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Week Ahead: U.S. Equities To Extend Rally On Hopes, Not Data; Oil To Struggle

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewApr 19, 2020 06:36AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-us-equities-to-extend-rally-on-hopes-not-data-oil-to-struggle-200522016
Week Ahead: U.S. Equities To Extend Rally On Hopes, Not Data; Oil To Struggle
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Apr 19, 2020 06:36AM ET
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  • Stocks rallied on slim hopes of relaxed lockdowns, economic recovery
  • Yields reverse back to all-time lows
  • First Chinese economic contraction in decades

With markets betting on a rebounding economy as the national conversation shifts from the pandemic itself to the possibility of easing lockdown restrictions and the arrival of a treatment for COVID-19, U.S. stocks extended their rally a second week—for a total of 3 weeks out of 4.

The S&P 500 climbed for a second week, gaining 3%, its longest advance since the market peaked in mid-February. As such, and as we've noted before, we’ve changed our position from bearish to bullish, albeit grudgingly.

Thin Hopes vs. Hard Reality

To be clear, not only are we hesitant to maintain a bullish stance, we're irritated by it. Investors are currently buying up stocks, pushing equity indices back toward their record high on thin hopes, while ignoring the hard facts. Currently there are more than 2,330,000 cases of COVID-19 globally, with close to 161,000 fatalities. The U.S. with more than 735,000 confirmed cases remains the immediate epicenter for the disease.

Yet stocks are rallying on promises the Fed and U.S. government will be able to prop up the country's economy with fiscal stimulus and monetary policies, even as the political narrative says scientists along with the pharmaceutical industry will rapidly find a vaccine or drug to stop the pandemic.

The hard reality is somewhat different, however: these same drug makers clearly indicate a quick cure is not a forgone conclusion and optimistic dates for the arrival of a vaccine aren't a certainty either. Such unrealistic promises are similar to what occurred in the 1980s, during the HIV and AIDS epidemic. 35 years later there's still no vaccine nor a cure, though there are antiretroviral treatments that can control the virus—but it took years for these to be developed.

At the same time, we have solid and alarming data making the case for a recession. Jobless claims surged for the third straight week, with 5.2 million Americans applying for assistance in just the past week, bringing the total of recently unemployed to 22 million, erasing the same number of jobs created since March 2009, sending what could perhaps be regarded as an ominous signal.

It's the worst loss of jobs since the Great Depression, eclipsing anything seen over the past 4.5 decades:

Worst U.S. Job Losses
Worst U.S. Job Losses

That's not all. Retail Sales fell more than 8% in March, 16% annually, and Housing Starts were simply ravaged. The world’s second largest economy, China, shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year ago.

Will America see a similar contraction? Yes. Of course, there's an argument to be made that this is only a temporary problem, since the economy was solid beforehand. Our answer: at this juncture we have no idea just how temporary this problem may be. Remember, a cure for AIDS has never been found, notwithstanding years of promises.

Nevertheless, having judged investors as impulsive, we recognize that the trend remains higher. Therefore—grudgingly—we expect stock prices to continue higher, until, if and when they top out. And never fear, we'll remain vigilant. As soon as a top appears we'll let everyone know.

U.S. Major Indices All Rally But Yields Drop

SPX Daily
SPX Daily

So far, the S&P 500 Index rebounded 28.5% from the March 23 bottom, after falling 33.9% from the Feb. 19 top. On Friday, the SPX closed above the 50 DMA, for the first time since the benchmark gapped below it on Feb. 24.

On the other hand, it's possible index is developing a rising wedge, bearish after the preceding, COVID-19 selloff. We’re in a tricky environment right now, as the entire wedge constitutes a bullish reversal of over 20%. Still, let’s see which way the price will break out. Note, the pattern’s climax can be around the 200 DMA at the psychological, round 3,000 level.

The other major indices didn’t fare as well, from a technical perspective.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 30.5% from its March 23 bottom—more than the S&P 500, it also suffered an earlier and greater preceding loss, 37.1% from the Feb. 12 peak. The mega cap index's Friday was below its 50 DMA. Like the SPX, the Dow, too, may be developing a rising wedge.

NASDAQ Comp Daily
NASDAQ Comp Daily

The NASDAQ Composite trailed the other large cap indices, gaining just 26.1% since its March 23 bottom, after its 30.1% drop from the Feb. 19 record. While the tech-heavy index already traversed not only its 50 and even 200 DMAs, that was not enough to stop a Death Cross. As well, the index 'hit its head' below the 100 DMA and was forced to close below it, forming a hanging man. If Monday’s close is lower, it will have provided a sell signal, at least on a pullback.

The small cap Russell 2000 underperformed on the rebound from its March 23 bottom, gaining 24.3%—even after its considerably earlier peak on Jan. 16, from which it dropped more than any of the other major U.S. benchmarks, shedding 42% of value. Furthermore, it is the only one among the major-four that declined for the week (-1.4%).

Despite the week's equity rally, yields, including for the 10-year Treasury, dropped to the lowest level since April 3, in a two-day decline that separates rates from the lowest level since the March 8 bottom.

UST 10Y Daily
UST 10Y Daily

Technically, yields fell below their uptrend line since the lowest intraday level of March 9. If we consider the 50 DMA a fair downtrend line, the downward penetration of the uptrend line might be regarded as a downside breakout of a symmetrical triangle, which—following a downtrend—signals a continued fall.

The dollar trimmed some of last week’s losses, crossing above its downtrend line since the March 19 peak.

DXY Daily
DXY Daily

From a technical perspective, the USD may have completed a pennant, bullish after its preceding 8.5% gain in only 10 days, from March 9 through March 19. Note how the 50 DMA traces the pattern bottom, a mirror image of yields.

Gold futures dropped, pressured by both risk-on and dollar strength.

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

However, the precious metal found precise support by the neckline of a beautifully symmetrical H&S bottom, suggesting it completed a return move to retest the bullish pattern and is now ready to bounce back toward the $2,000 mark.

WTI fell for the seventh week out of eight as Saudi Arabia reportedly doubled its exports to the U.S. amid a market share grab via a price war.

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

Friday’s 8%+ crude collapse, after China's GDP release showed the world's biggest oil importer had experienced its first economic contraction in decades, took the commodity toward $18. Technically, the previous support of $20, the price floor since March 18, has become a ceiling of resistance.

The Week Ahead

All times listed are EDT

Sunday

21:30: China – PboC Loan Prime Rate: a rate cut is widely anticipated after Friday's GDP release signaled the dire effects of the coronavirus outbreak.

Monday

2:00: Germany – PPI: a contraction to -0.7% is forecast.

Tuesday

5:00: Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment: likely ticked up to -41.0 in April from -49.5 in March.

8:30: Canada – Core Retail Sales: expected to jump to 0.3% from -0.1%.

10:00: U.S. – Existing Home Sales: seen to continue to decline to 5.30M from 5.77M.

Wednesday

2:00: UK – CPI: probably edged lower to 1.5% from 1.7% YoY.

8:30: Canada – CPI: likely slipped to -0.4% in March, from 0.4% previously.

10:30: U.S. – Crude Oil Inventories: forecast to plunge to 11.676M from 19.248M.

Thursday

2:00: UK – Retail Sales: expected to have plummeted to -3.8% from -0.3%.

3:30: Germany – Manufacturing PMI: anticipated to fall deeper into contraction territory, to 39.0 from 45.4

8:30: U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims: after the past few weeks' dreadful numbers, this release will be closely watched.

10:00: U.S. – New Home Sales: seen to decline to 645K from 765K.

Friday

2:00: UK – Retail Sales: expected to contract further, to -4% from -0.3%.

4:00: Germany – Ifo Business Climate Index: likely to fall to 80.0 from 86.1.

6:30: Russia – Interest Rate Decision: anticipated to remain at 6.00%.

8:30: U.S. – Core Durable Goods Orders: likely to have plunged to -6.0% from -0.6%.

Week Ahead: U.S. Equities To Extend Rally On Hopes, Not Data; Oil To Struggle
 

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Week Ahead: U.S. Equities To Extend Rally On Hopes, Not Data; Oil To Struggle

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Comments (36)
John Novak
John Novak Apr 20, 2020 10:56PM ET
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Great analysis. W shaped recovery is a foregone conclusion. Gold will test 1900 as Fed money hopes to keep the S and P above 2400 to prevent China from taking over critical US assets. What can be done with cruden without a global demand? No one financial seismologist could have predicted the Covid financial earth quake or negative crude.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 20, 2020 10:56PM ET
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Thanks for your insightful feedback, John.
Tim Mcdaniel
Tim Mcdaniel Apr 20, 2020 6:01AM ET
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don't
Tim Mcdaniel
Tim Mcdaniel Apr 20, 2020 6:00AM ET
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believe
Tim Mcdaniel
Tim Mcdaniel Apr 20, 2020 6:00AM ET
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the
Tim Mcdaniel
Tim Mcdaniel Apr 20, 2020 6:00AM ET
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Covid
Tim Mcdaniel
Tim Mcdaniel Apr 20, 2020 5:53AM ET
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stop being bullish investors!!! we are trying to keep the markets down as election nears!!!!
Alberto Vivanti
Alberto Vivanti Apr 20, 2020 12:39AM ET
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I don't understand why so many criticism to this article. Does a skeptical point of view bother so much? The S&P500 was already fairly valued before this mess and now is just 15% away from the highs. Like if nothing had happened in between. Keep an eye to the volumes: they are gradually decreasing since the start of the bounce. Why? because a few companies are making most of the progress. 5 companies make 20% of the SP500 and they are now all-time highs. Have a look to most equities indexes around: the world index just recovered 40% of the downwave: a bear market correction. Good analysis, Pinchas
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 20, 2020 12:39AM ET
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Much appreciated, Alberto.
Johnson Gray
Johnson Gray Apr 19, 2020 11:58PM ET
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So everything just became a giant ponzi scheme.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 11:58PM ET
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Not just became but has been becoming since wealth was created with debt along for the next generation, only to keep passing the buck. Now, it just went supernova.
DONGHUN LEE
DONGHUN LEE Apr 19, 2020 11:57PM ET
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Currently, Only China and South Korea seem to controlled Covid 19 pandemic around the world. It give us a false hope. China's data is hard to believe, and community infections are constantly reported in South Korea, where I live, without any more aggressive tests. COVID 19 is unlikely to be conquered and is likely to remain a constant source of community infection. Recession maybe inevitable.
Ram Bogati
Ram Bogati Apr 19, 2020 9:32PM ET
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Exactly not good article, i never read before like hypothetical argument!
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 9:32PM ET
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You should read more.
Jáchym Vaněček
Jáchym Vaněček Apr 19, 2020 9:29PM ET
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The problem is that far too many hedge funds have shorted the markets..and they have been waiting for a large dip to make money on these and get back in the market...now their bets seem to have gone a little wrong. Their short hedges are losing money, and they missed the boat to get in. They're sitting on a boat load of cash to get back in.. at some time in near future, there will be a FOMO syndrome as these hedge funds' clients will ask their managers on putting their money to work.
Daniel Tumusiime
Daniel Tumusiime Apr 19, 2020 9:20PM ET
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Awesome
Randall Wagner
Randall Wagner Apr 19, 2020 5:39PM ET
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Hey Pinchas do you believe you should be analyzing data without the complete overlay of the fact that the technical reductions or negatives are all selfemposed.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 5:39PM ET
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Randall, when you're trying to survive wading through a jungle, you analyze whatever data you have.
A n a l y z e r
A n a l y z e r Apr 19, 2020 5:21PM ET
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I think people here are misunderstanding QE and central bank liquidity. Not even the FED wants the market to go up in a straight line. They want their money back, and some. Tactics are at play.
Oil for Lunch
Oil for Lunch Apr 19, 2020 5:21PM ET
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Correct. Just enough QE to goose equity plays towards the positive, irrespective of risk or PE. But there's a danger. If this virus really does take us into a global depression, then earnings will fall to record lows, and no amount of QE can prop up equities past, say, CAPE 30 -- forcing markets to crash. And given that much of the capital at-play will be QE-based, the only losers will the be American people, whose government just saddled them with generations of unpayable debt.
James Holmgren
James Holmgren Apr 19, 2020 3:31PM ET
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A trading metric you can count on. This market is waiting to rally each time some knuckle head declares a vaccine is near
Bev Moer
Bev Moer Apr 19, 2020 3:31PM ET
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And where do you propose that all the funds park all this central bank excess liquidity? USD? Gold?
James Holmgren
James Holmgren Apr 19, 2020 3:24PM ET
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Egnor the truth and covid 19 will rebound WhileTrumps cavalier attitude of covid 19 permeates 100,000 American deaths is not out of the question
Canis Lupus
Canis_lupus Apr 19, 2020 2:47PM ET
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When this all started it was called a health crisis, not an economic one. That was true, but the health crisis created a second crisis, an economic one. The hope that the market is responding to is for the end if the first crisis. The market hasn't even realized there is a second crisis yet. It's true the Fed has imprisoned a free market which will keep the floor in, but it can't ignore the reality of the economic crisis forever. Honestly, I don't think the economy was on such good footing before this happened. It wasn't bad, but certainly not as solid as the market said it was. The market was levetating then for all the wrong reasons it's levetating now. But again, up is up no matter the reason.
Oil for Lunch
Oil for Lunch Apr 19, 2020 2:47PM ET
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Correct, before the crisis, the "market" was not on solid foundation. Jobs? The lowest JQI in history. Debt? Historic high real middle-class debt. Wealth? Historic low real middle-class wealth. M2 and M3? Lowest velocity in recent history. Middle class upward mobility? Lowest since WW2. And another couple dozen metrics just like these. The "market" was soaring simply from QE1, 2, 3, and 4 -- unlimited fake wealth and liquidity with nowhere else to go. But main street was not participating. And now it's going to get far, far worse. The markets will soar, while main street goes bankrupt. I'll meet you at the casino exit door when this all comes crashing down.
Daniel Cohen
Daniel Cohen Apr 19, 2020 2:47PM ET
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Oil for Lunch lmao casino exit door.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 2:47PM ET
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Oil for Lunch  That's because the economy is not run by wealth but by debt.
Canis Lupus
Canis_lupus Apr 19, 2020 2:21PM ET
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i know how you feel. it's going up for all the wrong reasons, but if you don't conform and do what you're told, you lose. I guess we should all just do what we're told then and keep going up.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 2:21PM ET
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You know, a herd protects its members from predators, but if they all stampede off a cliff...
Canis Lupus
Canis_lupus Apr 19, 2020 2:21PM ET
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Oil for Lunch
Oil for Lunch Apr 19, 2020 12:56PM ET
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Equity markets will continue to skyrocket. FED infinite QE gives the markets unlimited liquidity, so there's nothing to hold markets back. It's like 1929 infinite margin calls, really very little difference, except now the Fed is playing with the people's money and giving it to Wall Street. If WS makes a good bet, they win. If they make a bad bet, we the people lose. See how that works? Profits privitized. Losses socialized. It's a casino that only a handful of ultra-wealth interests participate. Might as well tag along for the ride -- long equities until the casino comes crashing down.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 12:56PM ET
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Aptly put
Robert DZ the patterns
Robert DZ the patterns Apr 19, 2020 12:34PM ET
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Very realistic analysis.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 12:34PM ET
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Thanks, Robert.
everett Messner
everett Messner Apr 19, 2020 12:33PM ET
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all markets trade on future Hope's, not real data. I am a farmer and know all too well
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 12:33PM ET
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And I am an analyst. Let me tell you how to run a farm.
Ross Dre
Ross Dre Apr 19, 2020 12:33PM ET
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Pinchas Cohen haha! I’m liking Pinchas more and more.
Ross Dre
Ross Dre Apr 19, 2020 12:30PM ET
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Again.. great writing! The economy did appear to be strong before but we had a lot of warning signs that there was trouble brewing under the surface. Likely, it’s the reason we dropped as hard and fast as we did. I believe a major correction is necessary even from here so we can return to more of a healthy foundation to buy on... both technically & fundamentally.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 12:30PM ET
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We've had warning signs since late-2015.
Bev Moer
Bev Moer Apr 19, 2020 12:30PM ET
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But that liquidty has to get parked somewhere. There are 3 choices: Gold, USD and the equity market. Did I miss any?
stand fast
Standfast Apr 19, 2020 10:52AM ET
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Comparing Covid to HIV is ridiculous. HIV has a fairly unique mechanism that allows it readily mutate, making a vaccine impossible with current biotech strategies (not reportedly seen in COVID). Along with being a doctor, I am also a technical trader and can confidently say that being bullish before June OR before the DOW closes a day above 25K reflects a poor stance on the market. Albeit, the dates given for news releases is useful info.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 10:52AM ET
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I appreciate your opinion.
Moataz Safwat
Moataz Safwat Apr 19, 2020 10:52AM ET
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I see oil price 25.03 do you think that price will be traded this week or lower
stand fast
Standfast Apr 19, 2020 10:52AM ET
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Moataz Safwat  I'm not sure what's going on with the price on https://investing.com - technical chart shows WTI futures at $18.18, yet the price displayed is $25.03. Earlier in the week it looks like it could go below 18 (I'm not sure how much lower). There is a rally opening between the 22nd-24th of April, which, if missed will likely set it up for an abrupt bullish reversal in May.
Oil for Lunch
Oil for Lunch Apr 19, 2020 10:52AM ET
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Moataz Safwat   That's the futures price for June contract (25.03). Look up "contango". Spot price is far lower, in fact Bloomberg reporting "hand shake" deals for WTI below $10 barrel.
Moataz Safwat
Moataz Safwat Apr 19, 2020 10:52AM ET
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I sold 800 barrels at 25.19 on plus 500 I wish for 22$ or 23$
Roman Coppia
Roman Coppia Apr 19, 2020 10:45AM ET
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the question is not IF, but when and how deep will the markets sink.
Tjeerd De graan
Tjeerd De graan Apr 19, 2020 10:45AM ET
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Indeed he is bearish but doesn’t want to admit it.
Tjeerd De graan
Tjeerd De graan Apr 19, 2020 10:39AM ET
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Why are you bullish with all this ******news?
Show previous replies (1)
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Apr 19, 2020 10:39AM ET
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Tjeerd De graan  Because I am forcing myself not to care what should be but focus on what is. The market is nothing more than a glorified voting machine. And as long as it votes up, I'm up.
Jeff Prak
Jeff Prak Apr 19, 2020 10:39AM ET
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People do not seem to care about reality currently, everyone is living in a fantasy world that all will return to normal and this didnt have a effect on anything. The only thing that makes a market go down is people selling, no one is selling!
ERIC LIEW Properties
ERIC LIEW Properties Apr 19, 2020 10:39AM ET
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Jeff Prak, u are right!
Oil for Lunch
Oil for Lunch Apr 19, 2020 10:39AM ET
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Because infinite QE has disconnected equity markets from reality. Markets will continue to rally irrespective of risks. It's fake, based on fake liquidity. Welcome to the casino. Come in, have a seat.
Oil for Lunch
Oil for Lunch Apr 19, 2020 10:39AM ET
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Jeff Prak   Not a fantasy. There is unlimited liquidity being thrown into the market -- QE to infinity. The Fed is printing liquidity and giving it to Wall Street gamblers. If they win, they get rich. If they lose, we-the-people suffer the consequences. Privitized profits. Socialized losses. That's the casino we're in. Come in and join us.
 
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