Last week I tweeted a chart of a ratio I have been watching for quite a while now. That ratio tracks the performance of the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSE:IVE) relative to the iShares S&P 500 Growth (NYSE:IVW) ETF. And it looked to me at the time that the former was breaking out relative to the latter after a very long and painful period of underperformance that extends far longer than the time frame in the chart below.
It’s gone on for so long, in fact, that value is now cheaper than it has ever been relative to growth – even more so than in March of 2000 at the peak of the dotcom mania, which is saying something.
One indicator that would suggest that this reversal in favor of value over growth may be sustainable and more than just another blip is the direction of the yield curve. As noted recently by John Authers, value seems to benefit from a steepening yield curve. And, because the Fed recently began lowering short-term interest rates and appears to be set to continue with further cuts this year, it seems the yield curve should likely steepen in coming months.
However, another important inference can be drawn from the shift away from growth and momentum into value (and a steepening yield curve): this sort of widespread risk aversion is usually characteristic of a bear market for equities (as is a steepening yield curve driven by steady rate cuts).
For these reasons, I believe value investing’s long slog may finally be over but so may the long bull market.