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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
237.65
+6.55(+2.83%)
Real-time Data

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Today end with big green
Will end red
Today green only
friday again .. will it hold ?
ICE stocks slightly down...
Please guid
Wait 165
Can buy now?
CONAB 58.082 Mi bags, +5,5% y/y.
Annual export of all types in 2022 reached 39.41mb, A - 34.1mb, R - 1.51mb. In 2023 total export reached 39.25mb, A - 30.82mb, R - 4.71mb. Total annual export numbers are roughly the same ones.
2023 produced 44.7mb of A in USDA terms - record for OFF cycle crop. Total crop of 66.4mb was a record crop for OFF cycle. 2024 total A+R crop is expected (in USDA terms) as a repetition of record 70mb or a bit more. R 2023 crop was close to the previous record. Oct - Dec total export was a high figure and no disaster was pronounced for 2023... But the price didn't break 140 level still... :) :) :) and ICE is still very low...
And very good rains promised for TRNG and SDM.
time to buy again
damn :D looks dangerous now
i am confused where it wants go but now looks more it want to go to 171 lets see how it close
175
Coffee market is not so stable... why???
Weather and situation in the world is unstable while market is tight.
"Coffee prices this morning are sharply higher, with March robusta posting a contract high and nearest-futures (RBF24) posting an all-time high. Scant robusta coffee supplies have sparked fund buying of robusta coffee futures. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories last Friday fell to a record low of 3.311 lots. Also, robusta coffee supplies are expected to tighten further in the cash market as Vietnam's coffee farmers hoard supplies in anticipation of even higher prices. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee beans."
JCA Stocks Nov 2023 - 2.37 mm bags ( -4.7% m/m | -12.3% y/y)
Rodrigo, I just found (Victor M. Ponce, 1995): from 1645 to 1710 (previous GSM) following droughts were documented somehow in NE Brazil (including part of MG but !!! without !!! Triangulo and SDM): 1645, 1652, 1692, 1710-11. If to assume that current GSM started 2019/20, then 2026/27 may be the significant drought year or so. Somehow it correlates with Brazilian study, projecting real droughts till 2080(? :)) for MG and with the time when the cooling should really start appearing... Nobody knows at this point, but drought is absence/limited precipitation within significant period of time but not necessarily high temperatures. :) (1973, 1983, 1993, 2003, 2013 at the monthly chart kinda give a clue that 2023 may be followed up in same manner :)).
From Victor Ponce study: In the 20th century, the documented drought periods since 1970 to 1995 (Victor's study date) were: 1970, 1979-83, and 1990-93, with some spatial variations in coverage within the drought polygon. Triangulo and SDM are not !!! in the drought polygon ! But nevertheless those dates marked important lows for KC. :)
2002 - 2003, 2010, 2013 have been also considered drought years for drought polygon (somehow :)) - look good at the chart as well... Nobody knows but 2021 - 2023 could be the spot :). Not an agitation to do anything - just my very personal excitement !!!
Cecafe shows Dec export as of 4.116mb with A being 3.255mb, vs 3.278mb in Nov and vs 2.834mb in Dec 2022. Oct+Nov+Dec 2023 total export reached roughly 12.94mb and A export reached 9.981mb vs 9.356mb in Oct-Dec of 2022.
Sep-Dec 2022 total A export was 12.365mb vs 12.4mb in Sep-Dec 2023 :) :) :).
A in June - Dec 2023 reached 19.326mb vs 19.487mb in June-Dec 2022.
Red
Yes, down 180.20 is my target
Admin is removing my text where I put a citation that speculative sector is in possesion of over 7.4 million bags. This tells us that everything is speculating lately far from reality.
Weather not very supportive during next 15 days. Now heat wave and then rains good below average.
the Non-Commercial Speculative increased their net long position by 11.63% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 9th January 2024: to register a new net longs of 25,179 lots = 7,138,135 bags.
Weather predictions for the South of Minas region in Brazil call for a good volume of rain during this last half of January: https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/informativo-meteorológico-n-2-2024 (translate it using Google)
In the meantime:the Non-Commercial Speculative increased their net long position by 11.63% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 9th January 2024: to register a new net long position of 25,179 lots, which is the equivalent of 7,138,135 bags.
Alguien le interesado en comorar cafe de nicaragua?
Huge profit.... indeed!
Happy Red Friday!
Huge as expected
IBGE, 58,9 Mi bags 24/25, +3,3% y/y.
For A record would be over 50mb :). IBGE ignored 2023 high temperatures, etc :) :) :) . Conab is next to make a spell :)...
Shorty where is your proof?
66m7 mi scs S&M
Red Sea influence ? :)
H&S 1h, entry 185.70; SL187.70; TP 174.60 🍀
for this platform ; entry 186.20; sl 188.2 ; tp 175.0
New bags arrived to ICE. Rains forecasted. Maybe some price weakness ahead...
If somehow :) Cecafe will manage to achieve about 4.3mb export in Dec 2023, Oct, Nov, Dec combined would show roughly 13mb vs roughly 26mb exported within Jan - Sep 2023 (9 months), 13mb (3m) vs 8.7mb (3m, av) and vs roughly 10.5mb for Oct - Dec 2022.
By NOAA El Nino is expected to be done :) between March and June.
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