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Week Ahead: Equities Under Pressure As COVID 2nd Wave Threatens Open Economies

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewJun 14, 2020 07:19AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/week-ahead-200527647
Week Ahead: Equities Under Pressure As COVID 2nd Wave Threatens Open Economies
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Jun 14, 2020 07:19AM ET
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  • After weeks of ignoring second wave warnings, investors late last week suddenly decided to pay attention
  • Potential second wave activity accelerates in US, China
  • Gold sees best week in the past ten

Though US equity indices bounced back on Friday after their worst selloff in 12 weeks, fears continue to build that the hoped for, rapid recovery following months of US economic inactivity won't be as quick as some anticipate. As well, a second wave of COVID-19 cases seems to be accelerating.

Over the past few days, Oklahoma and Arizona were among US states to report record increases in new COVID-19 cases, a month after loosening their lockdowns. On Saturday, Florida reported its own record increase of confirmed cases, 2,581.

Also on Saturday, China closed the largest wholesale food market in Beijing and placed the surrounding neighborhood in a fresh lockdown after 50 new coronavirus cases were reported in the country’s capital.

Officials at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said that states and cities will return to shutdowns if the number of cases rise significantly, which paints an uncertain picture for both the economy and upcoming trading week.

Equities Moved Higher On Friday, But Lost For The Week

As the trade came to a close this past week, bargain hunters took advantage of discounts on stocks that were the hardest hit in Thursday’s plunge. Sectors including Real Estate, (+3.2%), and beleaguered shares of Financials (+3%) and Energy, (+2.5%), outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index.

Cruise companies and airlines shot up. But the moves weren’t one-sided. After opening 2.1% higher, the benchmark index retraced Thursday’s lows and notched a new low as the World Health Organization warned of the risk of a second wave of the pandemic for countries ending lockdowns. However the index later reversed and closed into gains.

Even with Friday’s rebound, all four major indexes—the Dow Jones, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 as well as the S&P 500—dropped for the week. Investors appear to be surprised about both the lingering economic damage and the appearance of a second COVID-19 wave, but there have been ample warnings of both possibilities, including in some of our previous posts.

We have also discussed at length that the economy has no sustainable upward growth path without a medical solution to COVID-19, whether a vaccine or other form of treatment. We've also referred to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic which lasted until 1920. The first winter in which it appeared was just an introduction; the second wave, during the following winter, was much deadlier. At that time, there were four waves, infecting 500 million people, a third of the world’s population. It's still considered to be one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Though we're more than 100-years on from the Spanish Flu outbreak, the current similarities in terms of world-wide infection make the previous pandemic instructive. As such, we expect market volatility to be with us for some time as investors waver between hope and immediate reality.

Dow Daily
Dow Daily

On Thursday, ahead of the US session, we said the Dow's June 5 upside gap was concerning, as it might be an Exhaustion Gap and a setup for an Island Reversal. Since then, both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average completed Island Reversals.

While it’s noteworthy that Thursday’s plunge, as well as Friday’s retest, found support at the bottom of the rising wedge, the risk is still to the downside. An Island Reversal demonstrates exhaustion. However, it’s only a short-term bearish signal.

A fall below 22,500 for the DJIA would put us back on track for the rising wedge’s original bearish posture. Nonetheless, only a fall below the March lows would establish a long-term downtrend.

The current market narrative is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments last week, warning of a long-lasting economic impact from the coronavirus is what spurred the selloff. That's odd, considering that Powell delivered that same warning months ago, as did the IMF and other institutions and economists.

And yet investors just kept driving stocks higher, even in the face of devastating economic data. Now, ironically, when data has started bouncing back, and with nothing new pointing to additional chances of economic collapse, investors have become nervous. Perhaps, as we suggested in our earlier post about the Dow Jones, demand has simply dried up.

Treasuries, including for the 10-year benchmark, just about recouped all losses from the recent selloff.

UST 10Y Daily
UST 10Y Daily

Yields had fallen to a two-week low but found support at the rising trendline since April 20.

The dollar saw its first back-to-back gains since May 22 on Friday.

DXY Daily
DXY Daily

The global reserve currency had completed an hourly H&S bottom. This was the USD’s first weekly advance in four, producing a long-legged hammer that found support by the 200 DMA, realigning with the March lows. After the symmetrical triangle achieves its implied target, we expect an advance.

Gold jumped 3.2% last week.

Gold Daily
Gold Daily

It was the best performance for the precious metal since it gained 6.5% in the week starting April 6, when it completed a H&S pattern. The yellow metal also had its best week in ten, and its first weekly advance in four, despite the dollar also seeing a weekly gain in the same period.

Recently gold has been negatively correlated with equities. Does that mean if the commodity actualized the implied targets of its H&S and symmetrical patterns it might occur as equities sold off? Only time will tell.

Oil finished last week up 0.39%

Oil Daily
Oil Daily

What could have been a continuation pattern has been fizzling out, closing below the would-be bullish pattern for two days in a row. The 200 DMA looms above, as the price crossed below its uptrend line since late April, while the 50 DMA is rushing to realign from below and the 100 DMA realigns from above what may become the neckline of a H&S top.

Week Ahead

All times listed are EDT

Sunday

22:00: China – Industrial Production: expected to have risen to 5.0% in May, from 3.9%.

Monday

8:30: US – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: anticipated to have moved higher in June, to -27.50 from -48.50 previously.

21:30: Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes

Tuesday

2:00: UK – Claimant Count Change: forecast to tumble to 370.0K from 856.6.

5:00: Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment: seen to have risen 60.0 from 51.0.

8:30: US – Core Retail Sales: probably recovered to 5.1% from -17.2% in April.

Wednesday

2:00: UK – CPI: predicted to retreat to 0.5% from 0.8% YoY.

5:00: Eurozone – CPI: likely to have remained flat at 0.1%.

8:30: US – Building Permits: expected to have climbed to 1.248M from 1.066M.

8:30: Canada – Core CPI: likely to have risen to 0.1% from -0.4% previously.

10:30: US – Crude Oil Inventories: forecast to plummet to -1.738M from a lofty 5.720M.

Thursday

7:00: UK – BoE Interest Rate Decision: anticipated to remain at 0.10%.

8:30: US – Initial Jobless Claims: expected to come in at 1,300K after last week's 1,542K.

8:30: US – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: likely to have surged to -25.0 from -43.1.

Friday

2:00: UK – Retail Sales: seen to jump to 5.8% from -18.1%.

6:30: Russia – Interest Rate Decision: expected to be cut to 5.00% from 5.5%.

8:30: Canada – Core Retail Sales: probably fell to -12.8% from -0.4%.

Week Ahead: Equities Under Pressure As COVID 2nd Wave Threatens Open Economies
 

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Week Ahead: Equities Under Pressure As COVID 2nd Wave Threatens Open Economies

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Comments (29)
Michael Johnson
Michael Johnson Jun 17, 2020 3:07AM ET
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More than a third of Las Vegas is unemployed, with gig workers under represented in this number. Folks also haven't received their first unemployment checks for weeks. I can't imagine this is an isolated case. The economy is in much worse shape and can't be carried by the Fed forever.
Joseph Skrapits
Joseph Skrapits Jun 15, 2020 2:23AM ET
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I agree with your market assessment. There is too much uncertainty with Covid-19 resurgence in US and now in China, and the pace of economic recovery after the FOMC report: When in doubt, stay out!
Randall Wagner
Randall Wagner Jun 15, 2020 1:34AM ET
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That's because the dems and shorters want to damage the economy and the market. fake news and more fake news. More tests more cases ..less tests less cases. Hospital cases have not gone up go figure fake news.
Pwr Strk
Pwr Strk Jun 15, 2020 1:17AM ET
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enter GILEAD's remdesivir to control the chinese virus' second wave
Chris Scheer
Chris Scheer Jun 14, 2020 11:04PM ET
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Dear investors,The country is opening. You can either participate in the greatest recovery in American history, or you sit on the sideline. Choose wisely.
Jose Emenis
Jose Emenis Jun 14, 2020 10:35PM ET
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Trump said coronavirus is a hoax... Now there are 115,000 Americans who passed away, thanks to Trump... America is the epicenter for coronavirus mortality, thanks to Trump...
nick serata
nick serata Jun 14, 2020 9:44PM ET
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@Pinchas Cohen, you’re so full of it. The fact that you call it a “second wave” should be enough to say that you’re unreliable. Is the first wave done? No, it’s not. You have an agenda and idk what it is yet, maybe your shorted the markets, but youre only posting the negatives. Why cant you be objective? Yes, certain states that have been easy on ristrictions, have had an increase, that not surprising. But take a look at the states that have had the worst numbers, they are doing better. This probably doesnt benefit your position so you’ll continue to downgrade a very predictable outcome. Shame on you
Swann Karandikar
Swann Karandikar Jun 14, 2020 9:44PM ET
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Stop the scare mongering. Please tell us why not a second wave in country of origin. In the same breath, you should also mention, number of tests, how many r we covered and the growth in number tests. These type of stats would be valuable.
Josh Miller
Josh Miller Jun 14, 2020 9:05PM ET
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Give the covid BS a break nobody is buying it anymore. The media cant hold us down anymore so give it up already!!
Ryan Grandinetti
Ryan Grandinetti Jun 14, 2020 6:53PM ET
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I don't agree with most of your column's anymore, you used to be on point but now to far left & not based on facts. imho
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 6:53PM ET
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Ryan, is this comment addressed to me? "to far left"?
Ta Da
TDalt Jun 14, 2020 3:35PM ET
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The economy isn't going to shut down. That has been made very clear! This isn't the 2nd wave, it's just a roller coaster of the first one. Numbers haven't changed significantly. It's all fear-mongering by the media. Social distance, wear a mask, keep sanitizer on you, and you'll be alright.
Mikke Hernetkoski
Mikke Hernetkoski Jun 14, 2020 3:35PM ET
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Agreed.
Bryan Wall
Bryan Wall Jun 14, 2020 3:35PM ET
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I agree that your suggestions will prevent spreading, but doesn't matter when Leftist politicians want to shut everything down except riots.
Ollie North
Ollie North Jun 14, 2020 3:00PM ET
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ALSO  I doubt there will be any 2nd wave............. we are just seeing a bounce in the 1st wave because  people do not follow rules for safety........  protests are good example...
Ollie North
Ollie North Jun 14, 2020 2:57PM ET
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GOLD is generally always GOOD in times of uncertainty.............and things remain very uncertain.
Bryan Wall
Bryan Wall Jun 14, 2020 2:57PM ET
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I tend to agree but GOLD plummeted this past March with the 1st wave. Shouldn't it have gone up drastically?
Invest Right
Invest Right Jun 14, 2020 2:57PM ET
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Bryan Wall See my earlier comment below.
Gautam Lillaney
Gautam Lillaney Jun 14, 2020 2:31PM ET
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Isnt Pinchas Cohen a writer for this site? Why is he getting involved in personal spats? Thats not very educational
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 2:31PM ET
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I am extending my post into the feedbacks, interactive.
Emile Goffas
Emile Goffas Jun 14, 2020 2:31PM ET
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Thin skin.
Invest Right
Invest Right Jun 14, 2020 2:03PM ET
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Thanks for the analysis Pinchas. Informative as usual. With regards to gold, I think it's not helpful reading into whether gold is co-related with the equities trend or inversely related. Having gone back to study how it behaved in 2000, 2008 and this time around, my conclusion is that it gold only goes up INITIALLY when the market turmoil starts and then very soon ALWAYS sells off along with the equities. By very soon, I mean sometimes within days after the beginning of the market downside. I am not going to speculate as to why but that's my theory and I haven't come across any data to contradict it. I fully expect it to crash with the equities if the selloff in equities becomes severe. Do you agree with the theory Pinchas?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 2:03PM ET
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Thanks for your comments. I'm trying to understand what the theory.
Nagesh Goddubarla
Nagesh Goddubarla Jun 14, 2020 1:50PM ET
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What about gold? This week
Nagesh Goddubarla
Nagesh Goddubarla Jun 14, 2020 1:49PM ET
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What is the forecast for NIkkie this week ?
Uri Kest
Uri Kest Jun 14, 2020 1:29PM ET
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Thanks. I was waiting for your analysis on the friday bounce-back. some have been saying that a second lockdown would never be implemented, even if there is a second wave of infections. In other words, there isn't a real concern of another economic shutdown looming ahead. Do you think that is true?
Etienne Schoen
Etienne Schoen Jun 14, 2020 1:29PM ET
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Whether a lockdown will be installed doesn't matter too much - see Sweden. The economic impact is more or less the same ... when people are afraid due to medicin reasons, nobody goes to participate im the economy more than the absolut minimum - food, utilities nothing else. Of course, no vacation, no entertainment besides TV, no restaurants etc. And the worst ... the positive outlook will be devastated!
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 1:29PM ET
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Strife Leon
Strife Leon Jun 14, 2020 1:29PM ET
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Sweden economy still doing better than lockdown counties (I saw not long ago a comparison with uk). Furthermore the downturn of economy in Sweden is due to the fact that SE is a export country, and it doesn't export much when other countries are closed. If no other country would have imposed lockdown I am pretty confident economy would have been much less impacted. In Sweden we see in fact that activity limitations are mainly for people in the risk groups, while the rest of the society has maintained a decent internal demand. I believe that as we see in China an phenomenon of "revenge shopping" after the lockdowns, we will see "revenge traveling" and "revenge spending" in general as soon as a vaccine will be available at least for the risk groups (or a therapy). I turned from a bear to a bull reading the scientific publications of Oxford vaccine (I am a scientist, not an economist tho), as it seems things are going much faster than previously predicted.
Nirgun Pandey
Nirgun Pandey Jun 14, 2020 12:56PM ET
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Suddenly decided to pay attention... How do you with such certainty attribute the decline in stock market to people paying attention. Or you just write what you all of a sudden think?
Nirgun Pandey
Nirgun Pandey Jun 14, 2020 12:55PM ET
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Suddenly decided to pay attention. How do you with such certainty attribute the decline in stock market to people paying attention. Or you just write what you think is true?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 12:55PM ET
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I read articles.
Victor Yakov
Victor Yakov Jun 14, 2020 10:52AM ET
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if you are negative on the economy, why don't you short then?
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Donald Zellman
Donald Zellman Jun 14, 2020 10:52AM ET
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I haven’t played with options yet. My plan was to be out before I return to the office, but now it looks like I’ll be teleworking for awhile.
Donald Zellman
Donald Zellman Jun 14, 2020 10:52AM ET
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Pinchas Cohen You’re right. I bought because the price targets were all raised. So many other stocks go up after that kind of news. I’ve seen Kohls jump after their target was reduced (way before the recent retail stocks were jumping). I feel manipulated sometimes by the analysts’ target prices. Walmart seemed like a safe bet for me. Part of me wonders if i should’ve cut my losses at $1k and I would’ve had more $ to put into hotter stocks. Oh well. Every day is a learning experience for me. I’m just a software engineer trying to make s few bucks while I’m home with extra time to spare during the pandemic. My bet is Walmart continues lower until some bad news about the 2nd wave or it gets closer to X dividend.
Donald Zellman
Donald Zellman Jun 14, 2020 10:52AM ET
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Oops. I’m at 500 x $124.09. Can’t type these days.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 10:52AM ET
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Donald Zellman  If you've actually learned from the experience, it was well worth it. Rome wasn't built in a day. About your feeling manipulated - I'm often accused of doing that.  I have often shared my uncertainty and second guessing. It's really funny that someone thinks I expect to manipulate the stock market with my posts. There are conflicting opinions in any subject matter. No one knows what will happen. I've been right, and I've been wrong. I simply assess the situation ,to my understanding, and discuss it. Don't make a decision based on what I or anyone says, simply learn from it and come to your own decisions.
Donald Zellman
Donald Zellman Jun 14, 2020 10:52AM ET
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Pinchas Cohen I understand. I won’t take price targets so literally anymore. Sometimes the stocks hit the target in a day and other times, it takes months. Or, it might never hit the target. Nice chatting with you.
Michael Perry
Michael Perry Jun 14, 2020 10:41AM ET
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THERE IS NO SECOND WAVE!At least not yet. The current rise in some states is a continuation of the first wave.Dr Fauci said  on Friday increases in cases in several states were not necessarily indicative of a “second spike” of infections.“When you start to see increases in hospitalisation, that’s a surefire situation that you’ve got to pay close attention to,” Fauci said...and the statistics show that, most importantly, the morbidity rate is trending down even as the case counts go up which supports the common knowledge that viruses weaken as they continue to morph/evolve.Likewise, the hospitalization ratio is also going down relative to the rise in cases.Wall Street Panicked based on biased fear mongering Lame Street Media reports which report only the numbers that fit their narrative.
Greg Dennis
Greg Dennis Jun 14, 2020 10:10AM ET
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Pinchas, it's called discourse, if your going to put your opinions on an open platform expect others to have their own view and also share it. I look forward to both you a Larry continuing sharing your knowledge. Thank you both.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 10:10AM ET
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Greg, I'm not sure what message you're responding to. Greg invalidated my opinion. I stood up for it and asked him why he's reading any opinion, since it's a Fed world. Why, then, do you feel the need to school me about what a discourse is?
Al Balma
Al Balma Jun 14, 2020 10:09AM ET
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Which second wave? We hadn't stopped the first. Congratulations conservatives! You managed to make a very successful strategy fail with your impatience. We could have prevented tens of thousands, potentially millions of deaths, were you not so rushed to reopen the economy like a crazy cult!
Troy Fennell
Troy Fennell Jun 14, 2020 9:47AM ET
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correct me if I'm wrong, but did he just say 500 million people was a third if the world's population?
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 9:47AM ET
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Yes, he did :) - at the time.
Luna Ley
Luna Ley Jun 14, 2020 9:28AM ET
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Rule of thumb, over 50 moving average, buy the dip!
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Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 9:28AM ET
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Luna Ley  Well, yeah, it's a valid opinion. There are many and contradictory ones.
Daniel Bohbot
Daniel Bohbot Jun 14, 2020 9:28AM ET
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The dip is going to be much steeper. Careful what you buy. In a couple of months it can be down 30+%
Daniel Bohbot
Daniel Bohbot Jun 14, 2020 9:28AM ET
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Luna Ley good lick with that. With unemployment still on the rise. Threat of a second wave which is rapidly expanding, street riots, etc. To believe that theres a 47% upside to the current markets can only be believed if one is deaf and blind(and dumb) unless the forecast in based on 2022 projections. Btw now and end of 2020 I say much better chane of retesting Mar lows than this proposterous upside of 20%. If your basing your strategies on 50 moving average.......Hope you don’t bet the house. I’d hate to see you having to sleep on a park bench one day soon.
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 14, 2020 9:28AM ET
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Daniel Bohbot  I have not trusted the rally thus far - for which I was ridiculed. Factually, I was wrong. Prices went up, not down. I would make the same decision again, because I'm not in the prophecy business. Still, you seem very sure of your opinion. That's not a good trait for trading, if you don't mind my saying so. You can have a strong opinion, but remind yourself that the market is nothing more than a glorified voting machine. Whatever the money vote is what will happen, whether it's justified and rational or not.
Luna Ley
Luna Ley Jun 14, 2020 9:28AM ET
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Daniel Bohbot I already made 35% prifit, booked them. Positioned from Thurs and Friday sell off. Next sell point is arond 26500, monthly is still bullish and daily too.
 
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