million bags for the next 2024-25 marketing year, a sharp increase from the 500,000 bag surplus projected for 2023-24. On the optimistic side, Rabobank cut its production forecast for 2023-24 by 3.9 million bags to 171.1 million bags, mainly due to downward revisions to production estimates for Indonesia and Honduras.
Rich Asplund - Barchart - 1 hour ago Coffee prices this morning are sharply higher, with Arabica recording a 4-week high and Robusta recording a new record high. Coffee prices are supported from Monday on concerns that recent heavy rains in Brazil's coffee-growing regions may have damaged coffee crops. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received 75.4 mm of rain last week, or 335% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is responsible for around 30% of Brazil's arabica crop. Tight supply of Robusta coffee from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee beans, is a major factor driving up prices. , Vietnam's agriculture department last Tuesday projected that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 harvest could fall -20% to 1,472 MTM, the lowest harvest in four years, due to drought. Furthermore, the Vietnam Coffee Association said Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023/24 could fall -20% y/y to 1.336 million. Furthermore, Marex Group Plc forecasts a global Robusta coffee deficit in 2024/25 of -2.7 million bags due to reduced production in Vietnam. A recovery in Vietnam's coffee exports is bearish for Robusta prices. Today, Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture reported that Vietnam's coffee exports in the first quarter increased +8.3% year on year to 599,000 MT. In a pessimistic move, Rabobank on March 14 predicted a coffee surplus of 4.5 million bags for the next 2024-25 marketing year, a sharp increase from the 500,000 bag surplus projected for 2023-24. On the optimistic side, Rabobank cut its production forecast for 2023-24 by 3.9 million bags to 171.1 million bags, mainly due to downward revisions to production estimates for Indonesia and Honduras.
big sell coming this week,added big short
First of April
But but ICE stocks are rising! 😁
Heat wave continue in Asia, including Indonesia and Vietnam. R marked 3500 recently, and A/R (ICE) ratio is as low as it was in 2008: R price is about 85% of A price. If R price will not drop in a sure manner, current ratio should continue support A prices as blends wise it seems to be very reasonable. :) :) :) (May not mean much :), but 2009 marked important low for A :))
In the south of Minas Gerais, from now on, excess rainfall is synonymous with loss of quality.
Too much rain is not good either :) .
Whatever the crop is gonna be - anomalies are everywhere... The scale of it is not normal - not normal means higher potential risk. Cocoa marked 10k. Cocoa is not coffee and 10k is not supply-demand true ratio either. Why it hasn't crashed yet ? Because the catalyst is still in place - high temp around. Brazil for A is the same as Ivory Coast+Ghana for cocoa...
Happy Easter Holidays to all! Terrific success in your endeavours...
Dude, the pending bags are back up today
Let me guess. About 10k Will be rejected 😂😂😂
but 400 thousand bags were approved in 2024 and probably at least +35 thousand of those pending will be added to current stocks.
And spreads are down from 9USD in an peak till 0,7 now, still backwardation but small. Less bullish. Everything correct.
they are going to try to pull a cacao and squeeze the market... im not sure it will work or not. I personally don't see this market beyond 220 for a long time
Welcome back Sam 👍
😘😘
<3
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