U.S. Stimulus, Oil Slides, And Gold

The last bit of good news for a while
 
The US stimulus news is probably the last piece of good news markets will get for a little bit, as attention now pivots back to the coronavirus curve and the scale of the economic damage.
 
 Risk markets were softer in Asia, with the Nikkei down 4.5%, as Japan moves closer to a state of emergency due to an increase in virus headcount. Japan was the outlier in Asian, but European and US equities are also off to a weak start, while fixed income is bid. Ultimately, any increase in new cases in China and other countries that are returning to work is the main risk to monitor.
 
Jobless claims will get focus today, with official estimate +1.7m but with plenty of chatter of 3m+ as the whisper. This is probably the main reason we are lower in Europe today.
 
Also, growth expectations are coming down by the day, and no wonder given the economic activity in France is currently running at only 65%, according to a note from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. This implies a 3% decline in annual GDP for every month the situation persists.
 
Oil
 
Both weaker growth and US jobless claims knockdown are weighing on oil prices this afternoon during Singapore to London cross over session in Asia. And when combined with the bunker and oil storage peak saturation trade that continues to keep oil rallies in check, the path of least resistance remains lower.
 
Gold

Gold continues to be a bit of a mystery for many analysts today as the "currency of last resort" thesis, in theory, is not playing out today as the lingering virus crisis dynamics suggest its too early to rule out further distressed sales near term.
 
Not to mention falling oil prices are creating dollar shortages for oil-producing countries and emerging market economies alike, which raises the specter of gold sales if and when USD needs arise.