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What Is The Outlier Scenario For Gold?

By Tim KnightCommoditiesApr 19, 2017 01:27AM ET
What Is The Outlier Scenario For Gold?
By Tim Knight   |  Apr 19, 2017 01:27AM ET
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What is the very big picture of spot Gold telling us, if anything? That there is a very bullish outlier scenario that could be unfolding…

We can make the case that all of the action from 2013 through mid-April 2017 is a base-accumulation formation that concluded the major corrective period from the September 2011 high at $1921.50 into the December 2015 low at $1046.20.

The huge base formation is pushing up into and against the 2011-2017 down trendline, which cuts across the price axis this week at $1295. If the major resistance line is hurdled and sustained– and it is a BIG IF– then all of the potential power of the huge base-accumulation formation will be poised to propel price up into and through a remaining resistance zone at $1375-$1388 to complete the rounded base period. This would trigger a measured upside follow-through potential to $1580 and possibly into the $1700 area thereafter.

What might the financial world have to look like for such an “outlier” bullish scenario to unfold? Certainly, a much higher, almost acute, fear of the unknown if geopolitical tensions ratchet up to unprecedented levels, which could be accompanied by Fed back-pedaling on rate hike normalization that unleashes concerns that precious metals asset inflation is in full gear to the upside…

A lot has to “go right” for such a bullish scenario to unfold in Gold, but the potential appears to be developing right in front of our eyes.

Weekly Spot Gold
Weekly Spot Gold

What Is The Outlier Scenario For Gold?

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What Is The Outlier Scenario For Gold?

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Solomon Lalani
Solomon Apr 19, 2017 8:32AM GMT
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Thanks Tim. I asked you yesterday what TP you anticipate on your Gold shorts. This analysis indicate it is around USD 1000 or perhaps even below on longer term basis. A convincing breach of 1295 cancels it. Right?
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