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Weekly FX Market Forecasts: December 28th – January 1st

Published 12/30/2015, 12:24 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 28th – January 1st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

Sunday, December 27th
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)

Monday, December 28th
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, December 29th
1:30pm USD Goods Trade Balance (-60.9B expected, > good for currency)
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (93.9 expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, December 30th
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
9:00am EUR EZ M3 Money Supply (5.2% expected, < good for currency)
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -5.9M, > good for currency)

Thursday, December 31st
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (274K expected, < good for currency)
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI (50.4 expected, > good for currency)
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Friday, January 1st
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (49.9 expected)
1:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.6 expected)
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday

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Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 1.0983/86, 1.0996/98, 1.1005/10, 1.1016/17, 1.1040, 1.1048/52, 1.1072, 1.1094/97, 1.1104, 1.1113/15, 1.1133/34, 1.1142/44, 1.1150, 1.1159, 1.1170/75, 1.1192, 1.1211/19, 1.1256/80, 1.1294/1.1303, 1.1317/18, 1.1331/33, 1.1375/91, 1.1422/34, 1.1442/49, 1.1459, 1.1483, 1.1494/98, 1.1533, 1.1642, 1.1713, 1.1753, 1.1866/77, 1.1900/01, 1.1938, 1.1975, 1.2041, 1.2133, 1.2143, 1.2162/64, 1.2219, 1.2241/55, 1.2270/72, 1.2323/33, 1.2357/62, 1.2381/94, 1.2407/39, 1.2455, 1.2494/96, 1.2500/01, 1.2514/19, 1.2531, 1.2545, 1.2569/70, 1.2588/89, 1.2605, 1.2613, 1.2623/25, 1.2661/63, 1.2676, 1.2692/98, 1.2715, 1.2744/54, 1.2791/1.2805, 1.2815/21, 1.2834/79, 1.2900/04, 1.2919/21 and 1.2978/98.
Above: 1.3000/03, 1.3047, 1.3059/66, 1.3077, 1.3093/1.3109, 1.3126/30, 1.3152/65, 1.3172/77, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3220/42, 1.3294/99, 1.3305/08, 1.3318/24, 1.3332/35, 1.3344/53, 1.3366, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3416, 1.3432/44, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.0968, 1.0960, 1.0915/17, 1.0896, 1.0882/86, 1.0873, 1.0866/69, 1.0847, 1.0818/33, 1.0802/7, 1.0762/90, 1.0736, 1.0707, 1.0688, 1.0616, 1.0591/95, 1.0565/68, 1.0499, 1.0461, 1.0206 and 1.0104.
Below: 0.9607/21, 0.9599, 0.9451, 0.9338, 0.8840, 0.8822/28, 0.8594 and 0.8562.

USD/JPY: Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 120.56, 120.72/82, 121.02, 121.19/23, 121.27/38, 121.48/50, 121.62/65, 121.80/84, 121.96, 122.01, 122.22/30, 122.44, 122.60/68, 122.87, 123.12, 123.25, 123.42/49, 123.71/78, 123.95, 124.05, 124.11/14, 124.22, 124.35/38, 124.43/46, 125.06, 125.27 and 125.40.
Above: 125.67/75, 126.17, 126.41, 126.90 and 135.19.
Support:
Initial: 120.34/47, 120.17/27, 120.02/10, 119.95, 119.80, 119.61/65, 119.37/46, 119.21/28, 119.01, 118.85/97, 118.62/67, 118.23/45, 118.04/05, 117.93/99, 117.76, 117.43, 117.23, 116.82/117.02, 116.10/14 115.85, 115.56/58, 114.65, 112.98, 111.78, 111.60, 110.39/47, 110.08, 109.90, 109.53, 109.45, 108.98, 108.42, 108.24, 108.00, 107.38/39, 107.18, 107.05, 106.80, 106.24, 105.70, 105.41/43, 105.30/33, 105.18, 104.83/91, 104.63/68, 104.36, 104.07/26, 103.91, 103.82, 103.73/75, 103.37/43, 103.30, 102.92/103.08, 102.57/82, 102.49/52, 102.33/40, 102.26, 102.13/14, 101.90/102.04, 101.60/83, 101.50/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22 and 100.00.
Below: 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, 95.44, 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

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GBP/USD: Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 1.4927, 1.4943/50, 1.4966/67, 1.4985/88, 1.5007, 1.5013/14, 1.5026/33, 1.5053/56, 1.5072/77, 1.5081, 1.5092, 1.5101/06, 1.5123, 1.5130/36, 1.5152/64, 1.5173/80, 1.5185/87, 1.5195/99, 1.5208/23, 1.5236/41, 1.5260/68, 1.5276, 1.5293, 1.5304/05, 1.5313/51, 1.5382/84, 1.5392, 1.5403/40, 1.5457/58, 1.5467, 1.5476/85, 1.5496/99, 1.5505/08, 1.5514/20, 1.5529/33, 1.5538/51, 1.5561/68, 1.5584/96, 1.5601/19, 1.5624/27, 1.5646, 1.5656/58, 1.5669/74, 1.5683/92, 1.5714/17, 1.5725, 1.5750, 1.5763, 1.5775/89, 1.5803/07, 1.5817, 1.5825, 1.5844, 1.5853, 1.5874/77, 1.5886/93, 1.5900/27, 1.5948/61, 1.5975/94, 1.6001/08, 1.6051/66, 1.6071/83, 1.6096/98, 1.6109/21, 1.6130/36, 1.6155, 1.6161, 1.6177/83, 1.6195/98, 1.6204/16, 1.6222/26, 1.6237/46, 1.6251/62, 1.6280/90, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6336, 1.6348, 1.6357, 1.6376, 1.6380/83, 1.6394, 1.6400, 1.6415/18, 1.6441/44, 1.6458/65, 1.6484 and 1.6496.
Above: 1.6516, 1.6524, 1.6534, 1.6548, 1.6576/86, 1.6592, 1.6611/17, 1.6624, 1.6640/56, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6692/98, 1.6716/24, 1.6730/37, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6765/68, 1.6777, 1.6785, 1.6800/02, 1.6812, 1.6819/22, 1.6831/44, 1.6874/87, 1.6902/09, 1.6919/20, 1.6951, 1.6960, 1.6995, 1.7000, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78, 1.7190 and 1.7440.
Support:
Initial: 1.4913, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4868, 1.4856, 1.4830 and 1.4805/12.
Below: 1.4785, 1.4698, 1.4634, 1.4615, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Mildly Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 0.7266/71, 0.7279/82, 0.7295, 0.7302, 0.7338, 0.7343, 0.7362/65, 0.7370, 0.7379, 0.7393, 0.7413, 0.7444, 0.7469, 0.7487, 0.7504, 0.7559, 0.7590 0.7597/92, 0.7614, 0.7625, 0.7634, 0.7642/43, 0.7653, 0.7674, 0.7681, 0.7700/10, 0.7719/22, 0.7725, 0.7738/40, 0.7750/60, 0.7772/84, 0.7791/92, 0.7817, 0.7825, 0.7840/88, 0.7912, 0.7919, 0.7950, 0.7988, 0.8008, 0.8020, 0.8024/34, 0.8051, 0.8066/87, 0.8106, 0.8121, 0.8138, 0.8156, 0.8172, 0.8203/14, 0.8223, 0.8233, 0.8294, 0.8307, 0.8375, 0.8416, 0.8473/84, 0.8512, 0.8541, 0.8578, 0.8590, 0.8641, 0.8651/62, 0.8693, 0.8702, 0.8729, 0.8747/54, 0.8760/73, 0.8784, 0.8812, 0.8819/25, 0.8842/52, 0.8857/61, 0.8869, 0.8887/97, 0.8906/12, 0.8918/20, 0.8923/36, 0.8951/57, 0.8967/69, 0.8981/87, 0.8994/0.9010, 0.9035, 0.9041, 0.9042/48, 0.9054/57, 0.9061/66, 0.9072/79, 0.9102, 0.9110/19, 0.9127/37, 0.9147, 0.9162/67, 0.9179/89, 0.9200/08, 0.9214/26, 0.9232/74, 0.9286/94, 0.9304, 0.9311, 0.9328/34, 0.9343/53, 0.9359, 0.9386/0.9410, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.7248/49, 0.7234, 0.7221/23, 0.7214/15, 0.7197, 0.7181/84, 0.7154/70, 0.7096/98, 0.7083, 0.7062/69, 0.7030, 0.7021/24, 0.6945, 0.6936/37, 0.6918, 0.6907, 0.6852, 0.6773, 0.6753, 0.6697, 0.6670 and 0.6555.
Below: 0.6339/41, 0.6317, 0.5804, 0.5795, 0.5730, 0.5645, 0.5490, 0.5399, 0.5228, 0.4815 and 0.4773.

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USD/CAD: Mildly Lower
Resistance:
Initial: 1.3872, 1.3992/93, 1.4000/06 and 1.4035.
Above: 1.4195 and 1.4277.
Support:
Initial: 1.3813, 1.3687, 1.3606, 1.3456, 1.3434, 1.3415, 1.3395, 1.3367/74, 1.3352, 1.3323/25, 1.3316, 1.3305/09, 1.3270/79, 1.3260/64, 1.3241/45, 1.3233, 1.3212, 1.3197, 1.3190, 1.3174, 1.3136, 1.3115/16, 1.3101, 1.3099, 1.3089, 1.3079, 1.3062, 1.3054, 1.3037/39, 1.3021, 1.3007/14, 1.2994, 1.2985, 1.2970, 1.2935, 1.2900, 1.2830/34, 1.2822, 1.2797, 1.2772/78, 1.2696/94, 1.2662, 1.2631, 1.2625, 1.2615, 1.2613, 1.2609, 1.2585/91, 1.2563, 1.2537, 1.2471, 1.2456/61, 1.2448/58, 1.2436, 1.2421, 1.2406, 1.2386, 1.2378, 1.2361/66, 1.2351, 1.2333, 1.2287, 1.2244, 1.2126, 1.2091, 1.2045, 1.2030, 1.2016, 1.1976, 1.1933, 1.1886, 1.1872/75, 1.1841, 1.1802, 1.1794/96, 1.1723/29, 1.1670/72, 1.1666, 1.1547/90, 1.1475, 1.1457/65, 1.1443/47, 1.1391/92, 1.1384, 1.1331/39, 1.1310/12, 1.1289/95, 1.1263/77, 1.1254, 1.1221/29, 1.1190/94, 1.1168/73, 1.1158, 1.1152, 1.1141, 1.1116/32, 1.1102/09, 1.1097/99, 1.1081/89, 1.1069/70, 1.1030/53, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.0962/66, 1.0954/59, 1.0941/45, 1.0934, 1.0925/28, 1.0915, 1.0903/09, 1.0894,1.0873/86, 0852/59, 1.0849, 1.0839/40, 1.0820/27, 1.0813, 1.0793/96, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22 and 1.0506.
Below: 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018, 1.0012, 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Higher
Resistance:
Initial: 0.6834/44, 0.6863, 0.6895, 0.6923, 0.6966, 0.7051, 0.7076, 0.7102, 0.7112, 0.7174, 0.7199, 0.7213, 0.7230, 0.7273, 0.7305, 0.7312, 0.7331/36, 0.7368, 0.7394, 0.7404, 0.7419/20, 0.7433, 0.7440/47, 0.7455/59, 0.7467, 0.7484/0.7500, 0.7528/55, 0.7585/95, 0.7609, 0.7605/59, 0.7679/97, 0.7705/35, 0.7751/58, 0.7760/64, 0.7763, 0.7779/83, 0.7791/95, 0.7804/08, 0.7819/29, 0.7838/48, 0.7856/57, 0.7863/78, 0.7888, 0.7903/06, 0.7925/37, 0.7967, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.8030, 0.8040, 0.8049/60, 0.8075/82, 0.8100/09, 0.8114/37, 0.8147/53, 0.8160/76, 0.8186, 0.8195/97, 0.8204/14, 0.8221/41, 0.8250/55, 0.8263, 0.8268/71, 0.8280, 0.8285/87, 0.8291/95, 0.8302/16, 0.8322/66, 0.8376, 0.8389, 0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8421/61, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89, and 0.8499.
Above: 0.8504/18, 0.8523/37, 0.8542/53, 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821, 0.8834 and 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.6806/11, 0.6790, 0.6784, 0.6760, 0.6734/38, 0.6719/20, 0.6706, 0.6693/96, 0.6679, 0.6639/41, 0.6616/20, 0.6591/0.6609, 0.6585, 0.6571, 0.6557, 0.6538, 0.6519, 0.6504, 0.6491/97, 0.6466, 0.6448/55, 0.6435, 0.6423/27, 0.6400/07, 0.6396, 0.6382/88, 0.6287, 0.6269, 0.6254, 0.6248, 0.6242 and 0.6234.
Below: 0.6022, 0.5991, 0.5926, 0.5914, 0.5682, 0.5673, 0.5608, 0.5637/41, 0.5480 and 0.5324.

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