The common theme in EUR/USD and cross pairs since June 1 is trading quick and short term moves at the 5 and 10 day averages. Overbought / oversold to extremes last week were found from 1.1290’s to 1.1140’s and EUR traded actual from 1.1280’s to 1.1160’s for a 120 pip week. Short term averages lack range therefore ability to move before overbought / oversold severely restricts upward or downward momentum. The result is a dead range trade rather than a trend.
The further common theme for this week in EUR, GBP and AUD is participation from the 20 day average yet the overall effects to weekly prices is zero to minimal as the 20 day average lacks any range difference to its 5 and 10 day counterparts.
EUR/USD range indicators reveal a 1.8% variation and confirms not only dead ranges but a low low EUR price overall. EUR is fast approaching bottoms but fighting against EUR and a further explanation to dead ranges is the economic uncertainty derived from both Europe and USD. Is USD economics equally as bad as Europe is unknown. The Fed’s high balance sheet against a desired rise in a severely overbought Fed Funds rate is equivalent to insertion of round object into the square. Then comes the cross pairs.
The cross pairs most affected by EUR/USD are EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP. The EUR/GBP price is to high, EUR/CAD to low and EUR/CHF contains severe range problems as its price by SNB standards is always priced below EUR/USD. Higher relieves the pressure in EUR/CHF but then its price becomes overbought. EUR/CAD’s price is most lowest to its counterparts.
The cross pairs not as affected by EUR/USD due to wide ranges by central bank design are EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD and a favorite in EUR/AUD. Most affected means wider allowable movements to its shorter term averages. EUR/AUD by far offers the best trade opportunity for the week.
Offered below are EUR/USD and cross pair ranges for the week as well as significant support and resistance points. Tops and bottoms are buy and sell levels while support / Resistance points are must breaks to see a more significant move.
EUR/USD supports are located at rising 1.1014 and 1.0837. Sell points are located from 1.1281 to 1.1295 while longs are found from 1.1147 to 1.1163. Current EUR/USD is oversold.
EUR/JPY supports are located at 122.56 and 121.23 then above at 126.91 and 128.15. Solid below is 121.23 as bottoms and longs for the week are located at 122.10 and 121.90. Shorts and long targets are located from 125.06, 125.50 and 125.95. At 125.95 is not expected but offered in case Yellen Wednesday offers a non expected statement quip.
EUR/CHF supports are located from 1.0827 and 1.0774. How solid are supports is measured against bottom extreme prices at 1.0807 and 1.0712. Above long targets and reversals are located from 1.0933 to 1.0963 and Wednesday from 1.1005 to 1.1039. Above 1.0963 is not expected.
EUR/CAD supports are located from 1.4825 then 1.4582 and 1.4569. Further supports are located at 1.4322 and 1.4123. How solid is 1.4800 is again measured by extremes below at 1.5004, 1.4991 and 1.4978. Above oversold EUR/CAD will struggle at 1.5220, 1.5254 and 1.5268.
EUR/NZD supports are located at 1.5453 Vs resistance points at 1.5564 and 1.5899. A break of 1.5453 takes EUR/NZD to extremes from 1.5348 to 1.5361 and 1.5369. Overall, EUR/NZD’s price is well balanced.
EUR/AUD supports are located at 1.4697 and 1.4376 Vs above at 1.4898. EUR/AUD will severely struggle to head lower from 1.4664 and 1.4684. EUR/AUD’s price is low yet above dead stops will be seen at 1.5289 and 1.5302. Ranges are wide and mny opportunities exist.
EUR/GBP is least favored as it lacks range, is overbought and its price is to high. Despite the technical short reasons, EUR/GBP is just not making downside progress over last weeks. Supports are located 0.8637 and 0.8577. Above EUR/GBP will find much resistance at 0.8806, 0.8816 and 0.8821. A Yellen fluke could see EUR/GBP hit the Stratosphere at 0.8867 but not expected. Below points include 0.8626, 0.8611 and 0.8578. The support at 0.8578 will hold and 0.8637 will be key for the week.