WTI slides despite supply disruptions
- Oil prices pulled back on Thursday, with no clear fundamental catalyst behind the tumble. Interestingly enough, the slip in prices occurred despite actual and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Specifically, Iraqi Kurdish oil exports declined notably this week, as the Iraqi military seized back major oil fields. Meanwhile, the US administration appears to be moving (slowly but surely) towards imposing fresh sanctions on Iran, something that could knock hundreds of thousands of barrels out of the market.
- Having outlined these risks, however, we are still hesitant to call for any rally in oil, and we maintain our view that any future gains in the precious liquid are likely to remain relatively limited from current levels. Even though the end-of-November OPEC meeting is approaching steadily, we think that most of the “good news” around a potential extension of the current deal may be priced into the market already.
- WTI tumbled on Thursday after it hit resistance once again at the 52.50 (R2) hurdle. The price dipped below the support (now turned into resistance) of 51.90 (R1) to stop near the key barrier of 51.50 (S1). A dip below that obstacle will confirm our long-standing view that any gains in oil prices are likely to remain limited within the 51.50 (S1) – 55.30 range, where we believe that US shale producers are attracted to increase production as their profit margins recover. If the bears are strong enough to overcome the 51.50 (S1) zone, then we may see them pulling the trigger for our next support of 50.50 (S3).
- Our short-term oscillators support somewhat the case for a dip below 51.50 (S1). The RSI slid below its 50 line, while the MACD, although positive, lies below its trigger line and points down. It could turn negative soon. What’s more, both of these indicators stand below their respective downside resistance lines.
- Zooming out to the daily chart, we can see much clearer the range we have been discussing for so long, and the frequent rejections from near or within it.