Amid geopolitical developments in the Middle East and rising tensions in Lebanon, oil prices rose in the first session of the day, with U.S. crude contracts up by 0.5%, exceeding $68.50 per barrel. This comes after significant declines in energy prices last week due to increasing concerns about demand, particularly after China’s stimulus package—designed to boost market confidence—failed to do so. However, geopolitical tensions have helped support oil prices today.
Conversely, Chinese stocks experienced a positive impact from the stimulus packages, rising for the ninth consecutive day thanks to government incentives that attracted investors. The CSI 300 index jumped by 6.5%, reaching its highest level since 2015, supported by a series of stimulus measures that included interest rate cuts, easing of home-buying rules, and liquidity support, which helped the market recover from its previous losses by 20%.
Wall Street Trends
Shifting to Wall Street, the market is heading to end September with a positive performance. The three major U.S. indices ended the week with gains for the third consecutive time, despite the declines seen at Friday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.59%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.95%, and the S&P 500 recorded weekly gains of 0.62%.
Markets are awaiting further signals this week regarding the magnitude of the interest rate cuts, beginning with a speech by Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, on Monday evening, where he will discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy at the National Association for Business Economics conference. Tomorrow, Tuesday, we will follow the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to rise to 47.6, along with job openings data, which is expected to drop slightly to 7.64 million jobs.
This week will be full of employment data, most notably the Nonfarm Payrolls report released on Friday, expected to show an increase to 144,000 jobs after being at 142,000. This report will be accompanied by U.S. unemployment data, expected to remain stable at 4.2%, along with the average hourly earnings, which are expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Dow Jones Index (DJ30) Analysis:
Bullish Scenario: Break of resistance level (Buy stop) - Entry point: 42340
First target (TP1): 42400
Second target (TP2): 42640
Third target (TP3): 42475
Stop loss (SL): 42280
Bearish Scenario: Break of support level (Sell stop) - Entry point: 42230
First target (TP1): 42155
Second target (TP2): 42040
Third target (TP3): 41885
Stop loss (SL): 42230
Nasdaq index (NAS100) Analysis:
Bullish Scenario: Break of resistance level (Buy stop) - Entry point: 20100
First target (TP1): 20300
Second target (TP2): 20510
Third target (TP3): 20735
Stop loss (SL): 19900
Bearish Scenario: Break of support level (Sell stop) - Entry point: 19825
First target (TP1): 19715
Second target (TP2): 19565
Third target (TP3): 19385
Stop loss (SL): 19955
S&P 500 Analysis:
Bullish Scenario: Break of resistance level (Buy stop) - Entry point: 5750
First target (TP1): 5765
Second target (TP2): 5785
Third target (TP3): 5810
Stop loss (SL): 5735
Bearish Scenario: Break of support level (Sell stop) - Entry point: 5725
First target (TP1): 5705
Second target (TP2): 5685
Third target (TP3): 5665
Stop loss (SL): 5740
Gold XAU/USD Analysis:
Bullish Scenario: Break of resistance level (Buy stop) - Entry point: 2661
First target (TP1): 2668
Second target (TP2): 2676
Third target (TP3): 2685
Stop loss (SL): 2653
Bearish Scenario: Break of support level (Sell stop) - Entry point: 2649
First target (TP1): 2642
Second target (TP2): 2630
Third target (TP3): 2613
Stop loss (SL): 2657
Bitcoin BTC/USD Analysis:
Bullish Scenario: Break of resistance level (Buy stop) - Entry point: 64850
First target (TP1): 65200
Second target (TP2): 65650
Third target (TP3): 66150
Stop loss (SL): 64500
Bearish Scenario: Break of support level (Sell stop) - Entry point: 64350
First target (TP1): 64000
Second target (TP2): 63450
Third target (TP3): 62950
Stop loss (SL): 64700
Risk Warning:
The scenarios presented above are multiple, and each requires careful consideration. When using this analysis, please adhere to the specified points and conditions to validate a support or resistance break as an entry point. Ensure that exit decisions, whether due to trend reversal or otherwise, align with the defined scenarios or your personal capital management strategy.
Always employ a capital management approach that is suitable for your portfolio and the inherent risks of the market, particularly during major news events. Please note that this technical analysis is subject to error and may not always be accurate. Your decision to enter a trade based on the information in this article is solely your responsibility, and I disclaim any liability for losses incurred.