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Week Ahead: Green Shoots

By Joe PerryMarket OverviewApr 17, 2020 05:38PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-green-shoots-200521963
Week Ahead: Green Shoots
By Joe Perry   |  Apr 17, 2020 05:38PM ET
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As each country, state, city and town remains in its own coronavirus reality, green shoots are emerging as discussions have begun as to when to bring life to each person’s hope. Economic data this week for March and April was, for the most part, more dismal than economists’ expected, including another 5,245,000 initial filings for U.S. jobless claims. This brings the last four weeks’ total to nearly 22 million. However, with Germany discussing reopening of schools and the United States discussing possibilities of “reopening” some states as early as May 1, traders are hoping for the best. This week watch tech earnings and, more importantly, their guidance. Also, keep an eye on oil, as Russia and Saudi Arabia have indicated they are open to additional cuts.

The S&P 500, DJIA, FTSE, and DAX all closed +/-3% last week, coming back to reality after the previous week’s +10% moves. However, the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite closed nearly +7% in anticipation of company earnings. A few tech giants report earnings this week, including IBM (NYSE:IBM), TXN (NASDAQ:TXN), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ). Other standouts include Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), and American Express (NYSE:AXP). It will be more important to focus on the guidance each company reports, rather than the actual earnings themselves. Traders will be watching to see how much of an economic impact the coronavirus is expected to take to each company.

The CFD on WTI Crude Oil was down another 21% to new lows this week and closed at 18.27, its lowest level since the fall of 2001. The expected fall in demand is outweighing the agreement of the possibility of additional supply cuts moving forward. (On Friday, crude contracts rolled to the next month. Depending on the which oil ticker you trade, your prices may differ. Having said that, the percentages should be the same.)

Currencies and metals were quiet for the most part on the week, relatively speaking, with most pairs closing within 1% of Monday’s open.

There are no major central bank meetings planned for this week, although most central banks are acting “as needed” with liquidity measures when markets get tight. This week is lite on economic data as well, before end of month/beginning of month data arrives over the next two weeks. Some economic highlights for this week are as follows:

Monday

  • New Zealand: Inflation Rate QoQ (Q1)
  • China: Loan Prime Rate 1Y
  • Germany: PPI MoM (MAR)

Tuesday

  • Australia: RBA Minutes
  • UK: Claimant Count Change
  • Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (APR)
  • Canada: Retail Sales (FEB)
  • US: Existing Home Sales (MAR)

Wednesday

  • UK: Inflation Rate, PPI, CPI, Retail Price Index (MAR)
  • Canada: Inflation Rate (MAR)
  • Canada: New Housing Price Index (MAR)
  • Crude Inventories

Thursday

  • Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (APR)
  • Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY)
  • UK: Retail Sales (MAR)
  • US: Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending April 18th)
  • US: New Home Sales (MAR)

Friday

  • Japan: Inflation Rate (MAR)
  • Germany: Ifo Business Climate (APR)
  • US: Durable Goods Orders (MAR)
  • US: University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (APR)

Chart of the Week: 3 Month WTI Crude Oil

Week Ahead: Green Shoots
 

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Week Ahead: Green Shoots

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Comments (2)
Nick Passarella
Nick Passarella Apr 18, 2020 7:21PM ET
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I'd rather be dead than live in a prolonged post Corona shutdown world!
Larry Glickman
Larry Glickman Apr 18, 2020 9:29AM ET
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The amout of help that quarantines can provide is exhausted and to wait for the entire world to be tested is a pipe dream and logistically impossible. Basic common sense is being shown in Sweden and the longer we prevent opening up trade and businesses the more likely we are going to have a real depression rioting crime and depression of the population on a massive scale.
Евгений Щепелин
Евгений Щепелин Apr 18, 2020 9:29AM ET
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Larry, if you'll be dead why do you worry about crisis?
 
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