Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of September 12th through September 16th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of September 12th through the 16th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, September 12th
6:15pm USD FOMC Member Brainard said that, “In the months ahead, my colleagues and I will continue to assess what policy path will best promote the sustained attainment of our goals. With that in mind, I would like to start by describing the contours of today's economy that will be particularly important in shaping the appropriate path of policy before reviewing recent developments.
These contours represent noteworthy departures from the "old normal" that prevailed in the decades prior to the financial crisis. I would argue that policy today must rely less on the old normal as a guidepost and instead be sensitive to the contours that shape today's "new normal.” The currency fell.
11:30pm AUD RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that, “The depreciation of the Australian dollar over recent years has improved Australia's competitiveness and thereby supported production in the tradable sector. However, the depreciation didn't start in earnest until 18 months after the terms of trade had peaked.
While it is hard to be precise, our modelling suggests that the exchange rate (the real trade weighted index, or real TWI) has not depreciated by quite as much as might have been expected in response to the actual decline in the terms of trade (and the reductions in domestic interest rates).” The currency rose.
Tuesday, September 13th
12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 2.9 versus -6.5 expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 6 versus last 4. The currency fell.
3:00am CNY Industrial Production 6.3% versus 6.2% expected.
3:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment 8.1% versus 7.9% expected.
8:15am CHF PPI -0.3% versus -0.2% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP CPI 0.6% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP PPI Input 0.2% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP RPI 1.8% versus 1.8% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 0.5 versus 2.8 expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 5.4 versus 6.7 expected. The currency fell.
11:45am EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “The structure of the European Union is solid and its fundamental values remain its base. But the integration process needs to be guided towards outcomes that are more efficient and more directly aimed at the people, their needs and their fears – and less focused on institution-building. European institutions are not accepted per se by the people, but only as necessary instruments to provide those outcomes.” The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD Current Account -0.95B versus -0.30B expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, September 14th
9:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 2.3% versus 2.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 2.4K versus 1.7K expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 4.9% versus 4.9% expected. The currency rose.
10:50am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that, “A well-functioning foreign exchange market is very much in the interest of all market participants. This clearly includes central banks, both in their own role as market participants but also as the exchange rate is an important channel of monetary policy transmission. In a globalised world, the foreign exchange market is one of the most vital parts of the financial plumbing.” The currency rose.
11:30am CAD Governor Council Member Wilkins, referring to the reality of slower growth in Canada said that, “For households, this may mean saving more before retirement or planning for a lower post-retirement income, it also means acknowledging a reduced capacity to grow out of existing debts. The faster we do this, the safer the financial system will be. Authorities have to continue to solidify the global financial system and guard against emerging problems”. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Import Prices -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.6M versus 2.8M expected. The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD GDP 0.9% versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, September 15th
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Employment Change -3.9K versus 15.2K expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.6% versus 5.7% expected. The currency rose.
8:30am CHF Libor Rate -0.75% versus -0.75% expected. The currency fell.
8:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment noted that, “The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. At the same time, the SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary. The negative interest rate and the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing upward pressure on the currency. The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued. The SNB’s expansionary monetary policy is aimed at stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity.” The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Retail Sales -0.2% versus -0.4% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Final CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
12:00pm GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Monetary Policy Summary noted that, “The Committee’s view of the contours of the economic outlook following the EU referendum had not changed. News on the near-term momentum of the UK economy had, however, been slightly to the upside relative to the August Inflation Report projections. The Committee will assess that news, along with other forthcoming indicators, during its November forecast round. If, in light of that full updated assessment, the outlook at that time is judged to be broadly consistent with the August Inflation Report projections, a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound at one of the MPC’s forthcoming meetings during the course of this year. The MPC currently judges this bound to be close to, but a little above, zero.” The currency rose. 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate 0.25% versus 0.25% expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility 435B versus 435B expected. The currency rose.
12:00pm GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 versus 0-0-9 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales -0.1% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 12.8 versus 1.1 expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales -0.3% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Intial Jobless Claims 260K versus 262K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Current Account -120B versus -120B expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -2.0 versus -0.9 expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 75.5% versus 75.8% expected. The currency fell.
2:15pm USD Industrial Production -0.4% versus -0.2% expected. The currency fell.
Friday, September 16th
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales 0.1% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 5.23B versus 10.12B. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD CPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 89.8 versus 91.0 expected. The currency rose.
Technical Recap for the Majors this Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.12339 open to a 1.11680 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 102.534 open to 102.128 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
. Actual: Lower from a 1.32638 open to a 1.30953 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly lower.
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.75365 open to 0.74821 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly higher
. Actual: Higher from a 1.30504 open to a 1.32464 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.73182 open to a 0.72652 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.