The most significant event of today is the Federal Reserve Rate Decision. The market participants attention will likely be there, but no rate change is expected from the Fed. The Fed has continued to say that they’re looking at further hiking rates despite the recent slowdown in U.S. data. US inflation is top of mind. However, the FOMC soften its hawkish outlook for monetary policy would hurt the US dollar . Also, the balance sheet reduction is important for a future rate decision.
Also, UK Preliminary GDP growth for the second quarter will be the main release of Today. The GDP data is expected to ease to 1.7% from 2.0% in the previous quarter. A negative surprise would weigh on GBP/USD which is trading below the 1.3120 key resistance level.
US New Home Sales to be announced today will be important for markets. New home sales in June are expected to ease to 1.4% from 2.9% a month ago. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the dollar index.
Crude oil inventories today are to be announced in the US and are is expected to decline by 2.98 M this week. It may be important for oil prices which tumbled within the week. Note that oil stocks declined by 4.73 M barrels in last week.
Daily Technical Analysis
EUR/USD - Ahead of the Fed policy decision, The EUR/USD pair is testing the 1.1630 major support level. As long as the price sustains above 1.1630 on a daily basis we will face resistance levels at 1.1665 and 1.1740, On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.1630, the profit taking action may continue and the next support level will be at 1.1540.
Support: 1.1630 – 1.1540 – 1.1445
Resistance: 1.1665 – 1.1740 – 1.1810
GOLD - Gold showed a profit taking action and it is trading below the key resistance level of 1255. As long as the yellow metal trades below 1255, the pullbacks may continue. At this point, we will face resistance level at 1236 and 1226. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1255 again the next support level will be at 1273.
.Support: 1236 – 1226 - 1210
Resistance: 1255 - 1273 – 1286
GBP/USD - Ahead of UK GDP data, the GBPUSD pair is trading above the 1.2985 support level. If the price shows an upward movement, we will face 1.3050 and 1.3120 as resistance levels. On the other hand, In the event that the price shows a bearish action below 1.2985, the next support level will be at 1.2860. However, as long as the price remains above the daily support level of 1.2860, the downward movement may be limited.
Support : 1.2985 – 1.2860 – 1.2775
Resistance : 1.3050 – 1.3120 – 1.3185