Weekly Technical Analysis For August 19th to 23rd, 2019
The euro was under selling pressure last week despite mounting evidence that the German economy is heading toward a recession.
The US dollar rose versus the euro after the release of US inflation data. The US CPI increased to 1.8% YoY ahead of the 1.7% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile items such as food and fuel, unexpectedly ticked higher to 2.2% YoY, versus 2.1% forecast.
Addition to that, U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in July from a month earlier, data showed last Thursday. Markets previously expected a rise of 0.3%.
In the upcoming week, the FOMC meeting notes will be important releases in the US. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in their last meeting and they announced it will end the balance sheet reduction program in August, two months earlier. The FOMC meeting Minutes may give a more detailed about Fed Outlook.
Keep your eye on the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is set to take place from Thursday to Saturday. The meeting is significant for the Global Financial Market as the Federal Reserve will be making keynote speeches. Markets started to price in a quarter-point interest rate cut in September Meeting.
Moreover, the European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its last rate-setting meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged in their last meeting. The ECB Chair Draghi indicated the bank was prepared to cut rates in September and consider other options for easing.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair found sellers from the 1.1219 daily level and dropped below the daily level of 1.1103. As long as the price below 1.1103, on a daily basis, the downward movement may gain more momentum and the main support level will be found at 1.0980. In contrast, If the price rises above 1.1103, we will see the resistance level at 1.1219.
Support: 1.0980 - 1.0837
Resistance: 1.1103 - 1.1219 - 1.1285
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair is moving up slightly. In the event that the upward movement continues, we will see 1.2395 as a key resistance level. On the other hand, if the selling pressure continues, we will follow 1.1979 as a daily support level.
Support: 1.1979
Resistance: 1.2395 - 1.2528 - 1.2607
USD/JPY: We will closely watch the 106.72 daily resistance level in the USD/JPY pair. In order for the upward movement to continue, it needs to break out and stay above 106.72 on a daily basis. Should this occur, the next daily resistance level will be at 107.70. Otherwise, we will see the 105.19 support level again.
Support: 105.18
Resistance : 106.72 - 107.70 - 108.49
Crude Oil WTI: The crude oil Price moved up above the main level of 55.43. If the price stays above 55.43, on a four hourly basis, the rise may gain more momentum and the main resistance level can be found at 56.67. On the other hand, if the price drops below 55.43, the next support level is holding at 54.14.
Support: 55.43 - 54.14 - 52.72
Resistance: 56.67 - 57.88 - 59.01
BTC/USD: The BTC/USD pair found buyers above the daily support level of 9872 and moved up. If the upward movement continues, we will face the main resistance levels at 11403 and 13172. On the other hand, if the price falls below 9872, the next support level can be seen at 8143.
Support: 9872 - 8143 - 6433
Resistance: 11403 - 13172 - 14563
GOLD: The Gold Price found sellers from the 1512 main resistance level. If the precious metal price stays below 1512 on a four hourly basis. the daily support level can be seen at 1483. In contrast, If the price goes beyond 1512, the next resistance level will be at 1547
Support : 1483 - 1451 - 1414
Resistance : 1512 - 1547 - 1575