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Weekend Update: VIX On Buy Signal After Recent Rally

Published 04/22/2018, 01:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

VIX Weekly Chart

VIX declined to a late Master Cycle low on April 17, then proceeded to rally above Intermediate-term support at 16.81. VIX is now on a buy signal.

(ZeroHedge) When Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist, Michael Wilson, released his 2018 equity outlook earlier this year, one particular observation struck us: a curious correlation between volatility and the shape of the yield curve we had not seen anywhere previously.

In his discussion in late November 2017, Wilson explained why he expected bigger volatility in the coming year, and why he thought "things will change in 2018." He showed the following chart which illustrates an interesting relationship between equity volatility and the economic cycle.

SPX repelled at Intermediate-term resistance.

SPX Weekly Chart

SPX extended the rally through Wednesday, rising above the 2-year trendline in a throw-over to Intermediate-term resistance at 2713.96. It appears to have made an island reversal on the daily charts at Thursday’s open. The two-year trendline was broken on Friday morning, giving it a sell signal. A break beneath Long-term support at 2602.31 confirms the new outlook.

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday, as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) led a decline in technology stocks on concerns about weak iPhone demand and investors worried about the impact of a rise in U.S. bond yields.

Apple fell 3.8 percent and was the biggest drag on the major indexes after Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) estimated weak demand for its latest iPhones, adding to fears raised by Taiwan Semiconductor of softer smartphone sales.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) were the other big decliners, leading to a 1.6 percent drop on the S&P technology index, its third straight day of decline.

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