Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains for the holiday-shortened final week of 2016. India's SENSEX was the top performer with its 2.25% advance, followed closely by Hong Kong's Hang Seng, up 1.97%. But it was the third place finisher that commands the spotlight. The UK's FTSE rose 1.06% for the week and ended the year with three consecutive record closes.
The Last Four Weeks
The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the last four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
2016 Year-End Performance
Here is an overlay of the eight illustrating their comparative performance in 2016.
Here is a table of the 2016 performance, sorted from high to low, along with the most recent highs for the eight indexes. Seven of the indexes posted 2016 gains, with the Brexit-charged FTSE the top performer by nearly five percent over the second place S&P 500. China's Shanghai Composite remains in the cellar, the sole index in the gang of eight to finish with a 2016 loss, and a whopper at that.
Bear Market Perspective
The column chart is sorted by the least to worst declines from previous peaks as of the week's end. Seven of our eight watch list indexes had dropped into bear territory (a 20% decline), the S&P 500 being the sole exception. As of the latest close, two indexes are in the bear zone, unchanged from the previous week.
A Longer Perspective
The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAXK on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and using a log scale vertical axis, we get an excellent visualization of the relative performance. We've indexed each of the eight to 800 on the March 9th start date. The call-out in the upper left corner shows the percent change from the start date to the latest weekly close.
Here is the same visualization, this time starting on October 9, 2007, the closing high for the S&P 500, a date the is approximately the mid-point of the range of market peaks, which started on June 1st for the CAC 40 and ended on January 8, 2008 for the SENSEX.
For a longer look at the relative performance, our final chart starts at the turn of the century, again indexing each at 800 for the start date.
Check back next week for a new update.
Note: We track Germany's DAXK a price-only index, instead of the more familiar DAX index (which includes dividends), for consistency with the other indexes, which do not include dividends.
All the indexes are calculated in their local currencies.