Tuesday was another record close for the S&P 500, this time cresting 4,140 for the first time ever.
These gains mean we rallyed more than 400 points since March’s Treasury yield pullback. That’s 11% over a handful of weeks if you play the normal game and a whole lot more if you take advantage of levered ETFs (like I do).
As boring as this market seems, there have been plenty of opportunities to make good money riding this gentle glide higher.
The looming complication is sentiment typically flips after becoming too obvious. A few weeks ago, it was obvious spiking interest rates were going to kill this bull market. And now it is obvious fundamentals don’t matter and prices will continue higher forever.
As contrarian traders, we need to be ready to go against the crowd. That does NOT mean buying a falling market or selling a rising one. That is arguing with the market and no one ever wins an argument wit the market. But now that prices have gone too far in one direction, we need to have A PLAN to deal with the inevitable snapback WHEN it happens (and not a moment sooner).
The easiest and most most braindead way of protecting our backside is following this rally higher with a trailing stop. The most undeniable aspect of any pullback is declining stock prices. If prices fall under our stops, we get out. Easy as that.
There are other signs the rally is running out of gas, but none of those apply to an index that keeps making fresh highs. We can dig into those warning signs when prices retreat from the highs, but until then, keep holding for higher prices and continue lifting our trailing stops.
This rally will end at some point, but this is not that point.
Bitcoin broke out above the old $60k highs and added another 5%. So far so good. Keep holding for higher prices with stops just under $60k. If this breakout fizzles and retreats back into the consolidation, demand isn’t ready yet. But as long as this cryptocurrency remains above $60k, keep holding for higher prices.